Game is 10-handed, €2-4 but the table just agreed to make the UTG straddle mandatory, so essentially 2-4-8.

Villain is a 40yo old school pro, playing somewhere between TAG and LAG. He doesn't look particularly tilted, but he did just stack an opponent when his AA lost to QQ for ~1700 pot. He starts with ~1100.

Hero is a 30 something reg, i think my image is fairly TAG, although villain has seen me do splashy things in earlier sessions. I'm on a nice little streak tonight, up a bit and mostly winning medium-sized pots without showdown. I cover the table.

The hand:
HJ (active rec with ~1500) opens to 30.
CO calls.
Hero calls from the SB with 55
Villain completes from the straddle.

Fourway to a flop

Flop (124):
KJ7

Checks round.

Turn:
KJ7 5

Hero leads 60.
Villain raises 180.
2 folds.
Hero calls.

River (484)
KJ7 5 8

Hero checks,
Villain bets 320,
Hero jams for ~900 total.

As always, any comments or feedback on any part of the hand is appreciated. Thanks in advance.

I reraise turn bet to 850. I think we should be trying to get it in here cause imo we're only beat by 1 other set (7s), and there are quite of few bad riv cards for us/plenty of draws we can extract value from that won't on the river.

As played I probably check call river.

Besides 77 I'm a bit worried about his semi-bluffs that now have a straight. T9, 64 and 96cc. If these hands are all in his range, including the off-suit combos (you know the guy; does he complete those pre? Can he be raising those on the turn?), then there are a lot of value hands that beat you, and perhaps not a whole lot that you beat and can/will call a shove. Does he complete K7s, K5s, J7s? I haven't done the math and maybe it's way too nitty, but thinking about it I'm actually leaning towards check/call.

Turn is also interesting. I think I would just 3bet/gii to gain value from his two pair hands and make his semi-bluffs pay. We're only losing to 77 at this point.

Pot is $103 before Villain has to call $22 from the straddle. That's tempting odds for a lot of hands to call.

Lets take out KK, AK, and JJ, because we assume he will raise PF with those hands.

So what is left that makes sense on the turn? KJs, QTs, 77, T9s, 98s and probably 75s and 64s.
Hero has 67% equity against this range. Add in off-suit variants and that percentage only goes up higher. Same if he has a AcXc.

Questions about Villain - would he call PF with Kjo, and is he good enough to lay down top-two here? That's important to know...

But you guys are deep, am I right (1100 eff)? There is 364 on the turn, when Villain raises you. Is he really going to stack-off with top two, for that much? He still has 890 left behind, so 364 + 890 = 1254 what the pot is when you go AI. 890 to call and win a pot of 1254. He should fold pretty much every thing that you beat, and do it correctly.

If you raise AI on the turn and get called, it will only be by 77 or K J. Against that narrow range you are only 20%. Doesn't seem worth it. Its even worse if he slow-played JJ PF, which is definitely a possible scenario.

Add in some straigh-flush combos QTc and T9c. Against that calling range you are 36%. Still not worth it. In a weird way, you would be turning your hand into a bluff if you go AI here. Why would you do that?

So calling him, with the plan of calling whatever the river is (unless its the case 5), makes good sense. I would not plan to check raise AI on the river, as you did, for the same reasons as on the turn - what hands call you that you beat?

The other option, which could be fun, is re-raising him on the turn to 360 - double his raise. If he shoves, back over the top you could probably assume the worst, and fold, but you are also allowing/forcing his draws, and KJ, to call, and give more value.

In the write-up you suggested that he might be tilting, as he had just lost a big pot when his AA got cracked. If he is tilting, its even more reason to just call turn, and give him an opportunity to fire another bluff. Raising turn just makes him play correctly - don't do that!

You should never automatically assume that someone is going to fold two pair on a board where no straights or flushes are even possible... Furthermore, if this guy raises a draw on the turn and is forced to fold to our 3bet (and that's assuming he will fold at all*) , I guarantee he won't think he played it "correctly" and be happy at all. *Thirdly, why would you assume a turn 3bet would be a shove?

Id would've either
1) Reraise turn and get all in on the river
2) Check/call the river
3) Lead the river so he cant check behind.

I think there are very few hands that you beat that will call a river crai. Definitely dont hate your line at all though.

PS...Sorry for being a word nit but, the straddler called the preflop raise. He didnt "complete from the straddle"

OP has stated that this guy is 'an old school pro'. It seems unlikely that a decent player would call with KJo PF imho - hence why I have discounted this hand to just KJs PF. Assume that all combos of KJs call a turn jam, and the odds are still only 27% for hero. If he ends up with JJ here some of the time it gets worse.

If he is calling a raise OOP with a hand that's easily dominated, then I give him less credit than OP.

The point was that he would have played correctly, as in if he could see the cards we have, and work out his equity vs the pot odds, then he would fold there all the time. Whether or not he likes having to fold it is irrelevant. This guy is an 'old school pro' - old school pros should understand basic poker math.

