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2/3 NL - weird spot with AKo (butchered the hand?) 2/3 NL - weird spot with AKo (butchered the hand?)

05-21-2010 , 09:37 AM
I have about $200 in my stack, villian has around the same. He has not been prone to bluffing - and has not played many hands.

I raise it up to $15 in middle position with AcKh, I get about 4 callers.

Flop comes Ad Qc Jc. I lead for $35, villian calls, everyone else folds.

Turn comes down 2c. I'm completely lost as to what to do here, and end up checking. Villian thinks and bets $50 with about $100 behind.

At this point I'm thinking it's a shove/fold spot...and after I think for about a minute, I fold. What my reasoning was that if I shoved, the best I could hope for is a chop with another AK, and am most likely crushed by twopair/sets/flushes and only have my club outs.

Should I have done anything differently?
2/3 NL - weird spot with AKo (butchered the hand?) Quote
05-21-2010 , 11:47 AM
I don't like the bet sizing of $35 on the flop. Bet the pot or check.
I am not sure it is check fold. You can call the $50 and see what he does.
You could win with a T, club gives you the nuts, A will help, K will help.

Call and reevaluate.

Your $35 bet created a $145 pot and he bets $50; that is a defensive bet for a cheap river/ showdown. You let him take the initiative.

It is okay to check this flop.
2/3 NL - weird spot with AKo (butchered the hand?) Quote
05-21-2010 , 12:11 PM
If I've done my math right, there's $180 in the pot and we're being asked to call $50. So we're getting ~3.5:1 with the nut flush draw, a gutshot, plus top pair / top kicker to boot. Folding is out of the question, isn't it?
2/3 NL - weird spot with AKo (butchered the hand?) Quote
05-21-2010 , 12:15 PM
How can you fold with TPTK, a gutshot and the nutflush draw?
If you bet $60 on the flop(pot is $75+) this hand becomes much easier to play.
2/3 NL - weird spot with AKo (butchered the hand?) Quote
05-21-2010 , 12:16 PM
I don't see how you can fold here. But I also instinctively do not like shoving here either.

Let's work backwards though to see why...

After the turn

The 2c is an interesting card in that it is either a complete blank or it took you from being way ahead to being way behind (i.e., villain hit the flush). At this point, there is $145 in the pot, and villain has $150 left. Villain puts 1/3 of remaining stack into the middle, so it's $50 to you to win $195 (not quite 4 to 1).

Now, with the A you have the draw to the nuts PLUS you already have what might be the best hand if villain doesn't have two pair or the baby flush already. We cannot immediately presume that villain has 2 pair+ here. That's playing "monsters in the closet" and it's a losing mindset unless you have a pretty good read on the guy from past play (I have no idea since there is no history in the lead-in).

By the turn, I just don't see how you can fold... nor can villain fold. If villain already has a flush, you have 7 outs, giving you a 15% shot to win - which isn't good - but that's only if he has exactly a flush already (and remember, you're getting 4-to-1 on a call here, too, so you're almost priced in). He may also be betting with a naked K here. He has a wide range of plausible hands given the line he took. That said, I'd probably call here and re-evaluate the river.

On the flop

You have TPTK with a inside straight/broadway draw and backdoor nut flush draw. You were also the pre-flop raiser and the pot is $75 with you facing 4 villains from MP. You have to bet at least $50 here. I'd probably bet closer to the full pot in fact. By only betting $35, you allow anyone with a mediocre draw to stick around cheaply for implied odds and you aren't maximizing what you can win if a scare card hits the turn (which it does).

Pre-flop

Without much background, I have no idea if $15 is a standard raise here, but it seems fine. Getting 4 callers is a bit infuriating though. Do you have a LAG image or something?

---

In the end I call the $50 to peel the river and re-evaluate. I just don't see how you can check-fold here with a made hand and a good chance to improve.
2/3 NL - weird spot with AKo (butchered the hand?) Quote
05-21-2010 , 12:21 PM
Nut flush draw means a lot here. No matter what V has, we have 9 clean outs to the nuts. Add in the chance that we're ahead as is--9T, KK, KcJ/Q, random make up _some part_ of his range, and the 4:1 from his bet, and I think this is a really bad fold.

