Quote:
Originally Posted by ebet33
Lol what a miserable post were so deep what you think he's 6b shoving?
I am guessing bro. So are you. This is HU poker, where gameflow is the entire game in this type of spot.
I would guess that a guy with a 3b strategy north of 20% playing vs a guy with a 3b stat of ~15% is going to show up with a lot of bluffs here in this spot.
Since this is his first 4b in ~10-15 opportunities you have to guess whether or not in this particular spot he is the player type to bluff enough to make 5b/c more profitable then flatting the 4b.
I am guessing that he is going to 6b/pile enough A2-A5s to make our calls +ev and when he chooses to flat the 5b I think we make more money there as well.
Its basically game theory spot, is our EV (when he flats the 5)(% he flats the 5) + EV (when he 6b piles)(% he piles) + EV (when he folds)(% he folds) > EV (of playing a 4b pot oop).
I can try to design some kind of cardrunnersev decision tree to model this, but because we are essentially just guessing about what sort of ranges he is going to chuck certain hands into its kind of pointless.