Join Date: May 2023
Posts: 1,868
Betting $10 into $80 is too cute for our hand against this board and this V. Just check-call or lead for 1/2 to 2/3 pot.
Which line I'd take would depend on history with V. If we've seen him check back made hands on the turn, I'd just check-call. If he's mostly barreling turn with thick value, I'd bet out. If he's seen us hitting the aggression button when we hit a draw on earlier streets, I'd be more likely to check call. If he's seen us check raise the nuts on the river, I'd just lead out.
AP, I dunno. V could have just called with all the marginal showdown value hands in his range. We could have a lot of 2P and some straights here. If we've seen V check back turn with strong hands, I might find a fold. Otherwise, with no other reads, I guess we call, but I'm not loving it when he takes this sizing on this run-out. This feels like a pretty nutted hand and a V who was hoping we'd donk lead bigger, and is now hoping we'll want to bluff catch with a hand that is stronger than we appeared on the turn.
To re-run this, imagine we check to V for a third time. He's probably not betting huge, when we showed so much weakness. Even a huge pot sized bet would only be $80, but he's probably only betting $40-$50. Easy call. Or imagine we bet $40-$50, and he raises. Easy fold. Now we're looking at a huge 2x pot overbet from a pro who always seems to know exactly where he's at.
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