2/2 Live. V is a MABG, and has been at the table about 45 minutes, and bought in for the max ($300). No history with him. He’s got a really loose preflop range from what I’ve seen, and has gotten there on a couple draws to get his stack over $400. Kinda feels like a gambler, but hasn’t been the aggressor in a pot yet. OTTH

A couple limps to Hero($500) in HJ with AA, raise to $15. V($425) calls in SB, BB folds, 1 other limper calls. (Pot: $49)

Flop: Q94r. Checks to hero, who bets $30. V raises to $85, limper folds, hero calls. Wasn’t totally sure if I should just be getting it in here, or call and evaluate turn. Thought jamming would fold out a bunch of Qx, and bluffs, and mostly just get called by sets and 2p, so I opted to call. (Pot: $219)

Turn: 5x, completes rainbow. V jams. Hero?

Haven’t logged a ton of live hours yet, but I’ve learned to believe post flop aggression, especially from a player who didn’t raise pre. This isn’t OMC, so QQ would 3b pre, so the sets are just 44/99. Q9 makes sense too. The overbet jam I thought was kinda weird if V had a set, considering the board is so dry, so that really just leaves Q9, or I guess Q4s/94s if V was really loose. Are there enough value hands I can beat to make this call, or does the terrible price I’m getting make this a fold? Or maybe this is a dumb post, and I should be fist pump calling, and just live with it if I’m beat?

Has he played the draws aggressively or passively?

Passively. Hasn’t bet/raised them until he got there. There are no draws on this board besides JT so that wasn’t much of a factor in my thought process.


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if he flopped a set good for him
I'm not folding here

This is a tough one, but it's probably a fold. At best he has AQ, and we block a Q. Maybe he has KQ, but do people really jam with that? They usually just call down.

Vs. a basically passive player, it's a fold, but that doesn't mean I could fold.

I think you can probably exclude or underweight draws given past behavior and the behavior of typical 1/2.

I swear every time I fold in this spot with a J or Q high board where I have an overpair, they triumphantly show AJ or AQ to show that they were "ahead of you", and I murmur "nice hand" and silently curse to myself.

That said, I think fold is probably right. In general Ed Miller's rule that big bets particularly turn or river are generally very strong holds, and for the times it's not, they're not doing it at a rate where you can pick them off remotelu profitably.

I would fold turn, when a passive middle-aged guy takes this line it is almost always two pair terrified of the board counterfeiting their hand