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10/20/40 Flop Decision point after a 4Bet Bluff Pre 10/20/40 Flop Decision point after a 4Bet Bluff Pre

03-27-2024 , 10:31 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Solving Live Poker
This is perfect example why we don't need to be jamming with As4s in position here. There's two things that are at play here and both are bad for jamming:

- The 4bet is too large. So, either we have isolated ourselves against the top end of V's range......or we have tipped our hand to a bluff.

- The SPR is too low to fold many hands with a jam that wouldn't fold to a smaller bet.


So, those things (among others) make the chance of getting called when we jam very high. That's not what you want with a hand that has as much equity as As4s in position.


It's very easy for our first instinct to be to "maximize fold equity" via jamming. We are all very guilty of this. But when you take the time to break things down, many times you'll find we really don't have that much fold equity. When that happens, we don't want to be jamming with hands that we can realize our equity checking behind.
Who cares if we get called at a high rate - our hand is too strong to do anything but bet/call large, and there's plenty of money in the pot as is. The fact that our opponent tank called KK here shows we will get folds at some frequency in spots like this even against the top parts of his range, and I don't think he has TT/33 ever here, with little JJ so at worst we see a lot of KK/QQ. We are repping AA, we flop plenty of equity - checking is a mistake.
10/20/40 Flop Decision point after a 4Bet Bluff Pre Quote
03-27-2024 , 11:29 AM
Checking or quarter pot on the flop are both fine. Honestly anything you do, jam even is fine. The only problem with jamming is that your range is very difficult to balance if you are jamming on the flop, and it seems like you play often enough with villain thst balance matters. Basically you are going to have mostly AA and KK that want to get value on the flop, AsKs could also be considered value maybe. KsQs too. Maybe low frequency QQ and very low frequency JJ and TT. Some AJs and KJs perhaps. You're only going to have so many spade draws here. AsKs pure, and partials of AsQs, AsTs, As5d, As4s, KsQs KsTs.

I am not sure you would be happy stacking off with AJ or KJ on the flop. If you jam QQ+ and flush draws, even villain's QQ can fold. You also have hands like AK and AQ that have a lot of equity but don't really want to jam, and some trashy stuff like A5s, A4s with or without a backdoor flush draw that could still profitably bet 25% on the flop.

The best strategy is probably going to be mixing small bets and checks with range, mostly betting though. You're probably fine range betting for 25% on this flop though as it will be difficult to balance checking and betting so both ranges are protected. Having jams on the flop means your value range is missing out on value as it can fold out some hands that would call a smaller bet (or even raise vs a smaller bet), you can't profitably bluff enough hands, and your checking range is going to be super weak.

Also, pre I think 140 open is big, I like 100 and 120 is fine also. The 4bet is a bit too big. Also since we are in position and not too incredibly deep after raising so large. 1,400-1,500 seems better. Also, you don't always need to 4bet A4s here from EP with a cold caller. Your thick value is AA and KK. In position facing the SB 3bet, AKs and AKo are not mandatory 4bets, but we will still have them plenty and they will naturally balance out our AA and KK. If we start adding in A5s, A4s, KQs pure, we quickly make our 4bet range very weak. Very weighted towards no pair on non A and K high boards.

Last edited by Mlark; 03-27-2024 at 11:44 AM.
10/20/40 Flop Decision point after a 4Bet Bluff Pre Quote
03-27-2024 , 03:17 PM
Agree with flop all-in.
10/20/40 Flop Decision point after a 4Bet Bluff Pre Quote
03-27-2024 , 03:37 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MrRR19
Going back to fold equity. Assuming we bet 1/4th pot there and Q rolls off on the turn, do we pick up additional fold equity? I have to think we do.
No not really - if you bet small you're encouraging him to call with a wider range which will allow him to see a cheap turn card and also get a better price to call your all in OTT. Your best fold equity is on the flop.
10/20/40 Flop Decision point after a 4Bet Bluff Pre Quote
03-27-2024 , 08:11 PM
This is from a private game. 10/20/40 seems really high stakes, as not played much now, except maybe at PARX or during tournaments. But this game may play more like 2/5.

I don't see the point about worry so much about balance, particularly since OP is a rec. A rec could certainly shove AA/KK for protection on the wet board. It is totally reasonable to shove AA/KK/AK, so villain should think you may have them.

Seems normal to tank with KK given hero is representing AA pretty strongly. Would not read from that that he folds all worse hands.

