2/2 - 10 players - 650 eff

BTN is a young (25-30) big black guy, he's playing too many hands, regularly making weird random bluffs, but he does have some idea of what he's doing. He hates folding.


BTN straddles to 5
Folds to Hero in MP with TT I open to 25 (people were calling way too much)
4 callers including BTN

Flop: 754 (125)
Hero bets 55
BTN raises to 140, everyone else folds
Hero calls

Turn: J (405)
Hero checks
BTN shoves 485 (he has me covered)
Hero ???

This has an easy answer. If you think he's bluffing over 36% of the time, you call. If not, you fold. The vast majority of low stakes players don't bluff off 300 BB ever, let alone 36% of the time. Unless your read is he is an unique player, fold.

He's pretty unique yeah, probably not 36% unique though.

This isn’t how equity works unless on the river. His semibluffs have equity. He needs to be bluffing much more than 36% to justify a call.

I need 36% equity to continue.
I know he's getting to the turn with a very wide range.
If he turns all the straight and flush draws into a bluff, I have around 40%

Doubt he's doing this with TP, so that gives me some extra equity.
It's actually pretty close looking at it in Flopzilla.

This guy is definitely bluffing often and I've caught him several times making random bluffs.
Haven't seen him bluff for this amount though, but I don't think the amount matters to him.

Fold turn. You have a club in your hand., making flush draws less likely. You might already be behind to Jxcc. If you want to call with any overpairs, pick the ones w/o a club.

Villain is raising into three uncapped ranges on flop, which is very strong. It is even debatable whether flop is a continue given TT is quite low in your range and you hold a club.

I think the correct move was to shove the flop.

When you bet, it looks like a continuation bet as you were the PFR, but most of your PFR hands missed that flop (AJ+, KJ+, QJ). So BTN could be raising as a bluff thinking you have nothing.

That means one of the following.

1) Villain has a made hand you can beat (99, 88, 7x)
2) Villain has nothing.
3) Villain has a draw (XcXc, 6x, 76, 65, 64...)
3a) That doesn't beat you (Ah6s{38%}, 9d6d{34%}, etc.)
3b) That technically beats you (Ac2c{51%}, Ac6c{59%})
4) Villain has a monster (77, 55, 44, 86).

What he's very UNLIKELY to have is JJ+ (a better overpair) - because those are likely to have been raised preflop, not called, given the action.

The only one you're really worried about is #4. And those are SO RARE compared to 1, 2, and 3 that you are almost certainly ahead *right now.*

Now, that said, there is LITERALLY NO CARD that you want to see come out on the turn except the three non-club deuces and the two tens.

Any J+ means that a lot of villain's nothings improve to beat your tens. Any low-card makes a straight more likely. Any paired card means that there's now possibilities of trips. Any club has you worried about the flush draw.

So don't let villain see the turn. Shove the flop.

If you shove the flop will you get calls with worse? Absolutely. I think 99, 88 calls there. Weirdly, I also think you fold out better too -- there are a lot of draws in there where it would be *correct* for Villain to call - including some which have more than 50% equity over TT. But villain doesn't necessarily know that, and may fold some of those draws as well, turning your TT into a... well, not a bluff... but by being aggressive you can guarantee more equity with a fold than you could expect with a call. (Honestly, that villain doesn't like to fold has to be part of your calculus here, but I still think it makes sense to shove because there's got to be a lot of naked bluffs in his range too...)

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As played:

When the jack comes out and villain shoves, I don't think you can call. The only hand you are beating now is a draw, and I think a lot of those hands check to get a free river rather than shoving. You're now up against turned jacks, monsters, and pure bluffs, and you're not getting enough pure bluffs to make the call worthwhile.

I think you have to just fold and lick your wounds.

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P.S.: I don't think you meant anything by it, and lord knows some of the "learn to read poker tells" books written in the 1970s read like the Dearborn Independent's Greatest Hits, but instead of describing villain as a "young big black guy" to imply a certain read, skip the description and go straight to the read. If you think he's inexperienced or not risk-averse because he is young, just say: "inexperienced, aggressive". Forget the description of the person and instead go with the read.

There are exceptions: Old Man Coffee, for example, is shorthand for a player who is tight-passive and mainly at the table to socialise... but the read of OMC can work for any player that's a tight-passive nit... even if they're a young, tea drinking woman.

It may be huge in terms of absolute, but it's only slightly bigger than pot, so it's hardly huge in terms of relative. In fact reasonable size bets are almost certainly pot commiting, so you could argue it's perfectly reasonable.

What does his sizing tell us?
Why is he not betting 100-200 to leave a decent bet on the river?

