2-3, 300-Match, plays like a 3-5.

V in mp seems ok. He’s a bit too loose pre and has different sizings pre. We’ve seen him open to 8 and open to 20. The 20s haven’t made it to showdown, the 8 was QTo. Has 1200 we cover.

Hero on btn with 87dd

Pre: V in mp opens 10, hero raises to 40, just V calls

Flop (85) : T93r bdfd
Check, hero 50, call

Turn (185) : Qcc
Check check

River (185) : Ax
Check

I think we need to bluff here. It sucks that despite unblocking his missed flush draws a lot of them spiked top pair OTR. We have nut low, can rep Ax, and he has a bunch of one pair hands that could have called this flop but then wanted a cheap showdown. Since our bluff targets are relatively weak and we want to make it look thin-valuish, I wouldn’t go too big. 110-120.

Mandatory river bluff. I don't know what river sizes you use here, but anything from like 60% pot to pot seems reasonable. The go to size I would use here would be 85% pot, but that is just me.

Not specific to this hand/board, IP on the river I see GTO Wizard go about 60%, 85% pot, or overbet a lot, so I usually try to pick one of those sizings, and 85% seems like the one that will generate fold equity here and it is a reasonable size with a value hand also. It's also not super hard to calculate because 75% pot is easy to figure and 10% on top of that is easy to figure. So 150-160.

Preflop 4x 3bet in position seems excessive. My go to would be 35. Ideally V is going to fold to 3bet a lot though. He should be folding AQo, KQo, QJs, QTs, A7s etc though at full to high frequency though. If he is calling much wider than he should be, I would 3bet more linearly.

I think a bet on the river is good ($100), but I probably would have bet the turn, too.

Rep the slowplayed broadway. All in

I probably flat pre, but 3b seem fine, particularly since he's been shown to raise wide with smaller amounts. Out of interest, if we don't flat 87s do we have any flatting range at all? Perhaps mid PPs?

This feels like a classic place to bluff as he has shown weakness and the Ace should be a scare card and we assume they put you on AK (that said, I swear to God every time I do this, I run into 2P with one of them being the Ace).

The counter is that this is low stakes full of calling stations who may hum and huh and eventually call you off with JT or some other nonsense. Do we know villain has a fold button?

pre
We're deep enough and his smaller opens are probably weaker. I like it.

Flop
Boards probably a bit better for his range than ours. I like the bigger sizing when we do bet though.

Turn
Fine

River
Have to bluff. We have a ton of aces. Probably half pot. No reason to go huge. We want value from single pair when we do have it.

Result: I bet 100 get snapped by Kings. He tricked me pre.

V sounds like he's unbluffable. Nothing much you could have done here. Use the info to take him to value town next time.

I do think the bet check bet line gets called a lot, particularly by intermediate players, which is why I love to use it for value. To avoid this problem, I probably barrel turn here.

lol

Nice hand though.

But that's also a high percentage of low stakes players, which is why even though this should in theory be a really clear bluffing opportunity, bluffing randos at low stakes where you haven't seen them make big folds, is always high risk.

My big bluffs at low stakes are nearly always player dependent. Perhaps y'all can make bank making big bluffs against unknowns at low stakes, but I'm not good enough to do it profitably.

What are we doing 3bet/bet/check/bet for value with on T93QA?

checking KJs on turn seems very dubious.
3 combos of AA? Checks turn maybe?
3 combos of QQ?
3 combos of TT maybe?
2 combos of AT?
some combos of AKo? (that's much less if we know V has KK


I know we have 87s and it's probably the nut low, but it doesn't feel like we even have all of the above so...

Also if we bet I'd be tempted to bet like 400, which kind of makes up for not betting turn. But I think I'd much rather just fire money into the abyss on the turn.

Let me revise my earlier comment.

Hero could have barreled turn, and given up / checked back on the river. I'd have liked that line better. Semi-bluffing flop and turn with an OESD is probably going to fold more hands than going bet-check-bet with our busted draws.

Would it have made a difference here, with this V, holding KK? Probably not. Because V sounds unbluffable. He flat-called a 4x 3B pre with KK, rather than 4B'ing. Sounds like a guy who likes to bluff-catch.

But if we're going to go bet-check-bet as a bluff, the ace is probably the best card we could hope for, as a lot of our AX could take that line, and a lot of V's bluff-catchers suddenly get downgraded.

Hero bet $100 into $185. It's just over half pot. Not really a "big" bluff. Over-betting pot would have been a big bluff. In fact, the bluff being so small may be why it didn't get through.

Folding KK here really isn't a "big" fold. He's losing to any ace, 2P, sets, and straights. It's only a big fold if V plays all his big PP's as bluff-catchers, because KK would be the top of his bluff-catching range on this board.

I would value bet any ace like AK or AJ, and we make some 2p on river too. I think I rep AK quite well.

I do wish I blasted off but he’s still uncapped. The nuts can go for a check raise on this river.

Did you accidentally like your own post again? Becoming a habit