I posted this in mhsnl but with the wrong numbers. Reposting here

Hero tag 26 asian stack $1170
V1 mid 30s asian man loose gambly type. Ive seem him Bluff occasionally, ive also seen him slowplay hands occassionally.
Covers hero
V2 mid 30s asian lady, also capable of bluffing, plays tighter than v1 however.
Covers both of us

Hero hj raises AQcc to 20
V1 calls sb
V2 calls bb

Flop $60
643 cc
Checks to hero who cbets $45
V1 flats $45
V2 check raises to $150
Hero calls $150
V1 3bets to $350 total
V2 folds

$710 currently in the pot. Hero has $1,000 back and v1 covers. Is this a jam or call?

Hero is getting 3.55:1 on a call to see turn, so its not a bad price,
But lets say hero jams, I would be risking $1000 to win ($710+$800) = $1510, meaning I need at least 40% equity assuming he always calls a shove 100% of the time. Not bad for nfd where i likely have 36.6% anyways, and were not counting my overcards possibly being good. Finally if there's any fold equity at all, it gets even better

Thoughts?

I would just call. If you hit he is going to spew into you based on the action thus far and he is most likely not folding to a jam on the flop.

I think this is a call here. If we do bink a club ott, we can easily get V to commit the rest of his stack given the pot size. And if we don't bink a club, given his raise sizing from only 150 to 350 even after a flat, it's a good chance he is going to bet relatively small ott to give us correct odds to draw. He'd probably bet 400 ott which would make the pot 1310 and give us around 31% equity and implied odds to stack off.

Given the flat otf, this sounds like a naked 5 or fd.


Calling.

Would love to hear a good reasoning why we should raise though if anyone has one.

Well i was thinking he merely flatted my cbet otf, which means as you suggested his range is a naked 5 or fd, then a shove is much better than calling.

I think V has 45 or 56 here and is going to pay you if you hit anyway. Do you really want to be stacking off to a small pair though if you brick? This guy is most likely not folding to your shove and he will almost always call you if you do hit.

I doubt making 1 pair will win this hand, so having "two overs" is worthless, unless V1 is having an aneurism.

If you give him a value only range of [sets,75s,52s], you need about 18% to see the turn and river each individually.

You're currently needing 22%. So its very close.

Given that he's raised so small OTF, you might just flat here and expect to have to call another smallish bet OTT to see the river.

Say you flat here, and he bets 1/2 remaining stacks OTT, $500. The call to see the river would be $500 for a pot of $1900, but knowing that you'll probably stack him if you hit your flush OTR. So its really $500 now to win $2900 if you hit. Easily giving you the right odds to flat the flop bet if you think he'll make a small turn bet.

If this line will not work, and you don't reasonably expect him to bet small OTT, I probably just fold. You have zero fold equity given her flop action.

Raising here with zero fold equity is quite bad.

I think you misread hand history. Were not against v2 the girl.
Were against the gambler who basically just backraised us

Keep in mind that it is the gambly man that stayed in and not the lady so this isn't necessarily a big hand (I would be surprised by even 2p). This just feels like a pair + draw that is being played aggressively, but poorly.

If i knew for certain that this guy only had 1 pair i would be fist pump jamming in this spot, even if i knew there was 0% chance he would fold.

Nfd and two overs vs a single pair is a coinflip not counting all the dead money

This is an interesting spot because of stack sizes and villain tendencies, there are a host of ranges and actions that may happen if we shove.

Villain could fold which would be awesome.
Villain could call and if so we do have the odds for this to be +EV since we are drawing to the nuts
Our overs can be live
Villain can also be drawing to the flush and we Crush
villain could have a set
villlain could have a pair + OESD combo
villain could have binked the straight

this is a high variance spot but given the odds and money involved and potential fold equity and potential to have villain dominated with a superior flush draw and possibility of our over cards being good (small likelihood but it gives us some more % points) I like a shove here.

In these spots I always hate to sacrifice fold equity by flatting merely to call a turn shove when we brick turn

imo, we flat in spots like these if we plan on folding when we brick turn.

But if we don't plan on folding if we brick the turn and we have odds to call a turn shove... then we might as well shove flop and take advantage of the few % points of fold equity we have. Not to mention we have more equity on the flop.

