2/4: AsKc against a reg (?)
09-15-2015
, 01:42 PM
Calling to draw here means we're targeting V's range that is ahead of Hero. That majority of that range is going to be flushes, with the discounted AQ and Q9.
So you are "targeting" V's value range when you consider your outs to call, and most of his value range is flushes (and other stuff)
When H calls the turn, and the 4th flush card hits -- even the most ******ed V's realized they are beat given H's line.
Quote:
You deflected that pretty well by giving the exact definition of a plan for the turn. Not the river.
The reality is, if you brick on the river and villain shoves, you're going to be in a situation where you're getting good odds to call. And you won't know whether to call or fold. You're simply avoiding this situation by taking the easier option in exchange for a huge chunk of EV.
You have quite possible found one of the nut worst spots in poker to be semi-bluffing in and are expecting me to believe a good player can be semi-bluffing here?
I challenge you to come up with a reasonable argument as to why semi-bluffing in this spot could possibly be good.
The reality is, if you brick on the river and villain shoves, you're going to be in a situation where you're getting good odds to call. And you won't know whether to call or fold. You're simply avoiding this situation by taking the easier option in exchange for a huge chunk of EV.
You have quite possible found one of the nut worst spots in poker to be semi-bluffing in and are expecting me to believe a good player can be semi-bluffing here?
I challenge you to come up with a reasonable argument as to why semi-bluffing in this spot could possibly be good.
I'm actually not avoiding the river situation. I'm admitting to myself that (as played) calling OTT puts H in a spot OTR where no amount of planning will help. Its going to be a bad spot (without a better read).
Since Hero's hand is actually relatively weak (its about the bottom of H's value range), and has reasonable draw to the (most likely) nuts, and V can have some (semi) bluffs here (QsJx for example) or has hands that simply will not put any more $$$ in the pot when the river
hits (Kx9s or 6s5s) but will put $$$ in now, and the read on V is that he's a "good LAG" who should be looking for spots to apply pressure on a nitty Hero...My plan for the river is to force V to make his decision now.
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Preflop, V limps in the HJ, so I'm going to eliminate [TT+, AQ, KQ] from his range. Perhaps we include all the Q9s, but only 2 Q9o combos... that's 6. But we would have expected V to raise some of these OTF, so discount these again to like 3 or 4.
I think we can easily give V all SC and S1C in
from QJ down. That's about 15 combos (8 SC and about 7 S1C -- not doing the exact math here).We can give V [KJ, KT, JT], but again, we should discount these since we didn't see a raise OTF.
Therefore, the majority of V's value range is flushes.
09-15-2015
, 05:14 PM
You misunderstood. I know Hero has the As. I'm saying he doesn't have to have the nut flush always to make it $125 OTT. He could be doing it with any two spades to keep us in (given stack sizes) because he only hates a 4th spade OTR and isn't afraid of any other cards.
