I'm still unsure with what your preflop motives are with a raise. Again, it wouldn't surprise me in the least if the UTG was trapping given he limped into a blind bet. It wouldn't surprise me to see the BTN calling any size raise from you given his mental stability. It wouldn't surprise me to see the SB shove his $400 in to gamble given his shortstack, overlay with a probable multi way pot, and his semi tiltness with the ball game.
Given all these factors, raising it up here just doesn't seem like the right play, but again maybe I'm missing something.
As for taking the flop decision, if you are going to bet, than I like your sizing. You can't go half assed on this bet considering your play up to this point. You have to gamble he won't call with a pair (obviously you're going broke if he has an A) and a big bet is the only way to possibly succeed in this.
But now looking back on it I hope you see, you took a huge gamble for possibly no payoff and more likely a big payout. I mean you risked $1400 on the flop just to fold out 2 random cards. Once he does fold, you win nothing but the right to see a showdown with no guarantee of being ahead or even in good shape. This is just kamikaze poker and it stems from your preflop decision which I don't think you understood the ramifications of in real time. Now's a great time to explore it...
When I said that people play side pots the wrong way, it seems evident that I was referring to you I guess. If you check you seem convinced the BTN will blow you off your hand. Well if he doesn't have a pair then why would he? He would just be doing the same kamikaze play you made. A big bet with no upside and a ton of downside. He would still have to make a better hand than the SB to reap any benefits of his incurred risk.
If you do the math on this play and forget completely about the metagame that is going on (which in this tilty case usually means less FE, not more), you are risking $1400 to
possibly win $1360 which means your flop bet has to work half the time for you to have a chance at winning the main pot. Then KJd is a ~62% against a random hand from the outset but the SB, tho tilting and shortstacked and not really into the poker game doesn't have that 'random' hand now. He consciously made the initial call of the $80 raise and then shoved in when it got back to him. I would gather that we can probably rule out the bottom 30% of hands or so (and I'm being generous as it should probably be more like the bottom 50% given that he is into the ballgame and will only play better than average hands), so now KJd win % against the top half of his range is probably more like 55% or so (sorry I don't have pokerstove here) and if he started out with an A you were a ~43% dog from the get go and drawing close to dead after the flop.
Also, hilarious that you didn't realize you were watching a no hitter. True degenerates
Last edited by jlocdog; 07-14-2009 at 12:34 PM.