Hero 25-year-old asian.

Hero usually play TAG style. But I have been getting good cards pre, like medium pokect pair and high cards but does not flop very well. So in recent 1-2 hours, hero has been raise frequently pre but does not take down many pots. In addition, Hero made a 350 dollar bluff on river into a 300 dollar pot and got called by a set.

So far hero's image should be a laggy and not winning

V: an 50-60 white reg guy. He is a somewhat decent player. Hero has never play with him before but I saw him had big stacks several sessions on other table. He should be a winning reg there. He plays very aggressive and capable of making moves. He never limps and he is capable of 3bet light. He does not play many hands preflop.


eff 550 hero covers.

Hero has QQcd on UTG+1

Hero opens to 20, only V calls in MP.

Flop 4d4h8d Pot 43 H bet 30 V called
Turn Th Pot 103 H bet 75, V raised to 225

Hero?

Fold. At worst he's got a delayed semi-bluff, but that's pretty unlikely on a paired board. Lots of 88/TT in his range, maybe some 45s. Even given V's aggression and your hard-luck image, I just don't see us calling river here, so why continue?

who knows what he has here. so you have to go with feel and what usually happens when a raise is made with the board paired. the raiser usually has around trips or better.

when my range is too wide on the turn, would V really raise with 88 and TT?
When my range is too wide on the turn, would V be more likely to bluff with some combo draws hands on the turn where he has great FE?

my basic advice: check turn. it's a way ahead/way behind situation; it's hard to get 3 streets of value; your bets get no respect which means it's very difficult to gauge why a villain is raising you (bc of image or bc of his hand). also if you've been raising pre, cbetting, then giving up, this is a great spot to check and not give up and induce a bet from floats, semi-bluffs, etc.

several things to say here:

a. in these hands where you're raising pre/missing, is your line to cbet or just c/f? have you been firing multiple barrels with air?

if you've been raising pre and making a continuation bet and then giving up or folding to a donk, then we shouldn't assume villain puts you on air after your raise/bet/bet line. in fact, he may be raising bc he thinks you have a hand.

b. villain can't get in stacks without raising turn (unless you bet river and he shoves). if he does have value, it's going to be a turn raise to setup a river bet for around half pot. if he has trips+ he's not going to want to call and risk a bad river or you checking and then having to settle for a value bet when he can raise turn and play for stacks.

c. how wide is your range on the turn? are you going to be firing 2 bullets here with Ax, 77, KQ, etc?

d. turn is a pretty good spot to c/c. it's going to be hard to get 3 streets of value from a good reg with QQ on this board.

e. if you think he has a log of combo draws (65s, 76s, etc.) then you also have to think he has a fair amount of 4s too since you're giving him credit for playing a lot of suited connectors and AXs type hands.

f. this raise commits your stack, which is another reason why checking turn is prob the best play.

g. he's certainly bluffing a non-zero percentage of the time. however, how often is he actually bluffing turn?

I don't like c-betting flop and giving up on turn unless a very bad turn cards come. That is burning money.

a. I triple barrel overpair on this type run outs a lot live to balance my bluff. V just saw I dumped 350 into 300 river bluff 30 mins ago. Checking turn is losing value for me with my image.

b. I agree he would raise turn some times with 45s, or A4s. I'm saying that he is not raising boat as he knows that I'm capable of tripple barreling thin value and bluff

c. I fire many hands that I pick up some backdoor equity. 77 no, Ax with two overs maybe. Ax with frontdoor flush draw or backdoor flush draw, yes. Some hands that pick up backdoor straight equity I would barrel as well. However, I believe my perceived tripple barrel range is even wider in V's eyes

d. Given my image, I would get paid tripple barrel sometimes. I'm aggressive in V's eyes as well

e. Yes. True. Given his preflop play, he can only have very few suited 4s. Maybe 34s, 45s, A4s. Those are 6 combos. He can have combos that pick up backdoor flush or backdoor straight equity, or pair and backdoor flush draw which are a lot.

f. I'm not actually that afraid of committing my stacks here. I would more afraid of checking then losing values or giving him free cards

g. who know what is his bluff frequency? But given my image, I think his bluff frequency is higher than usual in this spot

use his tendencies more often than try to play according to how you may think he thinks about you. use that much less.

I would fold turn. Most players who aren't terrible at poker have a pure value range when they call flop then raise turn (it's just their genius idea of slowplaying one street then fastplaying the next with their value hand), and since there isn't a worse hand then QQ that he's value raising I expect him to have trips or a boat very frequently.

I don't think an older player live would know better that him calling turn with those hands is much more profitable. It's just a common response by non-professionals to raise there. I also don't think they would risk that much on a pure bluff since a reg looking live player is mostly tight in those situations.

a) you're right. It's a clear cbet. I would cbet, bet dry turns but c/c wet ones and c/f river, and on dry turns I would bet turn and against players who aren't stations then c/decide river based on reads and his bet sizing. Betting small for value on the river could be effective too if it runs out dry.

b) I do think he would sometimes raise boats on the turn simply because he doesn't really know better.

c) good about barreling equity and not betting 77 type hands. I do think, though, that barreling two overs is not very profitable because our outs aren't as clean as flush draws or straight draws.

d) I think a more wet turn would be a better c/c on the turn. On this board I think most Tx. 8x, and other pairs, definitely JJ, would call turn/fold river and we want to bet against them for value on the turn.

e) I think a live reg player would just have a value range if he raises turn here, so even though it's not a ton of combos of 4x or boats, it's just more likely he has those if he takes this line.

f) yep, you miss too much value from Tx, 8x, JJ, 99 type hands to check turn. Your hand is good enough to get two streets of value, and you want to get that value on flop and turn.

g) yeah, given your image he might be bluffing turn more often, it's just generally uncommon for people to bluff raise turn here, so it'd have to be a very high bluff frequency for you to call a turn raise. I think if you call a turn raise you will see a river bet very often also, and it's not best to call a turn raise then fold river because of the frequency in which there is a river bet, and I think a river bet will happen very often, which makes a calling a turn raise ineffective if you would check/fold river.