Got stacked for $1000 pot last night in 2/3 $500 max, breaking a nice winning streak.

HJ villain good but loose reg opened 15, hero 3bet SB to 60 w AK spades.

Villain 4bet to $125. **** he has aces. Hero calls.

Flop Ax Js 3x

Check, check. Why is he checking? Maybe he has kings. Probably aces though.

Turn 8s. Hero bets 85. Villain calls. Please give me spade.

River 7x. Crap. Let's let him bluff. Hero checks, villain jams. This mf has aces. Theres too much money in pot, maybe he has kings. I dont ever see him bluff, he has aces here. Too much money in pot hero calls.

He has aces lol. Of course.

If he is "good" pre-flop is a jam.

River you should also just be jamming yourself. You lose to AA either way but you can't be letting any of his Ax bluffs off the hook cheaply.

I thought about that, but although hes "good", its on a relativity scale to the population here so its not saying a whole lot, and ive NEVER seen him 4bet before even with queens, so I gave him kings and aces. I just couldnt fold for such a small 4bet. Just a crap spot really.

There's another leak. If you think his range is truly KK+, you need to fold it pre.

I know it sucks to fold when he only 2x your bet, but you're not getting the right price to win vs AA/KK and might actually hit and lose.

I don't know this guy doesn't even understand proper 4bet sizing when 160bb+ deep. Not sure how good he can be.

Jamming preflop would not be good since you are getting amazing odds on a call and it is 160bbs+ deep, solver mix call/jam vs bigger 4bets here and you know these guys way under 4bet.

Flop is suspect, when players X back flop in range bet spots and show heavy aggression on later streets they are weighted towards value.

You have to fold river an an exploit. People don't turn KQs/KK into bluffs here, it's way more likely he has AA/JJ.

Sorry you lost though

Edit: Fixed stack sizes and agree we can just fold preflop vs nitty live 4bet ranges although it is hard to do in game.

What's wrong with his sizing?

It looks perfect to me. The only thing I'd do differently is I wouldn't check back the flop. I'm betting like $30.

I edited my post but the point still holds true.

4bet sizing increases with stack size so you don't minraise IP when 150bb+ since you need to hit target SPRs. At 200bb you go almost 3x IP.

I agree folding is better preflop though since 4bet ranges are too tight. I actually prefer calling preflop for this reason. If the metagame is tight 3bets/insanely tight 4bets you don't want to play your hands face up and the first hand someone puts you on when you 3bet is AK so you will lose value postflop.

This doesn't make sense. Solvers don't give a damn about your SPR thresholds.

You're also treating the number of bbs as absolute when the initial open was 5bb already, thus effectively making it play smaller.

Yea my danger radar was going off from the very beginning. And yes on flop i was very suspicious of no cbet, that and the tiny 4bet pointed to AA and only AA.

I actually tanked for like 4 minutes on the river and apologized to the table. I just knew he had it and I closed my eyes and threw it in anyway bc i wouldve been sick if he showed up w A5s even though i knew how unlikely that was.

If I had like 400 left its an easy fold quite honestly.

Yea Doodoo im putting "good" for this guy in quotation marks. Hes good compared to the population but like I said thats not saying a lot. I think hes a winning player but hes been running really hot lately. He plays way too many hands and makes a lot of bad loose calls.

Im disappointed in myself because I am good enough to make this fold and I knew I shouldve and I didnt. Poker gods shouldve given me a spade river to punish this guy for his stupid 4bet size and turn flat. THERE'S NO JUSTICE!

huh

Yeah I'm just talking about theory, solvers care about SPR's because they are omniscient in all nodes. If you want to make the argument that because the initial open was 5bb so the 4bet can be smaller that is valid.

But solvers size up preflop 4bets when stacks are deeper that has already been proven.

His sizing pre is fine. 3x would be awful.

It's just too expensive to bluff for 3x, and if he never bluffs, then he shouldn't make it so hard for you to continue either.

He played the hand better than you.

The 5bb open (assuming it's standard) is making it play a lot shallower.

You can't compare it to 4betting after say a 2.5bb open and blindly say "well villain should 4bet 3x because it's 167bb deep."

3x IP here would be stupid.

I didn't say it should be 3x, at 200bbs it should be close to 3x 4bet in theory.

You seem to be coming at me for no apparent reason, why is that?

You immediately said his 4b sizing was bad which I strongly disagreed with, that's all.

And your reasoning for it seemed too "rigid" and didn't factor the 5bb open already making it not so deep.

I think his 4bet size is too small too because it gives me too good of odds. I dont think he should go 3x though. Something like $150 like 2.5x would be appropriate I think, but its a small distinction and not that big of a deal.

I wont dispute that he played the hand better, although all my options suck and even though I know I couldve and shouldve folded river its still a bit of a cooler. But im disappointed in myself for not folding.

He definitely reeled me in and set the hook.

No you're right I misread the hand I thought we were 1k deep initially that's why I edited it. And I agree with your logic that the 4bet can be smaller because he opened 5bb.

I'm used to analyzing online hands that's why my thought process was "rigid" since preflop is very automatic but I will analyze the sizing's better in the future when I post feedback on live hands.

It's definitely a cooler, preflop at least. I'd just make a note that when people X back flop spots when they are supposed to range bet and then show high aggression on later streets they are way underbluffing.

Yeah that's fair.

I do agree that in actual deep stack scenarios we should size up a bit and go more than 2x, but this hand doesn't really qualify as a deep stack scenario. The 5x open pretty much makes it play like 100bb already, when compared to an online hand.

Also unrelated, but my philosophy is that even in deeper stack scenarios we should still be sizing down our 4-bets vs weaker players, for the following reasons:

1) We are more skilled and more studied than our opponents in 4-bet pots, so we should welcome more action, rather than discourage it. We want more streets and bigger SPR with a skill advantage.
2) It's cheaper to bluff that way.

I agree if you are a better player than your opponent then the further you can deviate from theory. But if my opponent is better than me then the closer I will try to play to theory.

This is part of what makes poker great imo, there are so many different strategies that are profitable because your profitability is directly correlated to your exact opponent. If your opponent has massive leaks in certain spots then you can disregard theory and go off script to exploit him, but it helps to know the theory first so you can know when to not use it.

Yea thats one of the biggest tells. It holds mostly true in online, but especially true live. The fact that i knew all this and still couldn't let it go is the worst part. But my last 3 sessions were +1800, +360, +590, so i was due for some regression. I get so jealous of people that just sunrun for months.

Theres a bad reg i play with a lot that every time i went in for like 2 months he was sitting on an absolutely massive stack and he was regularly calling off preflop all ins for 150bb, 200bb with KQo and AJo and hitting straights, rivering flushes w 52s after calling 3bets preflop, just nonsense.

Such is life.

Sorry bout that

assuming spr's are at least 4-5, i think a good general rule in 3b pots is your top pair hands are worth 1 medium-large (relative to pot) bet on one street but no more vs the general population, so we should default to that absent reads. i.e. the general population will bet or call a bet with worse for that amt but not more. so if any more money goes in with top pair hands you're getting it in bad.

that's not an emoji, it's part 2 of a multi thread joke

hey rick, need you to post numbers man