1/3 no limit. Four Handed.

Hero (550): Playing pretty solid attempting to rehabilitate LAG spew fish image and has been playing TAG for most of night.

Villain (600): 20 something says he new to poker his lingo and actions verify this. On a previous river bit with another player he said "I put u all in". Running like GOD hitting lots of hands and is calling almost any bet with any pair on any flop. Also c-bet air on any board in a hand he has raised pre flop. Is aware he is getting hit in the face by the deck and has repeatedly said it is affecting the way he plays hands.

History: Villain winning most hands because outdrawing Hero but Hero was involved in a hand with Villain about 20 hands back where Hero triple barreled bluffed vs villain who folded bottom pair on river to a 90 dollar bet and Hero showed villain. (I know its stupid I should not have showed)

The hand
Four handed, Folded to SB, SB calls 3
Hero 10 10(550) BB Raises to 15
Villain (600) SB Calls 15
POT (30)
Flop 2 4 5
Villain checks, Hero Bets 25 Villan Calls
POT (80)
Turn 3
Villain Checks, Hero Checks
River 9
Villain bets 65, Hero ?

He may have missed a c/r OTT with a straight or SD+pair that turned in to two pair, but he may also be overvaluing a pair and/or trying to "pay you back" for your bluff.

I call here. We're good at least 1/3 of the time, and we only need to be good one out of every 3.25 times.

Fold.

I like pre-flop and flop action and sizing.

Turn check is good. Very tough to get value vs worse with the 4 straight, and you also don't want to build a large pot with your pair. Villain can definitely have 6x and Ax in his range. Ax can in fact be quite a large % of it after limp/calling pre. I expect a lot fewer pocket pair hands (like 77+) because of the limp pre from SB.

Just fold to the river imo. Ax is very possible, two pair like 32, 43 is possible, though I think unlikely since I expect him to be more polarized than that. We really narrowed his range down on the flop and turn to hands that would generally want to get to showdown and hands that beat you. I don't expect him to turn random 5x like 75s into a bluff, and, even so, there aren't many worse made hands to bluff. So he's quite polarized, but in terms of bluffs, maybe a gut shot like 87 is most likely? There isn't much. And problem is, Ax is highly prevalent in his range and combinatorically - say ~A2s-ATs, A6o-ATo = well, not going to do the math, but yes, there'll be something like > 100 Ax combos.

Finally,

suggests he will not fold gut shots on the flop. He's getting hit hard by the deck, and it's affecting the way he plays.

The most likely result is that he'll chase longer-odd draws hoping and/or expecting to win.

This will be a bluff or a worse pair sometimes but your losing to too many hands for calling to be worth while. A lot of random AX made the wheel and are beating you.

If villain was habitually bluffing or might bet a worse hand for value you can occasionally try to pick off a bluff here. It is a bad board for it though because it is easy for you to have the wheel because you made the preflop raise.

This is a very good point. I don't know if the V is sophisticated enough to be aware of it, but if we give him partial credit, it still lowers his 2-pair and bluff combos drastically. I revise my earlier advice in light of it, and think we're not going to be good 1/3 of the time after all. I make it maybe 1/4, and we're paying too much for that.

i'd be pretty happy with the way the hand was played if I folded river. it sucks, but he's getting lucky. getting lucky + 4 straight/flush boards arent usually great times for us to bluff catch, especially when we conceivably could have a straight, like QuadJ and Garick have talked about.

i was playing this weekend and the guy in the 2 seat said to the guy in the 7 seat, 'how much do you have, i want to put you all in', 7 seat didnt say anything, just showed his chips. 2 seat sat and counted it down from accross the table, it was like 37 bucks. then he string bet like 8 times to get 37 in the pot (never declaring a bet of 37, no one stopped him). the whole ordeal took like 3 minutes. apparently just throwing a large stack of chips in the middle and moving the game along is not possible.

I would bet $40 OTT

(* actually, go small - same bet $25)

assuming it's to rep the straight, but does that fold anything we're behind?

what are we doing on all rivers? c/f?

Very loose, very unsophisticated villain checked to us... it is a very safe bet for value. There are so many hands in his range that have 10~20% equity that I am going to charge or have them fold.

Yes, villain has some two-pairs, some Ax, some 6x... but he also has way more loads and loads of
2x
3x
4x
5x

Since villain is never going to do anything tricky (any raise is EZ fold) - bet anything ~1/4 pot or above to deny him his equity. TT is far from a lock to stay ahead at showdown.

