You said v3 has decent pf raise sizing. This is clearly wrong given his 3b size in this hand.

Doing anything but flatting here seems pretty suboptimal. You have position, a hand thats almost certainly behind vs all villains getting it in range, a good spr if you call. Unless you have a serious reason to believe that the 3b has a good chance of being light, i see no reason to cold 4b here.
You are almost certainly going to push out the dominated ranges against you so you can at best flip over a medium amount of dead money. You dont have to get ak all in every hand, its perfectly fine to flat.

Calling is almost certainly profitable, raising has questionable ev. This is live poker man, 3b ranges are incredibly strong for almost all players, if you havent seen them show down a looseish 3b, i see no reason to turn down a spot that is clearly profitable because you advertised earlier

My memory of V3's actions to this point was that he raised 4-6 times preflop out of 5 orbits, and that nearly each time he took it down on the flop or turn, he fired a rather large (3/4 PSB+) c-bet. His preflop sizing seemed fine for just opening or raising limpers (usually $15+ in a 2/3 game is pretty large, which is what he was doing in middle or late position).

I'll update the hand soon. I think I'm pretty convinced by the 4bet/GII argument but would like to think about it a little longer.

I was considering 4b/call ai. There's almost $60 in dead money, so even if we're against QQ it's about a breakeven spot.

But thinking about the pf raising/calling ranges it seems like we don't have many outs in the deck. Which makes me think fold and never tell anyone, unless you're married, I've been told you can't keep secrets in that regard.

There's nothing wrong with folding in this spot.

There's two scenarios that are very negative EV:

1. Someone has KK+
2. Someone has AK and the 3rd person has any pocket pair

There are very few scenarios that are very plus EV.

The two scenarios are bad but they are less likely given villans actions and betsizing. You are describing worst case scenarios. What about the fact that AK and JJ type hands may not even call? We are giving up the chance to pick up 33% of our stack with out even seeing a showdown. That is a very +EV situation and I think it works often enough. I'll play around with some ranges but I just dont like trying to soul read UTG and min 3 bettor for just KK+. Any know how to break down the math of how often the shove has to work for it to be profitable?

We have basically 1 villan I am really concerned about and that is villan1. V2s range is capped and V4s range is called. V3 just min raised a preflop which is just very odd because the sizing is bad. It doesn't seem like he is super strong so much as he is isolating. And I don't like the idea of assuming our outs are dead just because of the action, by that logic it should make it less likely someone had AA or KK.

There 13+13+30+30= 86 worth of dead money. Our equity vs the fields range is substantial and we do have food equity because a cold 4 bet shove looks strong.

[QUOTE=Mr_Doomed;463359 Any know how to break down the math of how often the shove has to work for it to be profitable?[/QUOTE]

It depends on how far behind you are when you get called, and how often those hands are out there. My contention is that the kk+ hands are out there too often given the action in the hand and the description of the players, to make a lot of money, if any here.

We are also forgetting the fact that we are almost always shutting the massive donk out of this pot, the amount of good 100 bb spots against him is pretty good postflop, especially with this type of hand.

Someone please correct me if I'm wrong:

To do the calc if you had 0 equity when called: 310 to win 86

1- (86/(310+86)) = 78.3%

If you assume V3 calls x% of the time, everyone else folds 100% and we are 20% when called:

.2*(56+2*310) + .8 (-310) = -112.8

1- (112.8/(112.8+86)) = 43.2%

FWIW, I just pulled 20% out of my ass. Do with that what you will.

mmmmmm....food equity.....

Lol awesome that would be my phones auto correct.

The point is that if AK folds that's your outs that are folding. You're very negative EV against any pocket pair if AK folds, and it's even worse if AK calls.

You think it's unlikely with 4 people in this pot that someone has a pair and people have an ace or a king in their hand?

I didn't say that it's unlikely, I simply stated that we can't go Assuming things. Also not every pocket pair will call a large 3 bet or a shove meaning we get them to fold their significant portion of equity. That's part of the reason I want to shove. If we get this heads up our equity vs villans calling range with dead money it is a reasonable spot. Villan 1 can only call with the top of his range with so many players behind same thing goes for V3 but his calling range is likely slightly wider since he has less players to worry about.

We can't just be looking at worst case scenarios. We have to look at the whole picture. Villans will fold Better hands and hands that have decent equity vs our hand. And I look at a shove as a semi bluff opposed to a bluff. IF we win the dead money in the middle a fair percentage of the time uncontested it's a fantastic result and I just happen to think it happens pretty often when we only have 2 villans to worry about.

Button or not, I'm not a huge fan of calling here. I'm not gonna claim it's wrong, but I'd want a significant skill advantage and solid reads to consider it. 5way with AKs in position in a 3bet pot with active players sounds like fun. But if we don't want to jam because V1 or V3 have too tight of a range, then we may not want to call for the same reason.

