I just got table changed into a game with a lot more chips on the table thankfully. After a couple orbits at the table, I've played two or three small pots for raises and taken them down with flop bets. V is a kid in a wheelchair, about 30, bitching about his sports bets to whoever will listen. He's loose and passive and seems pretty bad overall.

He limps the CO, I make it 15 on button, blinds fold, he calls.

Flop ($34): 7c6c4h (I hold AcAx). He checks, I bet $25, he shoves for $325 effective...?

I just have relatively no clue how to figure out a good range for him here. Can somebody walk me through a fishy's thinking? I suppose this is marginally related to the CoTM -- he can't have Ac5c/Ac3c/Ac8c.

X5 club 2 pair+

I think he either has a combo draw or two pair. The worst I put him on is 89o. Possibly a set or straight, but what a waste. Just fold (don't show, obviously). Say something to try to induce him to show, though.

Always fun to volunteer for this. The thinking is often: I feel like I virtually always have the best hand now, and I don't want to have make a, potentially bad, decision if the turn is a 5 or a club.

As far as blockers go what you know, that he doesn't know, is that flush draws are less likely because nobody has the nut flush draw.

But the most important thing is not to guess his thinking, it's that a normally passive player is now being aggressive.

Nice thread

This is a huge point. Also, we are new to the table and don't have a feel for how ******ed this guy is.

In this spot imo, the bottom of his range here is soemthing like 75, pair + OESD.

I'm doubtful a passive player would overshove 88 like this. I think at worst he has something like K5 type hand.

I think majority of his range is two pair hands, Pair + flush and Pair + OESD combos and of course the nuts. IN fact, I would think 50% of the time in this spot he has the nuts or a set and just doesn't know how to play it in a potentially sticky spot. In fact, I see this sort of overshove all the time by newbies who flop the world and stack sizes are awkward and they just don't know what to do so they just check/raise shove. Ironically, it is kinda funny how often they get called.

Given the size of the pot and our relative lack of reads due to our newness on the table, I'm 100% fine with a fold here.

Now, if V has been overshoving like this once per orbit, then sure, we snap him off. But when a loose passive player suddenly overbet shoves pot... we can feel good folding an overpair to it on a semi-wet board like this.

I actually strongly disagree with dgi on this one. I think we should give serious consideration to hands like 88/99--hands that are shoving because Villain believes it's the best hand (since our obvious AK has whiffed) but doesn't want to see another card because no card is good for small overpairs. This could very easily be a bet for protection by someone who doesn't want to play a turn and river, so he just jams now because his hand is too good to fold.

If we think Villain will never limp with a hand that's now an overpair, or if we think he'll ALSO jam sets and straights, then I have much less of a problem folding to this strange bet. But to me it looks like a protection bet. He will be happy when you fold and he also believes he has the best hand.

I think he has 4x5c 6x5c 8c9c, 88 a lot. You haven't shown that your willing to put a bunch of money in the middle yet that's what he's asking you to do.

readless you can fold and not feel awful about it, he may play 66/straights like this? But personally w/o evidence to the contrary, when someone raises crazy like this on a super wet board (+ it's heads up + he limp called + he's oop) I'm calling and expecting to be rooting for my hand to hold as opposed to hoping for running clubs or A/board pair. I'm calling pretty quick w/ 99+ here.

Prolly fist pump gii with the steamy sports bettor and smile at his overpair.

In the end, the bottom line for me is that we simply can't go broke here with an overpair with an SPR of 10+. This is rarely air, so it's typically draws that while behind still have ok equity, plus monsters who are absolutely crushing us (and I know players who will their vulnerable two pair like this, or level with sets), plus the occasional wtf move with smaller overpairs.

GcluelessNLnoobG

This.