effective stacks $360

EP - Lady about 55. tight player who bets strong hands and folds weak ones. Kinda easy to read. I have not seen her tricky.
HJ - 65ish white male who seems like a rec player he has been in two orbits. calls preflop a lot and won a good size pot when his overpair held up and he bet the whole way.
Hero - Rec player who gets confuzzled in big pots.


Preflop
EP calls, everyone folds to HJ who raises to $15. CO folds, Hero on button has QcTc and calls. Blinds fold and original caller calls.


Flop 8c 9c Kd ~$50

EP checks with about 125 behind, HJ bets $50 into the $50ish pot. Hero???

raise to $150, call any raise down. pretty standard

You realize we're the favorite here right? We have a 13 out draw. We have more than 50% equity here which evaporates in half when we miss the turn, and we'll get calls from villains who put us on worse draws than the monster we really have. We'll get folds, too, but we're very happy for them surrendering their large amount of equity. I'm okay with raising anywhere from 150 (3x) to 200 (pot). Not sure what the advantages of different raise sizes are, but we're definitely raising and calling shoves here.

Fold pre, HJ is showing interest pre-flop when he normally just limps pre-flop and his range is pretty tight. As played I like a shove, it puts maximum pressure if he has QQ or KQ and against AK your basically flipping. If he has KK it sucks, but you still have flush outs if that is the case.

You're counting the Jc twice.

And you can't just say we're 50%. Against what range? Against sets and TPTK we're under 40%. That doesn't even include the better fd's V can have. I don't think V's range is this narrow but you need to construct one not just guess.

Heh, the 13 was a typo but I didn't realize we were that bad against that part of his range. Only 11 outs (Kc obv doesn't help) and he hits his FH 1/4th of the time we hit. My calculation came out to about 30% equity vs. sets (ouch).

I think the key to this hand is understanding the donk bet. If he plays trappy with monsters, it's probably TPTK. If he protects sets because he's scared, the pot sized donk bet is weighed more heavily towards those.

Looks like we have only 10 outs against the NFD (and again, the ace redraw against our pairs).

This spot is more interesting/close than I thought. Worth analyzing ev of various lines against various parts of his range, but I'm on my phone so it's pretty daunting. It's obviously much worse than I thought though, and the donk bet is screaming strength (to me at least), so thanks for the correction.

And there are the times we run into Ac Kc and we're drawing pretty slim.

As played, I'd raise but I don't mind the variance. I'm willing to get this in.

I'm likely raising here.

Obviously I'm fine getting it in on the flop, but I'd actually rather have V come along to the turn, and then jam the turn and have V make a bigger mistake if we think she might fold.
If we don't think that she will fold, then we can even buy the river for a super cheap price.

If we raise here to $125 we give our self both options on the turn. We've still got $225 behind on the turn to shove into $310, or we can check behind if we don't like whatever it brings.

Also, if we care at all about lol balance then later we can make thing raises with more nutted type hands and expect to get looked up lighter.

I disagree with the fold pre call. This is a really good hand to stack somebody who might have something, and to see a flop for 15 bucks, why not

You do have to be willing to lay it down pf even if you hit a piece though if it becomes clear that youre beat

Pre is on the fence imo. Heads up for 100bb I'm not huge on suited one gappers. If the blinds are super loose or if there are more limpers its an easy call. In this case the only limper is a shorty and we have no reads on the blinds. That's probably right on the threshold of calling. I also like the call more if the raise comes from ep where the ranges are stronger so the potential payoff of hitting is bigger.

Fist pump get it in...

You say villain won a good size pot when his overpair held up and he bet the whole way; did he raise preflop and how big was the overpair?

Knowing this affects what advise to give.

Pretty easy preflop fold, imo. The pot is not shaping up to be multiway (might even end up HU if tight lady limper folds), we have poor relative position to the raiser for chasing draws (first to act after him), and our hand is often dominated (an old rec white guy is never getting out-of-line here, right?). If the raise came from earlier with some calls then we could just see a nice multiway flop in position with a nice multiway hand, but this doesn't look to be the scenario developing, so I dump it.

Nice flop for us. We have decent hand equity with the flush draw + gutshot. However, I'm wondering how much FE we have. Is old rec white guy really potting the flop with anything that loses to a K? The K does bring into range a lot of hands he could raise preflop. Plus we have some blockers to some hands he could have which eliminates some combos he could be freaking out with (QQ/TT). I'm not convinced we have much FE here, so I'd be cool with simply calling and hoping lady pads the pot behind me. Raising does perhaps buy us a free card on the turn, but it also perhaps gets all the chips in on the flop where we will only be 50/50 with not too much dead money in the pot relative to stacks behind. With our nice draw we will probably be able to call a turn bet, so my plan would be to call, hit and then stack the opponent.

If the flop was more likely to have missed the raiser, and he gave a hint of indication that he had a fold button (I don't get this sense), plus there was more dead money in the middle relative to stacks, I'd be more cool with raising the flop.

GcluelessNLnoobG

Flopping big combo draws with SCs is why we play hands like QTs.

Why pay to play pre if we are not going to follow through on the Flops we actually connect with?

We are at very least calling Flop, prefer raising/jamming as Flush card on Turn may kill our action.

