Quote:
Originally Posted by YanasaurBBQ
@docvail wins the thread!
Here's what happened on river:
Villain checked to me.
I sat there motionless for probably a minute and a half going through everything in my head. I said I need to blast this off, but started leveling myself into thinking he bumped into a set on the turn or river or he had aces. I know if I check back though and he shows TT I will vomit in my mouth.
I do wuss out and check back.
Villain flips over AQdd and i exclaim "holy crap", and we win a huge pot w a pair of 4s. I knew I should've jammed river.
Villain threw his head back in disgust and indeed looked like he wanted to jump into traffic. He was a good sport and told me good play before i left for the night.
Glad you won the hand. Nice to hear my reasoning for checking back seems to have been correct.
Not sure why you think you should have jammed here. He can't ever call with worse, obviously, and there's a good chance he levels himself into making a light call with a lot of hands.
He's obviously not folding KK, JJ, 77, or 65s, assuming he just flats your flop raise and turn barrel with all of those. If V calls flop and turn with AA, AJdd, AKdd, or KJdd, he's probably not folding, because all your semi-bluffs missed, and aside from AA, all those hands have improved.
He's probably only folding hands like AXdd, and maybe 88-TT and QQ. But he might get curious enough to look you up with 88-TT and QQ, because what KX or JX do you have here, that flat call pre, raise flop, barrel turn, and jam river? He might even look you up with A4dd, if he thinks you're just completely FOS.
Your line is really only repping 65s when you flat call pre, raise flop, barrel turn, and jam river. Maybe you could play KJdd this way, but that's just one combo, and what would you be targeting for value that might call, other than AA? I would think KJ might check back at some frequency, to avoid value-owning ourselves against 77 and 65s.
I think the rationale for jamming would be to avoid checking back with no showdown value and losing to his ace-high combos. I agree that you already folded out so much of his range on the flop and turn that all he has left are better hands that will call and worse hands that will fold.