Generally, I'd look at this as a jam or fold spot. The important considerations at the table are 1) How much is the jam an overbet, 2) Villain ranges, and 3) what they'll fold.

1) How much is the jam an overbet? Here, a pot sized bet is 151, so it isn't too much of an overbet against V1, but a significant overbet against V3. So, we're gonna need V3 to be pretty wide for a +EV shove.

2) V1 and V3 are the important ranges obviously. Once in a blue moon V2 or V4 may show up with KK or AA but whatever. Before running any numbers, my guess is we need V1 to be TT+,AK AND V3 to be nearing 10% for a good shove.

3) If they'll fold big pairs, it'll help the shove EV. Wider ranges are relatively more important though. I haven't played 2-3. In my games, a large percentage of the 1-2 and 1-3 players will snap fold QQ and I'd guess 10%-20% will fold KK. In 2-5, maybe 50% of QQ will fold, and some of the KK will tank, but I don't know that I've ever seen one fold in this type of spot. Obviously, getting folds from KK is gigantic. (I'm 50ish with a quiet table demeanor, so I probably get more folds than some)

In the end, the main problem is that shoving against our desired ranges is gonna be a nice but never hugely +ev but shoving against a very tight range is massively spew. So, if we're not VERY confident about our ranges, especially V3, I'd fold.

To be honest, in the heat of the moment I'd want to shove so bad I'd be staring down V3, thinking if he'd ever 3bet, what the sizing meant (weird size = AA too darn often), and if I talked myself into a wide enough range, I'd jam and immediately go "oops, what about V1".

Also, 10% is probably too high, I'm gonna revise my guess to a V3 7% range is enough to jam against here.

I don't understand. Your very next sentence is an assumption: that your bluff is going to be successful and everyone will fold their equity.

When I make this call (or not) and I stove my equity afterward, folding is almost always the best alternative. If you play in a game where people are 3-betting and calling 3-bets light then your experience might be different.

I don't know why you're talking about there being two Villains or lots of dead money. It's not like everyone has folded so far.

I'm definitely not folding, either calling or 4 balling. I feel with a 4b the hand plays so much easier and we take the initiative. Starting to like that idea now...

Results:

I know this is going to be taken as results oriented, but...

In this hand we only have 2 Vs that took an aggressive line V1 and V3. If V2 or V4 had a premium hand they wanted to go to war with preflop we would of heard about it. Those two are always folding when we 4 bet or 4 bet shove. We need to be concerned about V1 openin UTG range and V3s min 3 betting range. That was my whole point.

As for the results it could of easily gone the other way but thanks for that GG.

With that huge amount of dead money why don't you post the EV of Hero shoving in this spot and getting it in against aces?

By the way you showed no concern for anyone (including Hero) when you said: I'm surprised we are even considering folding.

By the way in virtually every spot a competent player should consider every option.

I think one of the main lessons here is that without a seeing history of 3betting, we're very often right to assign a very strong, tight range in LLSNL. If we had seen V3 once 3bet and show/show down something like 99, it really changes the hand and my outlook on my options in this spot.

Especially if a large portion of the scenarios involved are marginal EV spots, I think folding is a viable option. I also see the merit in 4bet/stacking off here, and it's something I considered in-game.

More results oriented worst case scenario thinking we haven calculate a range that is willing to get it in vs AK. So once we factor in blockers our equity is like 35%.

There are plenty of spots were we don't consider all options of raise call or fold. I think folding is the worst option and I stand by my decision.

Lucky for OP he went with his in game read and he was right.

This is a very good default, imo.

Obviously game dynamics also has to be taken into consideration. I mean, if it was some loosey goosey guy who always opens in EP and a loosey goosey caller, both of which Villain has a gambooley history with, and the game is seeing lots of gambooley 3bets preflop, ok, fine, maybe start loosening up the ranges. But if not, it typically is what it is.

Gitiswhatitis,anditwasG

I agree. Even most loose-aggressive players at low stakes rarely 3bet light. Always assuming a super-tight 3bet range until proven otherwise is the safe play. I also agree that folding, calling, and shoving all have merit in this scenario. Unlucky V3 ended up having AA, but certainly not surprising. Good hand to analyze.

I'm curious what the advocates of calling would have done on the flop. Assuming preflop plays out the same with hero calling, the pot is $150 with 2 hearts on the flop. I assume V1 or V3 would have shoved before hero acted. Wouldn't hero have called the shove with the 15ish-outer nut flush draw and two overs? Since we're being results oriented, wouldn't hero have lost his stack if he called preflop too?

Flat...your ahead of some of their ranges...take a flop and re-evaluate.
Never folding pre with these dynamics..and if you 3! your probably just flipping if called.