Welcome to game flow 101.

You simply MUST consider your hand nutted and start piling like you did. Under no circumstance can you fold your equity no matter what V1 elects to do (Reading results I am quite surprised you did). Quick mention also that you value the As equity over the blocking effects here, so you should be even more confident to stack off on just about any turn even if it’s a 2x pot jam against one caller. Now, once raised, its such a no-brainer LFG spot because your SB is a joke too, so even a ridiculously strong ck-cold call 230 line is of little concern. Just see the board for what it is, one that provides some sort of equity to huge chunks of ranges these two guys likely play pre and continue with always post. Get that TPTK in, and you’re just not deep - it’s de facto 2-5 or bigger and 3 blind games are usually action packed or slow AF, this one ain’t slow.

I guess we agree to disagree but if I’m going to 3b and commit myself OTF, the only right move seems to be a shove.

As far as V1 is concerned, I don’t think he would limp KQ pre, so it’s QJ or worse. Which I think he will fold if I 3b any amount. Also, like I said before, I don’t think he’s the type to minraise any draw OTF so KJss or any other spade combo is out of question unless it’s Qxss exactly.

A,


Exactly. That’s the key point of this whole thread.

Based on reads this is probably (70%) a scared blocking raise and plausibly either a weird value line (10%) or a draw (20%). We want to keep the scared hand in, would like the draw to fold but can play pretty accurately against it, and can probably play accurately against the value line since he doesn't seem likely to make multibarrel bluffs.

V2 is 20% slowplaying a set and 80% on a flush draw.

I'd have to weight the EV given those possibilities between protecting our hand (large pot) and keeping worse hands in both ranges. I lean toward the latter. The plan for the latter is:

• Call $130 more closing action. Pot is $850. About $500 behind.
• On flush turn if V2 in SB checks, check fold to a V1 bet if you're not getting odds to redraw and call if you are. V1 isn't often (<10%) firing into two people on anything you beat.
• On flush turn if SB bets I think you always have odds to redraw.This other villain isn't ever (1%) firing into two people on anything you beat but redraw plus value from V1 makes this a call.
• On blank turn, if SB checks check.
  • If V1 bets rather small ($300) just CRAI whether or not SB comes along. People think of bet sizing in absolutes and this is another scared bet.
  • If V1 bets enough to put you AI, probably call.
• On blank turn, if SB ($400 behind) makes a non trivial bet just fold.
• If turn checks through shove any non-flush river for value. Probably fold to a SB bet on a flush card. Probably fold to a V1 bet. (He's probably more scared of the flush as you are even though it's not rational, since no one should be checking a flush on the river.)

Overall, your flop SPR was about 6, so stacking off with TP2K in a 3-way pot isn't a huge leak. After your correct flop bet, your SPR is a little over 1. So if you lose a stack to a set, good for them. It's not a flaw in your overall strategy (except against nits who would never stack off w/o a set which isn't your read).

But people are so super-exploitable, in this case by betting small to telegraph fear and by not bluffing on flush boards. You can probably do better than auto stacking off.

I am a bit confused here. DO we really think we are ahead of BOTH V's ranges on this flop with top/top? Heads up versus "MR. Call any two", fine I say we go with it. But V2 check/flatted $230 here which seems uber strong to me.

I would much prefer a flat OTF and then see what happens OTT. Pot is laying us $720/$130 and close the action...I don't see any reason to shove here and actually think it is quite a big overplay. Our relative position (in between) will allow us to either (1) see V2 shove the turn and then we know we are beat or (2) allow us to check to V1 on most turns and see both act before committing additional $$.

I think a fold is too weak here given the price, but I think calling is way better than shoving vs 2 opponents here.

It is strong in a vacuum, but OP gave us some pretty clear language that V2 was not to be respected and V1 is just a joke to whom you are never folding TP. So, now that we're way outside the vacuum, there are a lot of dynamics in play here that you must be able to identify in-game and make crusher decisions based on that info.

Sure, I came in post results, but when I saw TPTKBDNFD, not that deep, against clown-types clicking buttons on the most dynamic board imaginable for a 2b pot (80%+ of their ranges likely has some type of equity they want to explore), and facing a second flop decision in a soon-to-be 4-500bb pot, there is just no getting around gii asap and holding. There also is no calling and deciding when the whales make pots huge, you just widen your gii range and pad your BR because you're in a goddam dream game and you're ready to lose a million making hugely profitable decisions if you have to.

Fair points. I just feel like ever drooler button clickers rarely check/call $230 cold without a pretty solid range (meaning NFD's, sets, and 2P) and on this flop where we really only cover 1 card versus V1 who could easily have two pair (he plays ATC right?), it seems like a really thin shove to me. So I guess that makes me wonder whether long term in a 3 way pot , this shove is actually +EV. Again, outside the vacuum HU against either it is a fistpump, no doubt. But when you get multi-way, I just wonder if we are sticking in 150+ BB's where our actual EV, if positive, is really low (like I don't know, shoving $600 to win on average $610 or something like that). I will concede that maybe you are correct and that the way to move from beating the game handily too crushing it is to take these high variance/lower yet +EV plays. I simply might not have enough time/hand experience in the game to come to that conclusion yet.

I think something that people often forget about in live poker is the impact a whale can have on the overall gameflow.

Tight people become less tight, nits become less nitty, and people you thought don't spew tend to spew.

It's important to realize how much ranges can adjust based on these types of spots being in the game.

If he happens to have you beat here, you have to be sportsman enough to hand him the money. he deserves it.

This really can't be emphasized enough.

The theoretical implication is that, when you have not just Level 1 uncertainty about your cards but also Level 2 uncertainty about how well you can assess your opponents' ranges, you need to call more and especially fold less. Ed Miller recently wrote a Card Player article on this.




I'm fine with calling the flop but really (I forget what I advocated above) we're pretty committed to felting on non-terrifying boards, although depending on the sequence a flush card could be terrifying.