The sizing actually made me think it wasn't a value bet, since he'd want to get called not scare me away.

There's only 4 combos of 86s, I don't think this guy is bad enough to call pre with 86o, but he may have some weird straddle/pot odds logic that he should call any two here?
The sizing is very polarizing, up to a point I think he only has 86 or a bluff here.
A set is possible (not JJ, he would've 3b that pre) but still slightly less likely because of bet sizing.
Don't think this is ever two pair or TP because of the sizing.

There are a LOT of bluffs possible and I've seen this guy turn made hands that he knows are no longer good into bluffs, something like 76 or even 87?

It's a 485 dollar over bet in 2/2; it's huge.

Well there's your answer. You only have a bluff catcher pretty much, and his rage is super wide calling otb pre. Also, has he bluffed into 4 players before?

Grunch

Flop should be check/decide at a high frequency.

Fold turn.

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This was only the 2nd time he was this deep.
Usually he's only 200-300 deep.

He has certainly made random bluffs into multiple people, in fact he showed one a bit earlier.

Why?
The callers don't have that many 5's or 4's
They're going to have suited hands like Ax, Kx, Qx and other hands like 87, 76 maybe some 54s
Stuff like 86o and 74s are possible but unlikely

If I check this flop I can just as well open fold.
There's about 30 bad cards for me that can come on the turn, with 5 players in the hand I'm just losing all my equity.
I'd have to fold on any J+, any club, any 3, 6 or 8 and probably any 7, 5 or 4

I would even be more inclined to fold then

You opened the hand and got four callers, the callers will have 55, 44, and 77. 86, 87, 65 is almost flipping vs your range and isn't releasing on the flop.

If you were 3 ways or hu I can see a case for a cbet, but, 5 ways I'm looking to show down my hand as cheaply as possible.

If you bet, get raised on this board, and call, you might as well start handing over your chips to your villains before the river. It's 2/2 not, 5T or above where you need to balance and protect, especially 5 ways on a board that doesn't connect with your opening range.


edit: adding below comments

(Equity, Win, Tie)
Player 1: 36.00% 34.96% 2.075% [TcTd]
Player 2: 64.00% 62.97% 2.075% {77, 55-44, AcJc, Ac9c-Ac8c, Ac6c, Ac4c-Ac2c, KcJc+, QcJc, 9c8c, 86s+, 75s+, 65s, 54s}

Board: [7c 5c 4d ? ?]


You can come up with 35-40% equity when you start refining the villain's range. But, the general population's tendency will be to flat their NFD, not try to raise you out of a pot where you are repping strength. If he's doing that, you made a call on the turn and was good, then NH. But, in general, you'll find much better spots than this.

Would betting less (or not betting) the flop be a horrendous play here?

The board is very dynamic. Many of the hands that continue against a smaller bet will have decent equity against his value range. There is a good chance he can't value bet again on the river or gets donk jammed into and has a bluffcatcher.

Why do you want to play a bigger pot when you'll be in a bad spot on 30 turns? You should bet hands that play better on turns and rivers with this much stack left behind.

Because if I bet and 1 or even 2 players call, an over card isn't as scary.
But if I check and everyone stays in the pot, any over card kills my hand.

Or in other words.
If I bet and get only 1 call, I have much higher equity against that single range on the turn.
Opposed to not betting, then my equity goes way down on most turn cards.

If your goal in betting this board is to clean up equity against overcard, I would go much smaller. Like $30-$40.

By the way, what were the results of this hand? He have the set?

I’m confused by the preflop/flop action.

There’s a BTN straddle so action starts at SB, correct? Everyone folds to hero in MP and all 4 players behind him (MP2, MP3, CO, BTN) call? If that’s the case, on the flop first action is on hero and he bets.

How does BTN raise next before everyone else folds?

You're correct.
On the flop Hero bets, fold, fold, fold, BTN raises

I could've made that clearer

I have to agree with balerion1 , against 3-5 villains , I just check give up to any real action , overpair can stand no pressure at all .... I definitely cannot call the raise as once you call your hand is a bluffcatcher for stacks .....a wise friend of mine has a quote " pick the low hanging fruit it's easier on your back "

Think he has us. If we had aces or kings I would call him down. Queens and jacks are close, but 10s is weak enough I am comfortable folding.

I probably shove the flop. As played I probably fold the turn.

Going to guess the V is a player that when he straddles on btn is going to fold to a raise very rarely . Certainly not $25. So his range is like about as wide as you can get. I think a check raise on the flop is probably the right play being willing to go to the felt. If his random hand hit the flop so be it.