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Originally Posted by Czech Rays
Now flop bet isnt terrible, but think about it, this flop completely whiffs your range, and as such lots of hands that we want to fold, pps, often wont. Of course any 9, 77 and T8 are calling. The good news is AQprobably folds.
Agree on the point that a cbet and give up on turn is terrible when he calls flop so often but here we pick up equity on a lot of turn cards so I'll be barreling a lot. Consider that when something like a T or 8 rolls off it turns into an easy 3barrel since his turn calling range widens so much with pair+SD's that call and fold river.
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The J makes your hand better, but why bet it? Very few club draws call the flop. Small mid pairs will often fold now. T8 just binked. The continuing range is skewed towards hands that beat us. Best move on the turn is to check/call. We have an ok one pair hand, so lets keep worse pairs and bluffs in by checking to rep whiffed AQ or AK. Once we bet we are firmly up against a value range, leaving a PSB OTR and the part of his value range we beat is usually folding the river.
Don't think he flats T8 vs EP open. Basically I think I'm good almost all the time on the turn unless he's slow playing. C/c turn to c/f river is pretty bad against anyone who can handread so we're calling anyway. There just aren't that many draws he can have, bluffs are floats and stuff like JT (which I can now get value from). I don't see any value in keeping something like 55/66 or another pair in the pot - no more money is going in unless they bink.
When OOP, I think b/f to get value from a small portion of his range is a much better option than playing guessing games by c/c vs. relative unknowns who are unlikely to bluff all too often. Easy check IP.
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River is a terrible card. It smacks your range, and what missed draws can he have that will bluff it? If he puts another penny in the pot you are toast, Check fold the river.
Agreed again, don't think our hand is different from AT here but at the same time, I think it's almost always the best hand. One factor in shoving is that it could look bluffy. My range seems polarized firing three here which could induce some hero calls since not many hands make sense for me to shove here. He could also be flatting TT-KK since it's an EP open and the A doesn't change as much as it seems.
I guess in the end, the hand comes down to how you feel about making calldowns.