Point is that villain won't exploit us for doing something as obvious as betting tiny for tiny value. Even betting $15 is fine.

It also often stops V from betting river (if he calls)... letting us set or price for showdown - a blocking bet 1 street ahead of time.

Would be great to have some idea of how aggressive V is. He might raise many of his Ax pre in a SB vs BB situation. I know he is super fishy but I think even really amateur players know that they can be lighter in those situations, not sure about this...

btw call the river

+1.

As played, I fold.

4-handed game might die soon, and I rather not give up 21bb in a thin spot.

And yes, I am folding river to this V

Grunch:

Given that V is on a hot streak, I fold.

OP, what's your range for villain to limp/call 15 pre-flop?

Bip!, I don't expect much 2x, 3x, 4x, and 5x that doesn't include Ax (i.e. A2, A3, A4, A5), 6x (65s, A6), or two pair (32s, 43s, 54s). And by the way, that's an insane # of combos.

But it really depends on whether V plays a ton of junk pre-flop including random unsuited unconnected junk hands. I don't really see a read to suggest he does.

Unless OP surprises me be saying V would play hands like K3s and Q5o or w/e, I like the turn check. Agree we're not always behind, and it's a fair point that TT doesn't always hold up, but to use the reciprocal of your data point, TT does hold up 80-90% of the time. That's a lot of the time, and betting for protection isn't a big priority.

Also, a very small turn bet can absolutely unintentionally induce.

We bet 15 into 80, V is like wtf and lol makes it 40. Is that because we're beat? Because we accidentally got V to spaz? Do we actually have to call getting > 5:1? V might not be capable of exploitation, but it doesn't take a strategic genius to raise a tiny bet.

There's also a good case just to keep the pot small. When we bet the turn, we sometimes build the pot. Then when or if V leads the river (a turn bet may get us to a free river showdown, but it may not), perhaps with smaller sizing as a PSB %, we have a tougher decision whether the odds are good or if we need to abandon whatever equity we might have vs. his range in the now larger pot. When we check the turn, we get to make a great river decision in position - if V bets very small, maybe we snap him off. If he bets larger, maybe we fold. If he checks, then we might feel great about putting in that small value bet, and it should be even more profitable than the turn bet because V has now checked twice.

Certainly - OP would need to clarify what he expects.

I took the action to indicate any two cards (* except good cards).

I agree with wily that seemingly most hands that we beat aren't giving us value on the turn.
I tanked for nearly three minutes trying to decide what to do. I tried to think of a hand I could beat and the only ones were 5x or 4x and i just was having a hard time seeing him check the turn with a hand like that and then barrel nearly pot into a river with a 4 straight.
As far as the aggression factor of this villain he wasn't overly aggressive he would def limp an ax from the small blind possibly doing a weak pot building raise to 8. If he had any hand that he deemed valuable and wanted to raise he was going to 15. He limped aq suited a few times but would raise 23 diamonds or some other suited connector. Even after my three minutes of tanking I still did not know what to do. I just couldn't understand how he could bet the river without the straight I mean to put out 65 dollars when Maybe I could have a six or an ace?

As far as people saying that I should bet the turn? what happens if he x/r me on the turn? Am i just insta folding? Or what if he flats the turn then leads the river? with a now pot sized bet of nearly 160? I don't know I just was so worried about his reactions to me betting the turn I was just trying to do pot control.

I will post the results and what I did if people r interested. And thanks for all the thoughts need all the help i can get.

Any aggression by him and you fold.

So many people feel it is a tragedy to bet-fold and especially to bet-fold when they think the have show down value. This isn't a classic spot for value, but I still prefer a small bet-fold. It just doesn't induce bluffs from these types of villains. Mostly it freezes them if they have the non-nuttish hands.

His pre flop calling range of 15 is basically any two cards including the garbage ones u mentioned wily. however when he was check calling he almost usually had something or the possibility of something. he just isn't proceeding with complete air after flop it might just be like 57 or 48 or similar but he has something.

Hero is not in position to bet-fold.

I sigh call here with the odds. This kind of V has a really wide range in this spot. Honestly given your description of V and the preflop action it would not surprise me if he shows up with some garbage like 75 or even 87. Would he really bomb the river if he made the wheel, or had a 65/64 type of hand? I think the question to ask here is are you also folding if the river is any Ace? Are you folding if the river is any K, Q, or J? I'm guessing Hero folded and V showed something like KJ.

hero tank calls
villain tables ace 2