Prehand Descriptions
Villain 1: Young Asian guy. No previous history. Quiet. At the table several orbits, but hasn't been involved in any big pots or done anything noteworthy. Initial guess is that he's relatively tight by LLSNL standards and probably straightforward.

Villain 2: 40's WG. Generally ABC reg.

Hero: MAWG. Laughing it up with some other regs. Raise more than average pre, bet more often and larger than average post. V1 will think I'm a decent player. V2 won't have previous history.

$2/4 NL (9 handed)

MP Hero ($750)
Button V2 (~$500)
SB V1(~$500)

Hero is dealt two cards. (Not being coy here. I think it was pocket deuces, but I really don't remember.)

1 limp, H calls $4, 1 call $4, V1 calls $4, V2 calls $4

Flop ($19) A J 9
Checks to V2 who bets $15. V1 calls. Folds to H who thinks for a couple seconds and raises to $75. V2 folds. V1 tanks and calls.

I felt V2 would likely have raised or folded most aces preflop and so he probably wasn't strong. V1's call also suggested lack of strength. This seemed like a good spot to attack.

Turn ($164) 6

V1 checks, Hero ?

Thoughts on the flop line?

Would you fire the turn again? If so, how much?

What would your plan be for the river?

All comments appreciated.

It's spew. You have no blockers, little to no backup equity, rep nothing (you wouldn't overlimp with AJ/JJ/99, so you rep like AJ/A9 only) and no reason to think that V doesn't play middle-strength Ax this way.

What do we think he has. Possibly a set of 9s, AJ, A9 draw like QT, even just an Ace?

The turn really changes nothing, apart from turning 2p if he had A6 which seems unlikely. I'm not in love with the c/r bluff into two people, but I think we have to follow it through here. $140 so he feels he can get away from the hand on the river if a draw doesn't hit.

BTW - your hand is important, since your 22 beats a busted draw, and if he checks behind on river, we have a decision.

I understand your reasoning for c/r, but you rep absolutely nothing here. You limped pre so AA/JJ/99/AJ aren't usually possible. A9/J9 is more likely to bet flop than check it and hope a limper bets.

As played, give up. The tightest and least active player in the hand called your c/r. Not really any good barrel cards either.

Your hand IS very important.

I am inclined to push the turn if my hand can beat a busted draw (K high).

in the low limit games, I think many more people will call with draws than they will with weak made hands. So it is key to be able to beat the draws when they call a bluff.

You are repping a fairly small range of hands, but the number of hands he can call with are even less!

Raise pre.
AP I think you have to bet the turn. And shut it down if called.
How the hell do you remember the board with suits but don't remember with much certainty your hand? Lol

Thanks for the responses. Much appreciated.

Hoping to extend the discussion a bit...

I think the reason I went for this while consensus is that it's a bad idea is that I think most LLSNL V's aren't really doing very much (good) hand reading at all. I'm generally looking for ways to exploit V's mistakes -- in this case bet/fold and/or weak-tight rather than worrying about their hand reading skills.

2+2ers look at this and (correctly) point out that no hand really fits this line. Indeed, there were two V's at table that I wouldn't have considered this line against. They're good enough that they do hand read.

But are most LLSNL V's doing that? ABC reg has a ton of bet/folds in his repertoire and isn't likely going to want to call a x/r fairly deep and is also likely not to have a hand he'll commit with. How likely is he to analyze my line and decide he's going to call it off because it's probably a bluff?

I think tight passive guy probably does have a modest ace here. But ditto above. Is he really going to analyze my line, figure it's a bluff and then commit with his modest ace? Obviously if he's a station, he is. But if he were a station, I might have seen some hands worth noting. (For example, overvaluing TP is definitely worth noting, as is committing a chunk of his stack with a modest holding.)

Definitely not asking for input and then saying it's wrong. Based on responses I'm much less happy about the line now than I was at the time (and I agree, assuming I did have deuces, that does make a difference).

I'm curious about your thoughts on the balance between repping (which is important for V's with decent hand reading skills) vs. attacking V's that we think are likely weak/tight when they show weakness and allowing their own fears to rep something for us. In this case, perhaps J9s or nines that I didn't raise pre with.

Thanks again.

It's going to be more profitable in the long run to bluff when it makes sense to bluff. Sure, typical live players aren't properly hand reading, but they're usually trying in some capacity. It's going to be much more effective when we can rep value hands and/or have some equity.

EDIT: I'd like to add that it's also helpful when there are some good barrel cards for us (not the case in this hand).