Parx 10/10 NL. I have probably over 5k, many of the villains have close to this or cover.

UTG+1 opens to 30, 5 calls to me in the bb, i call with 75dd.

Pot 210

Flop 8s 9d 6s

SB checks, I bet 160, original raiser calls, MP calls, button calls, sb calls.

Pot 1010

Turn Jc

SB checks, I bet 550 (probably too small?), Original raiser calls, MP folds, button calls, sb ships for 3550 total (I have ~5k left at this point, both villains in the hand have 4-5k).

OR and button never have us beat here from prior history/their line in this pot. Reads on sb is he is one of your typical live fishy type players, probably around the age of 45. Talking to me quite a bit about his hands. He shoved virtually instantly as well (within 5 secs). We played a previous hand where i opened utg, got 3 callers including him in the bb. Flop came 743dd, he led 120 from the bb, i raised to 420, he called. Turn was Kd he checked, i checked. River was 3d and he led 500 and I raised to 1830. He tanked a while and folded J6dd face up. I didn't show him but I claimed to have a boat (which I did). I saw him bet/call in some pretty obvious bet/fold spots as well, and he was relatively stubborn. He also has shown the tendency to bluff in some pretty big pots, but nothing like this in the past (this is obviously the first time I've played a weird multi way pot in this spot past the flop).

Our play?

Would he flat 7-10 for the flopped straight? and then check the turn with all those callers. Seems unlikely, the only hand i'd be worried about would be the one combo of Q-10 spades. In my expierence, he can show up with weird combo draws 10-9,10-J spades, all two pair combos and most sets as well as chops. Ship the rest and feel pretty good about it.


Big Pot is right, he would have all combos of q-10, although it is pretty bad.

He would be calling all Q10 here, not just spades. Have you ever played a hand of live poker before? Most older ppl do not just rip in a draw, especially with 350+ bigs. And all 2 pair combos you think he's shoving? Doubt he's shipping any 2 pair.

Edit: just read the last of your post, has to be a troll.

You're correct in that he has all combos of q-10, but the fact that he called an utg raise with j6 of diamonds leads me to believe that his range is much wider than expected. Could we also discount q-10 a little, as he may choose to donk out with a made hand, he did this as he did this with a combo draw otf in the previous hand that was also in a multi-way pot.As played I still think he check raises the flop with 10-7 and I have seen several older people do this with sets as the board gets scarier.

I like a fold.

Pretty interesting hand. I think its probably a close fold. You have 43% vs sets j9 and straights, but his range is weighted toward QT and J9, against which you have 33% equity, you require about 33% to call.

The problem with putting him on flop slowplays is that as soon as you do that you ahve to add 16 more combos of straights you lose to (T7) so it doesn't actually help you much to put sets in his range.

I can't fault calling or folding here tbh, it seems super close to me.

I would fold and feel ok about it. What can he really have that we beat? J9ss or a set. He would raise flop with either no?

pokerstove

Without more reads, I fold.

It sounds like you call T7 though?

Interesting, since when you donk, you rarely have QT, so its just bombs away on your range(as well as the ranges of the callers).

Alright, so bear with me because i'm at work and without pokerstove but....

pot is 1010+550(3)=2660, he shoves for 3000 more, which makes the pot 5660, we have to call 3000 to win 8660 (total)....which gives us 2.8 to 1 on our money.
If his range is all Q10,10-7 suited, J9 suited,88 and 99 it looks like we are in the range of a 76.4-23.6 dog which is 3.23 to 1. It doesnt take many additional random spew or flush/str8 draw combos to make this a call. I think this, along with read that Villan is stubborn and likes to play weird suited combos oop make this a call.

The issue with pokerstove -- or at least the way most people (mis)use it -- is that each of the hands isn't weighted.

For example, perhaps 88 is in villain's range. However, maybe he only plays it like this 20% of the time under this specific set of conditions.

The problem here is that he raised all in for 3500 dollars in a 10/10 game. Regardless of what on paper it would make sense for him to do this with here (i.e. any hand he thinks is good given the action should push for value/protection), he's a live player and is pretty likely to just call for 600 with most non-straights, IMO. Recreational live players just have no sense of the common sense mathematics of poker and how the money in the pot affects the value and strength of hands, they feel like they need to have a really good hand to push all in for a high absolute value of money.

So therefore I think his range is like 3x (or more) weighted toward QT, as in I think his while his 16 QT combos are 100% likely to play in this way, his 12 set combos are more like 33% likely to play this way or perhaps even less.

Good post Renton, I was using Poker-Cruncher on my phone which doesn't let me weigh hands. I know that most recreational live players are not thinking from anything deeper than a level one perspective, but if we are not calling here I think we should fold hand like this 100 percent pre. Also the small lead ott, sets up a perfect re-ship from villan to protect all hands.

The easiest way to introduce weighting in PokerCruncher is by choosing random suit combos. For example, only include 8d8c as a way to push the likelihood of 88 downward.

And folding 75dd pre sitting 5k deep at that game is just leaving money on the table. In fact, the reason we CAN play that hand profitably is when we get good at making marginal decisions with it.

EDIT: When was this hand?

The night before I posted. What relevance does that have?
I mean when I led the flop I didn't expect it to be five way on the turn and I didn't expect two to call my bet on the turn and then get a jam. I'm primarily a tournament player and these situations don't pop up as frequently so I'm not really sure as to any realistic ranges I can give to everyone.

I think renton has hit it pretty well. When someone wants to stick in 3500 in a 5/10 game, you have to give a strong weight to the nuts much more than to a combo draw. If QT was a gutshot, then it could be discounted, but as a double gutter, the SB almost never folds the flop with it.

One other relevant comment I should have posted is that after the j6 hand he told me he should have just open shoved the turn so a scary card wouldn't have come.

Wanted to see if I was at the table. I was not.

As others have said, 3500 is a billion in 10 dollar bb games. Fold.

Does this mean he would likely open shove q-10 ott, or 10-7 otf, I think we can safely throw out 10-7 as he would have at least re-raised otf. I'm leaning more towards set or weird combo draw.

Ask him if he wants to run it twice and try to see if he feels comfortable.

p.s.
Yes I agree 3500 might as well be a million to a 5-10 rec player, but I think its at least a lot closer than the rest of the thread. Also i can be stationy so take what I say with a grain of salt.

This isn't legal at parx and I have two guys behind me. I'm not an angle shooter.

I was kidding.

id fold and feel fine about it