Hero has $3,100 and opens JdJc utg+2 to $60, MP pro flats then new player flats in CO(he didn't have to post to come in), blinds flat.

Tc6s3c ($300)

Checked to Hero makes $200 cbet, MP flats, CO thinks for 10secs raises to $900, folded to Hero..

CO looks like a pro, stack arranged neatly, maybe plays higher from how he knows higher stakes players walking around. Doesn't look like a donk at all.. MP is a pro fairly unremarkable most likely didn't flat the cbet with a monster..

I think all 3 options are possible? Let's hear it..

I'm just flatting here and seeing the turn where I'm not folding too often and probably c/stuffing. If vill has a set he can have my stack, but I think you will see draws here way more often, and lately I've been getting raised a lot by 1 pair hands so with no info on vill and not a deep stack I'm not sure I'd even consider folding at this juncture.

i feel like flatting is best but i hate it because every river but a jack is going to suck when villain bets. i honesty might fold.

Fold. Not pushing much equity edge against anything, and have 2 outs most of the time.

Fwiw neat stacks are the biggest nits

I could count on one hand the amount of times I've seen someone raise to $900 in a spot like this and show up with anything less than two pair plus or a big draw. I think it's a very, very easy fold.

So to those who say FOLD, what is the minimum you're getting it in with?

i don't think there is much diff between having jj or aa here.

My experience is the complete opposite, and we aren't going to see 2p very often and its really hard to flop a set. If the other guy is a nit I can see folding but that's not the case here and we aren't very deep. I'm actually not a fan of jamming here because I'm afraid of getting too many folds.

Most of the time folding and getting owned readless.

Stuffing nut clubs that don't block anything and sets obv.

yeah im confused by the recommendation of folding.

we're blocking 2 outs to villain's posible best combo draw, MP is in the worst spot if you flat call since he must assume you're hand is pretty strong to flat w/ him to act behind. Plus i never respect the range of a double flat call anyway (MP flatting your bet and then flatting again after CO raises and you call) and if he's a "pro" im sure he's aware of this and is never slowplaying a monster on a board like this.

This is all reason why i feel fine flatting OOP. I also dont like raising/jamming because we only get to blow him off hands we are immediately ahead of for the most part.

OP: how do you think CO is assessing you & your range here?

Turn is always player dependent for me as far as whether i donk after calling the raise or checking to aggressor. its basically a PSB left eff on turn correct? i dont see much point in pot control line though. i honestly dont know what's best here vs standard unknown pro here but i think i like every turn card that isnt an an A or a club and a few other ones make me uneasy but obviously any k or q and most likely T are great for our range

Cbet flop smaller. 140 is better imo.

As played fold to the 900. Best case he has 4-5 of clubs. Which isn't a good best case.

Think there definitely is a difference because sometimes people don't squeeze IP w/ KK/QQ..

I was once told by someone who crushed as high as 130/260 USD live that the single most important skill to increase your winrate at the highest stakes is to be able to fold those small-medium sized pots when you often have the best hand but not the position or skill edge vs opponent.. and to never feel like you're getting owned.. guess this hand applies?

I think if he just sat and never played with me, he should assign me {overpairs; sets; flush draws/combo draws; TP's, sometimes 99/88/77/44/55; occasionally 2 broadway overs/gutshots/funky ****}, so by raising he should fold out the latter part of that range and make it difficult for overpairs to continue, & doesn't allow me to barrel my draws on brick turn.

In other words, I expect him to be good enough to understand that raising would make my action on the turn more transparent if I choose to flat his raise, regardless of what the actual turn card is.

I agree with this

IRL, I likely click call on the flop too often, but behind a keyboard I am in the fold camp...


Also, I agree that this is an interesting spot. Thanks for posting.

Yea thats exactly what I was getting at and its a funny coincidence I was also first enlightened to this by a veteran high stakes crusher. I think i got in like 120bbs on 56T with black AA and was explaining to him how this villain was super aggro and had all combo draws in his range etc. and he's like, "go plug combo draws into pokerstove and get back to me." I mean, it really is nuts.

*I realize this range isn't exhaustive just plugged in super quick to highlight equity disparities.

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

12,870 trials (Exhaustive)

board: T63

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
JdJc	24.93%	3,209	0
4c5c,8c9c,7c8c,AcQc,33,66,TT	75.07%	9,661	0

Now I plugged in a more common situation where bad lags still raise flush draws and this is a much better spot to own them. This is because its harder for them to have sets + less combo draws etc. I comfortably get single pairs in on boards like this and am pretty astonished to see like bare 7 high flush draws raise/calling it off vs a range from me which is great top pair / sets / nut flush draws.