Pretty much this

Also QTs isn't that great a hand pre relative to the raising range of most V, big RIO potential for hands were you aren't making clean straights and flushes

Sure, we can say "this is the type of flop we wanted." On these flops, we can be ahead, and we can fold out better hands with a semi-bluff. Hell yeah.

But then we get a pot-sized c-bet. I no longer think we are ahead, and I no longer think we have fold equity on our semi-bluff. This bet size on this board looks like a set/TP that's playing correctly and straightforwardly -- Mr. Set/TP is worried about a super drawy board checking through.

If we shove here, it's -EV vs. a lot of his range. We don't even have the correct equity vs. top pair. I think this is a call, not a raise.

My thinking is that the pot-sized bet weighs his range heavily towards hands that are beating us though -- perhaps my thinking is MUBSy? If this is his normal c-bet, then we can safely shove here. But if this is unusually large (and for most villains, it is), then I think we can and should play it slower.

Here's our range if he has made hands, and it includes c-bets with JJ-QQ. It's pretty likely methinks:

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

59,400 trials (Exhaustive)

board: 8 9 K

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
QsTs	17.67%	10,390	212
AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, 99, 88, AK, KQ, KJ	82.33%	48,798	212

Yuck!

My above thinking assumes the pot-sized bet weights his range more heavily toward made hands. Now let's assume that he can do this with draws. Let's see how we are doing against his range when we add gutshots (and is he seriously doing this with gutshots?):

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

92,070 trials (Exhaustive)

board: 8 9 K

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
QsTs	25.14%	22,289	1,724
AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, 99, 88, AK, KQ, KJ, QJ, TJ, T9	74.86%	68,057	1,724

Lol what? We are still way way behind. What's happening here? I think the problem is, when he has gutshots and gutshot + pairs, he's blocking our outs.

But the above range isn't complete -- I mean, if he does this with gutshots, he has to do this with NFDs as well right? Let's add those in and see how terrible it gets:

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

99,000 trials (Exhaustive)

board: 8 9 K

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
QsTs	24.81%	23,699	1,733
AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, 99, 88, AK, KQ, KJ, QJ, TJ, T9, AcQc, AcJc, AcTc, Ac5c, Ac4c, Ac3c, Ac2c	75.19%	73,568	1,733

Okay, so it fell, but actually not that much (I gave him all the Ac/Kc-Tc and A5cc-)

Honestly, unless he c-bets the pot with air to take it down, this might be a fold.

I have a feeling something has to be way off though. I mean wtf, we have a gutter straight flush draw. We can't be doing this bad right? I hope someone finds a mistake in my ranging. Because I really want to call/raise here, obv.

This hand is a reason I rarely chase fd's that aren't the nfd. IfI'm HU and it's obvious V has a pp then I know my flush outs are good and will chase a 5-high fd if given the right price.

Aside from that, I chase flushes with the K in my hand because often enough the A will hit and my cards will become the nfd from the 2nd-nfd. But most of the time I'm holding the Ace.

These are the key prison rape hands. Guys will call anything on a non-paired board with the 2nd nf and not even think about it. And it's not a cooler, because if the situation were reversed, I wouldn't even be chasing the draw, let alone getting ai with it.

Check your suits

LMFAO.

****. Me.

Well, I don't have time to fix it now but I'll look into this more later. Wish a mod would delete that *blush*.

So the preflop decision is questionable, and I screw the flop by just calling........ read on about the turn.


effective stacks $360

EP - Lady about 55. tight player who bets strong hands and folds weak ones. Kinda easy to read. I have not seen her tricky.
HJ - 65ish white male who seems like a rec player he has been in two orbits. calls preflop a lot and won a good size pot when his overpair held up and he bet the whole way.
Hero - Rec player who gets confuzzled in big pots.


Preflop
EP calls, everyone folds to HJ who raises to $15. CO folds, Hero on button has QcTc and calls. Blinds fold and original caller calls.


Flop 8 9 K ~$50

EP checks with about 125 behind, HJ bets $50 into the $50ish pot. Hero CALLS .... EP folds

Turn 9 (pot $150)

Villain checks, hero?????

I would take a stab here, probably like 75-90. I think a lot of rec players would bet big on the flop with hands like TT JJ QQ to see "if anyone has a king" and then might shut down once someone calls.

I would say that any Kx or AA would still be betting here, as they dont want to give a free card on this board, especially if youve seen this guy keep betting with overpairs/top pair hands.

The only other reason I can think he would check is if he has a monster and wants to slowplay. If he calls the turn, I'd probably give up on the river unimproved

really bad card for us. take the free one off.

wow. Why isn't this a bunch of fold pre's? we like burning money by calling raises even in position with QTs?

sigh you loose cannons you. :-)

as played we have to take a free card here. On the flop, There are a lot of hands that doing well against us, and the raise smells like an AK that got there, ad wants to push us off of a FD.

I would jsut let this go on the flop as well. better spots IMO

Vs. QQ+,99,88 and AK we are 58.55-41.45 dogs on the flop.The pot sized lead multiway screams NO FOLD EQUITY.I'd flat the flop and re-evaluate, on the 9 turn I'd take the free card, do you think the bottom of his range, AK, folds to a turn bet after potting the flop into two players?