Its a high variance spot, but I don't mind shoveling it in.
Also, an interesting by-product is that in future hands, when you shove with a much stronger hand, this shove increases the likelihood of you getting called later when you smash the boards

meh, a little better than a flip, 55/45

okay okay i guess that is a flip

I understand that its a coinflip, but my point is why even flip when you will be able to take his money easily anyway? The way this guy played the hand makes me inclined to think that he is easy money if you just give him enough rope to hang himself. Why roll the dice against a gambly player unless you are way ahead?

Unless you really dont think you can outplay him, then it is very silly to get into marginal situations like this for stacks.

Hero's cbet sizing is too big here. I prefer $30-$35 instead of $45.

If this pot were 5-way or 4-way, I might recommend checking back flop. With only 2 other people in the hand, I think cbetting is fine. Nevertheless, the $45 cbet with NFD + 2 overs is too big.

Hmmm...

i did some quick pokerstoving and this spot looks a lot closer to 0EV than I thought...

I don't have time to do EV calculations but stepping back a bit I think its pretty close to flatting flop vs shoving flop...

that is, I think EV wise flatting flop and folding bricked turns vs flatting flop and shoving turn when we hit and get called and shoving flop are all going to be fairly close together EV wise given stack sizes and size of pot...

so basically, I think this is like a 3-way where each option is fairly damn close EV wise

Well youve two options, jam or call. Calling kinda sucks cuz if we brick were losing money. Jamming seems at worst slightly negative to neutral ev, and at best highly positive ev.

Then again, if v1's sizing on the flop is any indication, his turn bet is likely to be very small, giving us great odds to continue drawing. Heh live

Nitpick?

Whats the point of betting halfpot on the flop. The whole point of betting is to get folds. I usually bet according to texture, larger on wet boards smaller on dry boards.

I do agree more villians in hand mean a checkback is best

I suppose its possible the gambly guy has 1p+draw here, but his line sure sucks for that.

Clearly, if his range includes anything less the 2p, then ship it in.

But I think he's got a strong hand.

This is an interesting point and something I see all the time in a live game.

V blasts the pot on the flop such that the turn bet SHOULD be a shove, but come turn, V doesn't shove it...

Feels like this happens like 40% of the time in spots like these.
But what is funny is that these same V's will pay off a value bet on river when the flush binks on river...

If that is the case, then obviously calling flop is best...

but it just sucks calling such a huge flop bet "hoping" V doesn't shovel the money in on turn

Sigh. Do you cbet the same sizing with your air, value hands, and draws? In live poker, we can definitely change our cbet sizing exploitatively on different flop textures and with different types of hands to maximize our EV.

If u are trapped in this mentality where u think that cbetting $45 with AQcc on 643cc flop is good because you cbet $45 on 643cc with your entire cbetting range, then u are being balanced when there is no need to be balanced.

U definitely can semi-bluff people off weak pairs in other ways than just bombing the flop with a large cbet, and u are being very close - minded to higher +EV alternatives if u think u have to "bomb" wet flops with the NFD+2 overs to have any FEEDBACK on "wet flops."

If we call the flop what do we do when Villain jams turns we miss? What about if we catch a queen or A?

HLB,

Please tell me what is inherently wrong with cbetting 60% pot here instead of 75%+ pot. Do u just hate making "weak" looking cbets on wet flops?

That may be the case at 1-2 or 2-5, but when you start getting into higher level play balance does become a factor, and i dont like developing habits that will allow others to exploit me when i start playing 10-25 fulltime.

So to answer your question yes i do bet the same size with air, draws, and value. Starting from preflop all the way to river.
And its worked pretty well for me.
And im not saying your style is wrong or worse than mine. Every player has a different approach to the game

:spa.de:y LOL. You are right. You obviously play much higher stakes than me on a regular basis.

In any case, your cbetting sizing strategy is still wrong. If you are so concerned about balance, why bomb 643cc flop where your range is on average weaker and than a preflop caller's range?

Which is why it makes so little sense to shove. The way this guy played his hand is pretty bad (no matter what he has) so he is likely to continue to play it poorly on future streets. Why give away the edge against players like this

I'm pretty sure he was not implying that, but just making a standard observation as he sees it. Let's not devolve into measuring dick sizes here.

Developing the habit of robotically betting the same size in all the situations you mention is far worse. Get into the habit of thinking about what you are trying to achieve with your bet size first (and then how you can change it to exploit villains).