Game is 9 handed, seems like a standard 2/3, although I haven't played in about 7 years. Standard pf raise was 15.
Hero hasn't been getting cards and has a TAG image, villain is pretty LAG, calls with anything and loves chasing draws.
Hero (100bb) is MP+1 with 10
10
and raises to 15, Villain (250bb) in the CO calls, just two to the flop.
Flop (35) 9
7
5
Hero bets 20, V calls.
Turn (75) 8
Hero bets 35, V raises to 105. I bet thinking it was just a one liner and wanted to see how strong he was and get value/deny equity on a spade draw. Now that I'm getting re-raised on, it seemed pretty clear he has a 6 and I'm thinking it's just a math problem at this point - 70 more to hit my 7 outer to make a better straight on the river (4x jacks and 3x 6s assuming he turned the straight and not giving him any credit for pocket 6s since he calls with anything) and double up on his worse straight. Not getting the right price to hit a 7 outer (70 to win 285, need 24.6% to call and assuming 7 live outs I only have a 7/44=15.9% chance to hit). But I'm assuming that I'm doubling up 100% of the time if I river a better straight and saw it more as 70 to win 285 plus the 160 I had behind so I only needed 15.7% equity, which looking back is super close even with my very optimistic assumptions at the time. It didn't even occur to me that a 6 would have meant that he's just playing the board and he could lay down his straight if a J comes on the river, so I definitely didn't have the right odds to call. I also thought there could also be a small chance of two spades with an ace or an 8 playing this way and I could possibly show down and win if the river bricks and it goes check/check.
River (285) 8
Even if the turn was a bluff, I can't show down against a 8, flush draw got there, seemed pretty clear he had a straight already, I just check and give up, V bets, I fold and V shows 6
Thoughts on how I could have played this better? I'm thinking the turn should have just been a check/call or check/fold, but probably closer to check/fold given how hard my hand would have been to play on the river esp if I got shoved on, etc.
Last edited by jh0720; 11-13-2021 at 07:29 PM.
Reason: formatting