If you typo'd and don't have the nut flush draw, I can see it, I guess.
2/3 NL - weird spot with AKo (butchered the hand?) Quote
05-21-2010 , 12:43 PM
What do you guys mean by call and reevaluate the river? Aren't we pretty much committing ourselves with a pair and a draw if we call here? The pot will be like $230, with $100 behind..

Say a blank comes, and he ships. Are we really calling here? Is he actually gonna shove anything worse than TPTK here?

If a T or a club comes, how do we get value from it? It is kinda obvious from the call on the turn that we are drawing; we would shove with a set and maybe our two pair hands on the turn on this board. If we check, it will likely be checked behind if he has a set/2pair (four flush/four straight board if we hit). If we shove he MIGHT make a crying call..but even if he had a set of queens thats kinda tough to call. Are we really calling the turn hoping that he might have like the Kc?
2/3 NL - weird spot with AKo (butchered the hand?) Quote
05-21-2010 , 12:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Makonnen
Nut flush draw means a lot here. No matter what V has, we have 9 clean outs to the nuts.
If villain has a flush or any club, it's certainly not 9 outs... more likely 8 at best. And given the line here by villain, I'd say 7 "clean" outs is what we are looking at.
2/3 NL - weird spot with AKo (butchered the hand?) Quote
05-21-2010 , 12:56 PM
Quote:
What do you guys mean by call and reevaluate the river? Aren't we pretty much committing ourselves with a pair and a draw if we call here? The pot will be like $230, with $100 behind.
This is why the hand is tricky by not betting more on the flop. We have 4-1 on our money on the turn to *draw* at a flush or straight or better two pair. But without the river bringing us the club, it is probably not be in our best interests to call the last $100 with just one pair - even if the pot is $345 after an expected $100 bet by villain. What could hero reasonably beat other than a bluff if villain doesn't check behind on the river if there isn't the miracle ?

/I could be wrong, but I'd be heavily inclined to save the last $100 regardless of the equity we have at the river. You'd have to win 1 in 3.5 times to justify the crying call of $100 over time and I do not think the villain arrives with anything worse than 2 pair on the river if he does indeed shove at the end. Certainly we are beat more than 75% of the time in this spot if we brick out.
2/3 NL - weird spot with AKo (butchered the hand?) Quote
05-21-2010 , 01:04 PM
More on flop, bet/call turn.
2/3 NL - weird spot with AKo (butchered the hand?) Quote
05-21-2010 , 01:07 PM
You've under-repped your hand with the small bet on flop and checking the turn. He could be betting any weak Ace, 2nd pair or gut shot plus pair/FD, after thinking you've given up. His range of hands is too wide to fold here. That coupled with the fact you are drawing to the nuts, best play is all-in raise.
2/3 NL - weird spot with AKo (butchered the hand?) Quote
05-21-2010 , 01:13 PM
More straigtforward line I think is to make a 3/4 pot to pot-sized bet on flop to protect and get some value from weaker Aces and draws. You are then left with a very easy decision on the turn, which is shove.
2/3 NL - weird spot with AKo (butchered the hand?) Quote
05-21-2010 , 01:48 PM
Don't like the turn check. I bet pretty big on all three streets and get it in at some point.

As played call the turn, and river action is somewhat dependent on villain. Many live players don't necessarily fire the river if they fire the turn, and will check behind the river the entire range of hands which you beat. (although now you've lost the betting initiative, you lose value on the river by letting it go chk/chk).
2/3 NL - weird spot with AKo (butchered the hand?) Quote
05-21-2010 , 05:44 PM
does anyone really invision described villian betting the river with less than AK?? I dont really. doesnt mean the turn is a fold but just a point. Much rather bet the turn prob. call with all our outs if he shoves on the turn. Though I would expect to be behind often it villian shoves over a turn bet.
2/3 NL - weird spot with AKo (butchered the hand?) Quote

      
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