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2/3/5: 180BB deep, top two on monotone flop facing huge turn bet 2/3/5: 180BB deep, top two on monotone flop facing huge turn bet

07-04-2018 , 06:55 AM
2/3/5

H (900) opens K9hh in LJ,
CO and BTN (~500 stacks) call,
V in BB (1700) 3bets to 35,
All call.

Flop (140): K93ccc
V bets 110, only H calls

Turn (360): Ts
V bets 300, H ???

This is really never a bluff. I’m either behind a flopped flush like AQcc/AJcc/ATcc or KK/99 (that I block heavily) or ahead of AK or AA. Obviously I’m ahead of far more combos than the ones I’m behind given his preflop line, but once I call flop, I’m just unsure if he bets so big OTT with 1p that’s basically saying he’s all in. I’m so lost here as my entire stack is at risk here.

V seems like some random middle-aged loose ABC Asian player who’s been getting lucky. One hand I saw him play: overlimps T6o in CO 4-way, flop KK9r checks through, turn 7 he calls a $15 bet 3-way, river 8x he leads 40, gets BTN call and wins.

Another hand there were 3 limps and he made it 20 in BB with KQo. Didn’t see how that hand went down but turn was a K and he won the pot.

Haven’t really seen him 3b pre in the half an hour I’ve been at table.

Last edited by momo_uk; 07-04-2018 at 07:21 AM.
2/3/5: 180BB deep, top two on monotone flop facing huge turn bet Quote
07-04-2018 , 12:04 PM
Super, super trivial shove. You can't try to read the bet size here, he could easily be betting big to "protect his hand".
2/3/5: 180BB deep, top two on monotone flop facing huge turn bet Quote
07-04-2018 , 12:54 PM
Hand looks fine, now jam given remaining stack size. He's gonna have a lot of AcKx and AcAx and maybe even some AxAx or AxKx.
2/3/5: 180BB deep, top two on monotone flop facing huge turn bet Quote
07-04-2018 , 01:00 PM
Opening K9s from the LJ is bad. You didn't give your sizing, but it must have been <= 4x, since the 3b was only to 7x. Again, bad. You're just forcing yourself into a lot of oop play with a weak hand.
2/3/5: 180BB deep, top two on monotone flop facing huge turn bet Quote
07-04-2018 , 01:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AllTheCheese
Opening K9s from the LJ is bad. You didn't give your sizing, but it must have been <= 4x, since the 3b was only to 7x. Again, bad. You're just forcing yourself into a lot of oop play with a weak hand.

Sorry it was $15, it allows me to open more hands. Usually I’d fold pre but there was barely any 3betting and also, I wanted to play vs this V in the BB in position.

P.S. K9s is a RFI in the Upswing charts.

2/3/5: 180BB deep, top two on monotone flop facing huge turn bet Quote
07-04-2018 , 01:24 PM
^ can debate the outer borders of preflop ranges all day but I'm opening K9s from the LJ all day. I shouldn't even be posting the below rant for free tbh

/Rant

The number one restriction to being able to open wide is being 3bet. One of the most consistent adjustments in LLSNL and live poker in general is that people don't 3bet as much as they "should". While some of this can be attributed to strictly weaker/tigher/more passive players some of it can be attributed to a whole bunch of environmental factors:

-Live tables often have many weaker players making huge -EV decisions postflop so people call with that hands that could or should be 3bets in order to keep those players in the pot; many times a hand will be a +EV call and a +EV 3bet and a lot of players on average are taking the call lines rather than 3bet
-People overall call wider ranges preflop with less positional awareness compared to what would be "optimal" or recommended by a sim; also people aren't playing "3bet or fold" ranges very often such as EP vs EP or MP vs EP, SB vs CO etc. even vs large raise sizes like 5x
-You can call wider vs raises if there's less chance you will be squeezed from remaining players in the hand (seems like a self fulfilling reason not to 3bet; ie people dont 3bet enough because people dont 3bet enough, but it's true)

I'm not sure where you got your preflop RFI ranges from (upswing ranges recommend LJ opening K9s 100% of the time; even at strong tables) so I'll assume you got them from some sim or AI like snowie. What I'm trying to say is that because in practice you on average get 3bet so much less frequently than what is "optimal" or expected by a sim, there's no reason to expect that their opening ranges would still be optimal given those conditions.

If you want to see just how wide you can open preflop if you never get 3bet, run some sims with those conditions. Then input 3bet ranges of only typically LLSNL players' 3bets like QQ+ AK and see how wide you can open then, etc. etc. Spoiler alert, you can open a lot.

Obviously all these things change based on the remaining villains left in the hand; if there's an aggro monkey with a 3bet of 40% on the button then ya fold K9s in the LJ.

End rant/
2/3/5: 180BB deep, top two on monotone flop facing huge turn bet Quote
07-04-2018 , 01:41 PM
Link to full upswing chart? Not super worried about getting 3bet, but I would think the fact that you usually get called in two+ spots, with one or more IP against you would make this a -EV open. About half the time someone both has position and a better hand than you.
2/3/5: 180BB deep, top two on monotone flop facing huge turn bet Quote
07-04-2018 , 02:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by momo_uk
Sorry it was $15, it allows me to open more hands. Usually I’d fold pre but there was barely any 3betting and also, I wanted to play vs this V in the BB in position.

P.S. K9s is a RFI in the Upswing charts.
Then open for a larger sizing in LJ if your aim is to ISO.
2/3/5: 180BB deep, top two on monotone flop facing huge turn bet Quote
07-04-2018 , 02:24 PM
AllTheCheese, you gotta sub to the poker lab to get the full charts; there are free basic charts available at upswingpoker.com though.

Sometimes I can't really explain - or understand when other people try to explain why certain things are +EV - other than "the sims show it to be true". If I had to guess while we don't want calls, especially IP calls, villains defending with capped calling ranges, even overcalling, isn't enough to make the open -EV because we get to realize our flop equity. The EV disaster is when we don't get to realize the flop equity; ie having to fold preflop. I dunno man.

At LLSNL -especially with high rake- you're not going to go broke opening "too tight", and K9s is nearing the edge of the LJ opening range, so honestly I wouldn't even worry about it. My games are session fee so it's another reason I tend to open wider.
2/3/5: 180BB deep, top two on monotone flop facing huge turn bet Quote

      
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