Quote:
Originally Posted by Rise4ndFire
It's ~3AM. Most of the rec players have retired for the evening. At my table, there's a good mix of decent players and ones that give action. Only one other guy has been playing as long as I have; most of the others came in for some late Sat/early Sun poker. Generally a loose-passive game, as you'll find ~3/4 of the time around this casino.
Hero ($850): Mid 20's. Been playing pretty snug poker as I've been somewhat card dead while trying to get a feel for the new players at the table. Not sure if I have much of an image besides being young, having the most chips at the table, and not playing many hands.
V1 ($200): Hasn't been out of line really. Seems like the loose passive player that calls too much out of the blinds and won't put up much resistance.
V2 ($270): Came from a broken table, has been quite talkative and calls pretty wide. Will look his opponents up with middle pair OTF and let them define their hand. Not someone I would feel comfortable bluffing yet.
Hero (UTG +1) Raises to $15 with KQss, 3 folds, V1 calls from SB, V2 calls from BB.
Flop: ($40) JhTd6h V1 checks, V2 checks, Hero checks.
Turn ($40) 9c V1 leads for $25, V2 folds, Hero raises to $70, V1 quickly calls.
River ($180) 4h V1 checked dark. Hero notices that V1 hasn't looked at the river card yet. I'm 70% sure he hasn't looked at the river. He's staring straight up. A friendly dialogue ensues:
Hero: You haven't looked at the river yet.
V1: I don't want to. I'd rather you bet first.
Hero: I don't have to bet.
V1: (Staring up)
V1 has less than a PSB behind. If I'm going for value I think I'm putting him all in, but the way V played the hand it feels like a flush draw >50% of the time. I'm not that experienced or talented with the live reads, any help with reasoning this through?
If villain is loose passive, he isn't going to lead turn with a FD, unless it's exactly A
T
...Even so, most LP players play their FDs passively...so we can safely assume FD won't make up >50% of his range.
Because hero checked flop, V1 has a ton of value hands he will lead turn with, i.e. KJ, AT, QJ, TJ, 9T, J9, 88, 78..etc
What is throwing you off is the fact that villain checked river dark and hasn't looked at the card. Obv, if he looked at the river and checked, then your play becomes much easier.
Regardless, your play on the river is to bet an amount that can extract value from the 2pairs, 1pair, weaker straights that he has a ton of. The third
is a bad card, not because you are beat, but because it makes it harder to extract value from 2pair hands
Shoving isn't going to accomplish this goal. So you have to size it accordingly. I bet 50-55