Maybe prejudiced by results, but villain 3! out of the BB, which is a bad position to do it from, against an ep raise. So maybe not a great 4! spot, although a good hand to bluff with.
10/20/40 Flop Decision point after a 4Bet Bluff Pre Quote
03-27-2024 , 11:59 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by pokerfan655
No not really - if you bet small you're encouraging him to call with a wider range which will allow him to see a cheap turn card and also get a better price to call your all in OTT. Your best fold equity is on the flop.
Yea I agree, deleted it about a minute after I wrote it 😂.
10/20/40 Flop Decision point after a 4Bet Bluff Pre Quote
03-28-2024 , 03:20 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by pokerfan655
No not really - if you bet small you're encouraging him to call with a wider range which will allow him to see a cheap turn card and also get a better price to call your all in OTT. Your best fold equity is on the flop.
Realistically, V is pot committed by a small bet. Thats the goal of the small bet, it forces him to commit to the hand, and you dont have to commit with your bluffs.
10/20/40 Flop Decision point after a 4Bet Bluff Pre Quote
03-28-2024 , 08:23 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tomark
Realistically, V is pot committed by a small bet. Thats the goal of the small bet, it forces him to commit to the hand, and you dont have to commit with your bluffs.
Yes but this is a specific scenario that should be played exploitatively by betting large/jamming.
10/20/40 Flop Decision point after a 4Bet Bluff Pre Quote
03-28-2024 , 09:42 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tomark
Realistically, V is pot committed by a small bet. Thats the goal of the small bet, it forces him to commit to the hand, and you dont have to commit with your bluffs.
I agree 1/4 pot would be better with pure bluffs and maybe with AA/KK. However, it is totally plausible that you would be pushing with AA/KK so he cannot call the push lightly even though you actually have a strong draw.

This is a very wet board, so it would not be a big mistake to shove AA/KK and AK, which should be the vast majority of your preflop value range.
10/20/40 Flop Decision point after a 4Bet Bluff Pre Quote
03-28-2024 , 11:22 AM
I'd check back flop or bet small, around 1/4 pot.

I'd expect V to check turn again at some frequency, and bet huge at some frequency. We can bet turn when he checks again, setting up a river jam, or fold when he bets huge and we haven't improved.

Not really sure what hands V has that are played this way pre and that we're expecting to fold out if we jam flop, other than maybe AKo, or QQ. Maybe V over-folds some hands he shouldn't at this SPR, but it seems more likely he's calling with his over-pairs, and even AK at some frequency.

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10/20/40 Flop Decision point after a 4Bet Bluff Pre Quote
03-28-2024 , 11:31 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by docvail
I'd check back flop or bet small, around 1/4 pot.

I'd expect V to check turn again at some frequency, and bet huge at some frequency. We can bet turn when he checks again, setting up a river jam, or fold when he bets huge and we haven't improved.

Not really sure what hands V has that are played this way pre and that we're expecting to fold out if we jam flop, other than maybe AKo, or QQ. Maybe V over-folds some hands he shouldn't at this SPR, but it seems more likely he's calling with his over-pairs, and even AK at some frequency.

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I agree he probably calls with QQ and AK. Is that and KK, maybe AA, his whole range to 3! and call this 4!?
10/20/40 Flop Decision point after a 4Bet Bluff Pre Quote
03-28-2024 , 03:16 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by deuceblocker
I agree he probably calls with QQ and AK. Is that and KK, maybe AA, his whole range to 3! and call this 4!?
I mean...V wasn't getting correct IO to set mine pre with 99 or worse. Maybe V is crazy loose and gets here with some other AX or KQs, so we might add some "how did you get here" combos to the list of hands he'll fold, but I generally assume V's range to 3B and call a 4B from the BB is going to be pretty strong, without too many hands that are going to fold at a high frequency.

I think his range is made up of big PP's that mostly aren't folding, AKo that was hoping to flop TPTK, and maybe some slivers of other AX or KQs that will probably fold.

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03-28-2024 , 04:50 PM
Villain could consider shoving AA / KK preflop. I know it usually isn't considered good to 5!. However, we are relatively shallow, so hero gets good odds to call a push. Yeah, he folds bluffs, but maybe better not to give them 3 or 4 cards to decide whether to continue as here.
10/20/40 Flop Decision point after a 4Bet Bluff Pre Quote
03-28-2024 , 07:37 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by deuceblocker
Villain could consider shoving AA / KK preflop. I know it usually isn't considered good to 5!. However, we are relatively shallow, so hero gets good odds to call a push. Yeah, he folds bluffs, but maybe better not to give them 3 or 4 cards to decide whether to continue as here.
I don't hate a flop jam, but I feel like a small bet on flop and a jam on turn looks stronger than a flop jam.

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03-28-2024 , 08:27 PM
This is a jam. You have so many outs and add to that you have fold equity.

Your bankroll to play this game is roughly $1m, so if you lose, it's not like it should matter much to you. Also, given how much you're playing for, paying for professional coaching is better than asking 2+2.
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