Hero is a young looking 20's guy that bought in for $1000 and has won a few pots. This is only my third time playing 10/10, but the few regs at the table probably recognize me from 2/5. Rest of the table are rec looking players and the game is kind of soft.

Villain is a 40's MAWG that normally plays 2/5 but busted out of the tournament and is playing 10/10 because the list was shorter. He got rivered twice, rebought, changed seats and doubled up from $1250 to $2500.

OTTH,

Villain (MP, $2500) opens to $40
Hero (SB, $2500) calls $40 with 77
BB folds

Flop ($90): A93

Hero checks
Villain checks

I think villain's range is primarily PP's between KK-TT. I think checking back AK/AQ would be a sneaky and unconventional play to induce the exact action I am thinking of taking, but it certainly cannot be ruled out.

Turn ($90): 9

Hero bets $60
Villain calls $60 after 5-10 seconds

River ($210): 9

Hero?

I know I am obviously behind right now, so it's either check and likely see a free showdown or bet $150-175 to knock villain off his overpair to my 77's.

He ain't folding TT+ unless you bet something absurdly big in relation to the pot. I doubt 150$ does the job.

I wouldn't even bet river personally. People don't like to fold full houses. Especially when they can convince themselves that you could have a flush draw or wouldn't check back the flop with an Ace.

Sorry I see ur oop so the checking an ace point isn't really valid. But it's still a tough sell.

All hail Zeebo. You are not getting better to fold from a player who just busted out of a tournament. The whole point of playing against tourney players is to take advantage of their tilt by inducing bad calls. I don't see a reason to bluff them.

check call turn

check fold river as played

Turn bet is really bad, sorry.

c/c (c/f is superior against a better player), c/f river.

So what would you do with AJs/ATs that didn't 3! OOP? Are you not leading the turn?

Thought it was clear I was turning my hand into a bluff vs. his KK-TT range.

Wouldn't you have better hands to bluff with on that turn? Kxdd, Qxdd, Jxdd? Your eq when called is horrendous with 77. Also, I think there is a good portion of his Ax range (think small suited Aces) that he pot controls on the flop on such a dry board. That depends on specific player though but something to keep in mind.

If villain is tilted/feeling stationy, I think this is a pretty std give up. If I thought there was no chance that villain checked an ace, then I guess you could do something crazy like 2x pot if you just have to win this one, but it has to work 67% to break even obv. Giving up is just so simple and easy. It can't possibly be a big mistake, and it's probably best.

Yes and when the turn pairs vs. almost any player, you will have a hard time to get him to fold anything. Also his range is wide open, it contains some 9x, Ax, those KK-TT and missed hands.

I rather not turn 77 into a bluff but something that has a better equity when called, KQ, QJ etc. It also actually has some sd-value here so I would rather bluff lower pairs. Balance-wise I think you might actually bluff this turn way too much if you bluff with 77.

Basically I like betting anything else here more than this hand, maybe TT is slightly worse.

Depending on opponent I'm actually not leading all my AT/AJ here. Against the described villain, I'm not worrying too much about balance and obv. betting them.

Okay I think I see why KQ is a better bluff than 77 because it often gives us 3-6 outs to improve vs. villain's made hand range rather than just two.

Does that make 77 a candidate for checking until villain decides to bet and then folding? How do we reconcile for the times that villain has hands like KQ, KJ, QJ and bluffs us off the best hand on the turn after we check/check? Or is that just the nature of OOP poker?

Yes, playing it here isn't easy. You sometimes do get bluffed out of the best hand, but I think it still should be solidly in your c/decide range without very good reads and then betting it is really exploitative.

Check it down.

Preflop is kinda close.

Close to what? With these stack sizes and the general description of the villain (limited I know, but enough to make a pretty good educated guess on his skill level) I'm never folding pre here.

Curious on your thoughts on why you would fold (or 3bet??!) here.

Calling 4x opens from the small blind with hands with <50% equity is pretty hard to do profitably against non idiots.

I believe intent is primarily to set mine. 250bb deep we should be fine.

I have never and would never fold preflop the 77 in this spot against a tourney donk, or anyone with a stack greater than 100 bigs for that matter.

Check call turn
Check assess river

You can rep a wider range of hands by the river when you check the turn in this kind of spot sometimes, perhaps not necessarily with this specific run out though.