I didn't - read my post in full.

No one is folding KJo in this spot, deepstacked from their own straddle, pro or not. Literally no one. The only people that would fold this are those who would never straddle in the first place. Honestly, I would also expect K7s, J7s and K5s to call here. I do expect KJs (maybe even KJo) to be 3bet here a fair amount of the time, though.

I also think draws would have difficulty folding to a "normal sized" 3bet, to put it mildly. Especially disguised straight draws have good IO's against sets and two pair hands. What I'm not sure about however, is how often (if at all) villain will raise his open enders and double gutters. But against hero's turn sizing, I'm guessing he could definitely raise a lot of them.

This is a really fun hand to analyze. Skipping ahead to the turn

I'm curious what your definition of "Old School Pro" means. "Old school" leads me to think he plays pretty tight and mostly in position with good cards, "Pro" leads me to believe he will raise with good draws in spots like this.

On to the hand:

Turn is a definite lead spot for you, likely to action from all 1 pair hands straight draws, gut shots, hybrid draws and two pair from the BB that was waiting for the PFR to C-Bet. The only hands that you are really scared of is 77 from the BB and KK/JJ from the PFR that decided to get tricky.

When you see the raise on the turn, my initial reaction is to raise. I don't think that this spot is a pure bluff and I don't think he is raising with a 1 pair hand. He has some sort of equity either with a made hand (77, KJ, K7s. J7s, 75s) or with a Combo draw. I want him to commit a big portion of his stack on the turn OR just take the pot down now. I think raise somewhere in the range of $525 - $575 is ideal. A raise to this size is going to force him to make a big decision for half of his stack and will greatly decrease the SPR moving forward. It's going to turn your hand face up as a made hand (top 2 pair or a set), but it puts V in a tough spot either with made hand (top 2, which probably has to call) or a Combo Draw with a ton of equity that's tough to fold and is probably not profitable to call with (if he's a pro he'll know that this situation is probably not profitable or is right on the cusp with the Implied Odds he needs in this situation).

As played on the river: Check/call all day. Either he is bluffing with a hand that missed, or his draws got there on this river. I don't think he is paying off your shove with any worse hands so I don't see much value in shoving.

I am OK with the turn, but I do like a re-raise better. If I just flat his raise on the turn, I lead the river again -- making it look like a blocking bet, maybe $250, hoping to induce. It would be gross if he checked behind on the river.

As played, I probably just flat his river bet because I can't imagine what worse is calling?

So what happened OP?

I really prefer a raise on the turn. I don't think you're scaring them off of their hands, and we don't want to let them hit a draw. After the turn action, I probably just flat the river, but I'm fine with the jam as well.

Thanks for the replies guys.

I guess the term 'old school pro' wasn't as clear as i thought i would be. I meant he's been playing for 15+ years and is more a 'feel' player than math based. That said he is pretty aggro and (semi)bluffs often.

My reasons to not raise turn: I think he is folding other than 77 to any sizeable 3bet. That would mean i do fold out all his combo draws, but it also means i miss his bluffs when he bricks river. Min 3bet seems counter productive, it prices in his draws but takes away his ability to bluff later.

Because i want him to bluff, i think checking river is better than leading. I thought he might call lighter on the river because the odds for him where better, plus i still can have some fancy play syndrome type bluffs. He's seen me make them before . Clearly my x/jam on the river is waaaay too ambitious, considering results.

Results: villain tanks for 20 seconds, mumbles that i'm never playing KJ this way and openfolds a set of 7's. Valuebluff FTW.

Thoughts on his fold?

well, he is right, you're never playing KJ that way. Good value bluff I guess.

He check-owned himself on the flop.

Nice hand.

I'm not sure I could have folded 7s there, but good bluff.

Seems you'd raise KK and maybe JJ pre. JJ is about the only hand that makes sense, but still weirdly played. You should not have 88. Are you calling a raise from SB with 4c6c?

Your line doesn't make a whole lot of sense, but you put enough money in to scare off your opponent. Well done.

Haha, great result... but if you had done that on the turn you would have been screwed, for reasons already stated.

I think his fold is correct. He's right to say that you would not play KJ that way.

So what is your value range here? A slow-played JJ, 55, T9, 96s, 64s. He has only 10% equity against that range.

As far as bluffs go AQ, QT, and AT make sense for you to have based on action... turning those hands into a bluff on the river is a bold line, but that probably makes sense... especially as you will be perceived as very strong when you check raise... but against
J, 55, AcQc, AcTc, QcTc-Qc9c, T9s, 96s, 64s, T9o
he still only has 20% equity.

In order for him to justify a call, there has to be more bluffs in your range such as all combos of QTo (you wouldn't call a raise with a QTo OOP would you Honey!?)... and you are check raising a river, so its not likely that you do.