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

7,920 trials (Exhaustive)

board: AK2

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
AdQh	37.82%	2,991	9
4c5c,8c9c,7c8c,JcTc,QcJc,22	62.18%	4,920	9

When i say fold and "get owned" I dont mean it in a negative connotation but sort of in jest at the fact that yes as you say we do have the "best hand" (a pair) a decent amount but we are avoiding very thin situations where villains range + positional advantage makes it the "worst hand" and not thin but actually -EV to play against vs. the total range.

I think cbet sizing is fine and any less is asking to get raised. I also agree with Miami that its a lot easier to fold behind a keyboard but my single best skill increase over the past 4 months has been folding (lol) and I've had pretty great results over the same period.

Only problem I have with folding here is if you fold this hand and only continue NFD/2pair+, then most regs will see you folding like 80%+ of your cbetting range when you get raised and you'll get run over. I'd much rather have regs think that I never fold overpair in this spot than think they can bluff me off overpairs on rather innocuous boards.

for those who want to fold, does it concern you that V can raise a bunch of stuff really profitably here if we are folding JJ and worse (given above)? im not making a lolbalance argument here (god forbid), im saying that if V expects that we will play a strategy close to what you are suggesting, then he should obviously choose to raise a bunch (in which case folding JJ would be bad). so, if you want to fold, do you disagree with what V expects us to do/his adjustment to that, or is there another reason?

just from a pop reads standpoint, seems like a young pro looking guy who possibly plays higher and vpips then raises flop in his first hand (seemed like first hand in the op, right?) is gonna show up here with ranges other than sets+combos. have peoples experiences been that this type always has it? i guess that would surprise me, but im interested to hear more thoughts on this

I understand what jvds is saying and at $10/$20 the player pool is such where players can exploit our tendency to fold but we cbet in a 5 way pot and ther is a caller so doubt he is doing this really light.

I think avarita posts are the nuts. I am folding here and not feeling exploited until I have enough history with villian.

ah, im an idiot and for some reason thought the other 2 players had folded before V acted (idk how that would even be possible). i agree having 2 players left behind who have likely checked their whole range changes things a bit. if the players in the blinds only continue with sets+really cool draws (considering there really arent 2p combos available), then my above point prob still stands but yeah this is more attenuated. i also agree that even if this is available to him in theory, it probably doesn't translate to practice nearly as much with those 2 players left to act (and also the caller).

i came back and re-read the hand and re-read my response and then read this and Avarita's post that spurred this response i gotta say this might really be the best course of action. Thinking about it now/reflecting back on some session - I've started noticing this advice applying more and more when im stuck in some of the tougher line ups in the games im playing vs most other times when the line up is stupid soft. And I'm really coming around to this conclusion above with this hand now.

The thing is, these spots can be a wash effectively vs your opponent the few hands you have position on them as they will be forced to effectively do the same thing unless they're on your immediate left in which case seat change button or simply value up almost all ranges for a little while - enough for villain to take notice, which to a competent opponent shouldnt take too long.

As far as exploitation i think the real plan of action is ultimately to lull villain into thinking his positional advantage can carry him more than it really will, effectively encouraging him to increase his range/Ag frequency which will allow us to make calls in future hands that we wouldnt have been able to earlier.

Definitely not promoting a "sit and wait for the nuts!" mindset of recfish but slowly and selectively starting to attack these pots & spots after creating a temporary image of letting them go. However if as mentioned it is both position and skill gap i think its easier to just avoid if we think we're simply going to get owned every time and focus our time and attention on the other weaker players.

Amazed that nobody felt it necessary to know stack sizes for MP and CO before being able to evaluate what course of action is best...

MP has $3K CO covers.

Are you not worried about how exploitable your checking range is if you're always c-betting all your overpairs and only checking to x/give up?

Assuming you're 3k deep, I'd shove sets, 78cc, 89cc, and A6cc. I'd call with nut clubs (thoughts?). I think a shove has >0 fold equity.

Not sure why everyone is so worried about being exploited by 'new player' and his large flop raise.

Seriously.

Fold this time --> don't fold next time --> profit?

It's good to check some strong hands, but JJ seems like it plays better as a bet since it's so vulnerable. I'd rather check AA or TT.

When did I say I would always cbet overpair and always x/f everything else? If anything most players, including myself, would cbet their high cards here so our checking range includes a lot of hands that WOULDN'T fold to a bet on the flop. Even if you think I implied that, how does folding when we get raised in this spot make our range less exploitable when we check the flop?

Maybe I should have been more clear, I should have said I didn't agree with the guy who said that we should always fold marginal spots like this OOP, not that folding this hand in a vacuum is bad. If we take his advice and just fold everytime we get raised on this board texture unless we hit 2pair+, then we wouldn't be calling next time. Your response to me actually goes against what Avaritia is advocating.

Also I have to side with the people who say that some regs, especially ones who play bigger, are more than willing to raise without the nuts/combo draws here. Maybe you're all so good that nobody ever ****s with you because they're scared of you, but IME some LAGs will definitely be lighter than sfd/sets here.