Prehand Descriptions

Villain: ~30's WG. We've played before. I don't have specific notes on him, so haven't seen him do anything particularly noteworthy. He's tight (actually tight, not simply less loose than typical LLSNL V's). I don't think he's particularly aggressive, but not a nit.

Hero: MAWG. Reg at the room. Comments indicate people think I'm a winning player. Typically LAG. V probably knows this. Sat down recently and haven't done anything unusual.

$2/4 NL (9 handed)

Button Hero (covers)
BB V (~$500)

Hero is dealt A A

UTG straddles $10. Folds to H, who raises to $35. Only V calls.

Typical sizing for me RFI vs straddle.

Flop ($81 after rake & BBJ) T 6 2
V checks, H bets $50, V calls

I cbet HUIP something like 80%. Typically around 2/3 pot. All routine so far.

Turn ($181) J

V checks, H bets $100, V jams for ~$460.

~$360 to win $381. H?

Tight player who isn't really aggressive jams turn? I can't imagine you are good here. Looks like TJ (not particularly tight from BB), TT, JJ and maybe 66 or 22, but much less likely -- seems he'd raise those on flop.

Given description, I fold (and NEVER show).

Edit: the only hands I think we could be ahead of are AsTs or AcJc, but they really don't fit his description. I think AcJc raises flop vs. LAG.

Villain thinks he has the best hand on the turn and is worried you have one or more draws on a board that is vastly more dangerous on the turn. If nothing else you can have AK/AQ and add in some flush draws and there are lots of bad river cards for villain.

Unless villain can turn up with KK/QQ this will be a lot of TT/66 and some JJ/22. It's annoying when villain shows KK/QQ but that isn't going to justify calling unless villain slow plays them preflop a lot or has 98s type hands in their range.

if that's your read on him, you should fold. He's probably protecting something.

plus BWT

Say V called instead of raised on turn, and river comes a brick, V bet pot size on river, are you going to fold in that hypothetical case? If you are not folding river I think you shouldn't fold turn. He could have KK QQ JcQc QcKc more likely than JJ TT JT, isn't it?

Pretty poor odds to call here vs his range.

You Beat A10s, AJc, KQc, KQs(maybe), I think with A10s and AJc he probably just flats the turn bet rather than shoving it in and only getting called by better hands.

You're behind J10 and sets, but there are more of these combos than combos of hands you beat. He would check jam turn with these hands because there are a lot of action killing rivers on this board.

I would just fold here.

Based on your read, fold unless you can soul read him onto something other than a set/2pr.