2/3 Nut flush on paired board river decision
Join Date: Aug 2017
Posts: 19
Blind raise from UTG to $7, 4 callers, hero closes action on BB with A8cc.
($38) TT6cc, checks through.
($38) 5c, hero $20, 2 calls.
($98) offsuit 9, hero $105, next to act jams $290 eff, fold, hero?
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 12,781
Ouch. Any reads? Why did you over-bet the river? What did you think would call? That's one of the worst rivers for you -- T9 is so in their ranges.
W/o reads, this is an easy fold, but I never would have bet the river so big. If I bet into two players on a paired board, I would have b/f ~$50.
Join Date: Apr 2012
Posts: 6,238
He shoved on the river after you made a strong bet and with possible action behind. Against an unknown a tight fold is the best option. Lots of T9/66/55 in villain's range.
If you have some read on the villain and know villain can over play a random non-boat TX or a low flush then you might have to call but unless villain is terrible it's marginal.
Join Date: Feb 2018
Posts: 313
Pot is $493 and it costs you $185 to call, for a little better than 2.5 to 1 pot odds. You need to be good a little less than 30% of the time.
Against an unknown player, this might be a tall order. He is shoving with action pending against an overbet. That's really strong. He has to think one of his Vs has a flush, likely you. Really hard to shove here with just Tx.
Most likely Vs range is K high flush, 55, 66, T9, and maybe even 99. I would fold and hate it.
You should bet more on the turn and less on the river. $60 is perfectly fine. Then when V shoves, you're getting worse odds and it's easier to walk away.
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 143
Quote:
Originally Posted by fightingillini
Pot is $493 and it costs you $185 to call, for a little better than 2.5 to 1 pot odds. You need to be good a little less than 30% of the time.
Against an unknown player, this might be a tall order. He is shoving with action pending against an overbet. That's really strong. He has to think one of his Vs has a flush, likely you. Really hard to shove here with just Tx.
Most likely Vs range is K high flush, 55, 66, T9, and maybe even 99. I would fold and hate it.
You should bet more on the turn and less on the river. $60 is perfectly fine. Then when V shoves, you're getting worse odds and it's easier to walk away.
I like this answer.
