My bro played this hand. He is ywm and has no image. Hero opens 15 utg with black jacks, co sb bb calls

Flop (60) : Jh9d4s
2 checks hero 40 co calls

Turn (140) : 5s
Hero 100 co calls

River (340) : Ts
Hero.. there’s 300 behind

Doesn't have many flush draws, I think KQss/87ss/A9ss should be most of them. I guess 99/44 raises flop or turn. We block AJ/KJ/QJ/JT but potentially these are in, more suited versions the weaker the hand gets. J9ss is in. I don't think he has a flush often but its hard to see what worse pays us off except JTs/JT9. Most people in my pool simply wouldn't raise the river to a bet/bet/bet/bet line without a flush so I guess bet/fold is possible but sizing is difficult. Shoving seems to lose the most while folding out just about anything that's not a flush. Checking is asking to be bluffed.

This looks like a spot where reads become really important. If I think I'm never getting bluff raised, I probably bet/fold $125. If I think that they are likely to attack weakness, I check/call. If I think they are a fishy non-believer, I shove.

Obviously reads matter a lot. Stuff it in, in the absence of any reads.

My brother had just sat down and never played with this MAAG.

What does MAAG stand for?

Probably a dumb question.

Middle Aged Asian Guy

in my game people who arent OMC types attack weakness in big pots. so with no reads c/c any bet, including AI. i think you get more value from someone turning QT into a bluff then betting 1/3 pot.

Great spot for a xc in general to let villains bluff.

But if we want to target weak-medium value hands from an opponent who cis inclined to check-back, smaller bet on river is good - like 100.

I’m shoving river

I'd limp in but that's me.

I'd probably bet more on flop and turn. Our bet sizes were for .67 and .71, which then left us with a rather large .88 for the river. When attempting to play for stacks (our goal on this flop), I think those numbers should be reversed, as players will be willing to pay higher percentages on early streets for less $ with more possibilities going for them at this point, and then find themselves committed by the river for a smaller percentage at larger $$$.

Ug, gross river. I guess there isn't an overabundance of stuff like KQss/87ss (floating flop with gutshot, picked up flush draw on turn), but kinda seems most likely type of hand given action. With only a PSB left, do we really have enough for a small bet/fold? Checking also seems meh as it pretty much guarantees the only time money goes into the pot on the river is when we're behind. ETA: I guess reads are the key on the river, but I'm not sold on checking to induce unless this guy has shown he is a big bluffer, especially since there isn't a heckuva lot of busted draws and everything else he has is showdownable.

GnotsureG

Is Jx calling a jam otr? I'd be targeting his Jx hands, 2p+ woulda probably raised by now, so rather than jamming and folding out all his jacks, I would rather b/c round hp, there's plenty we beat if he jams. Not all players even see the BDF anyway.

Bet/call $100 or check/call. I can go either way. I don't see the point of jamming. The rest of the hand is fine.

All we lose to is river gutshots and back door flushes? Bet $120 and call raise. If he's got like A9s.....oh, well.

I mean, I can't hate too much on bet/calling with only a PSB left... but we think this guy is raising something that we beat on the river? Most players are MUBSY as hell and clearly see that there is a possible straight and flush on board; we're very rarely facing a raise by worse, imo. But I guess we don't have to be good all that often...

GcluelessNLnoobG

Agreed that calling a river raise is basically a bluff catch

I would pretty much discount the BDF but if it was a front door one it would def change things so we're only scared of a gutter, of which he would have called 100 into 140 otf so yea KQ is in his range for sure, as are every other set, two pair and Jx hands too so if he had the straight I'm still fine getting it in otr as played.

I'm stuffing it in. It's 2/3. Every time we don't value bet, a puppy dies.

2p, sets all likely call, and heck we've all seen people call this off with one pair hands at these stakes.

Absent a read, bet/calling is the worst option. 1) People just don't bluff raise rivers on scary boards often enough and 2) What hand can he have here that he's turning into a bluff raise. Most of the pairs on the flop are now 2 pair. Can a villain at this level really bluff raise QJ? doubtful your hand just looks too strong

Since we're never check folding the choices are b/f, c/c, or jam. b/f seems bad b/c the raise would be so small relative to the size of the pot and we don't like calling raises b/c see above. The 2 best options seem to be c/c and jam. If we range him to flushes, an occasional strait, 2 pair and sets I think jamming has the most value. If we check he bets flushes 100% and like straits 100% too while checking behind some his 2pair/sets that we beat. I don't think he's got enough bluffs in his range to turn into a bluff here b/c the bdfd came in. Our hand looks like an overpair, I'm ripping it in and hoping to get called by T9, JT or a set. If he's got a flush/strait we were gonna get stacked either way

I don’t see how he can have a straight without a flush.

Hero shoved and got tank nit rolled by K9ss