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10-10-20 live - flop decision 10-10-20 live - flop decision

07-13-2009 , 03:52 PM
I've not posted a hand in several years, so please excuse any confusion in the presentation.

Semi-private game, currently 8 players. Usual buy-in's range from $2k to $5k, 10-10 blinds with optional (but customary) $20 straddle. It's about 6 hours into the game.

Hero has been somewhat card dead but has picked up a few pots here and there and stack is currently about $3k. Image is probably mostly TAG, though he's known to play LAG on occasion. Hero posts the $20 straddle.

V1 on button has lost a couple of sizable pots recently and is down to $1800 and change. He's normally a good LAG, particularly in position, and plays tough after the flop. He may be steaming a bit, and blind raises to $80 on the button. UTG+1 limps for the $20 with a stack of aroun $3k (no doubt planning to either call the blind raise when it comes back around or maybe re-raise). He does like to squeeze in limped pots. It's folded to V1's blind raise on the button. SB ($5k stack) calls the blind raise. He is playing mostly TAG, and has won every serious pot he played so far this night. BB ($400 stack) also calls the $80 He's definitely LAG in position, but he'll gamble for an $80 raise with ATC from any position. He's taken big hits a couple of hands in a row (and has not yet reloaded), and is really paying more attention to a baseball game (with a big bet riding on it) than the poker game.

Hero finds KD JD and makes it $350 to go from the straddle. UTG+1 folds, V1 on button thinks for a couple of minutes and calls $270 more (perceived range is moderate to big ace, small to medium pair, a couple of paint cards, suited connectors or one-gap). He would almost certainly reraise with a big pair, and probably with AK. SB folds. BB puts his last $400 in as an all-in under-raise (which may mean a real hand but more likely he's just decided to gamble) and both hero and V1 call the extra $50. Pot is $1360. BB is all-in, so remaining stacks are $2700 for hero, $1400 or so for V1 on button.

Flop is Ad 9c 4h. Action is on hero - what would you do?
10-10-20 live - flop decision Quote
07-13-2009 , 04:09 PM
There's no way you should be betting into a dry side pot here. Unless you're trying some insane OOP float, the move is check/fold.

Also, you need to make your re-raise at least 400 on top, not 270 more, unless you want to get called in multiple spots like you did here.
10-10-20 live - flop decision Quote
07-13-2009 , 04:13 PM
Bet $50 and say , 'Bing Blang Bloaw'. Then you stare at him straight. If he is a good LAG, he would just call because does not want to get chk raise in da house.
10-10-20 live - flop decision Quote
07-13-2009 , 04:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by novel20
Bet $50 and say , 'Bing Blang Bloaw'. Then you stare at him straight. If he is a good LAG, he would just call because does not want to get chk raise in da house.
this.
10-10-20 live - flop decision Quote
07-13-2009 , 04:47 PM
I agree the preflop raise was undersized, though in this particular game an extra $100 might not influence anyone.

I also understand the argument for not betting into a dry side pot, but I had no intention of giving up on the pot with a check fold, particularly since (at least in my mind) V1 would be assuming that a big ace should be prominent in my range. And BB did not have to have anything.

I'm not sure a small "teaser or F-Y" bet would do much given the villain's state of mind. He'd surely call with any piece or pair. But an interesting thought.
10-10-20 live - flop decision Quote
07-13-2009 , 04:57 PM
i usually check/fold here and it always makes me feel like a nit
10-10-20 live - flop decision Quote
07-13-2009 , 06:15 PM
Preflop I would probably just call the $60 given information offered. You are rarely if ever folding out the BTN (and regardless of his tilt he still will have position on you and can make your life difficult given his ATCs and LAG tendencies) and the UTGs open limp can be a trap as well hoping for this exact scenario to pan out so he can repop the field and win a nice pot for himself.

Also, that raise isn't big enough to fold out the field and stacks are not very deep so you will often find yourself playing for stacks in a ton of marginal situations since this bet is often just a sweetener in situations like this.

With the likelyhood of the shorty BB shoving his stack in you also create a side pot which means you will often have to actually make a hand instead of just relying on some muscle to get the job done.

As played, the BB does in fact shove (who would have thought that) and you are stuck with the 2nd no-nut and some back door nut draws. I would check since the tilty BTN is never folding an Ace here and rarely even a pair at this point. He may however check behind as a dry side pot often makes players more timid. Too often they approach these situations with a tournament frame of mind and make mistakes because of this.

A free card would be great because the turn will tell you if you are done with the hand or ready to gamble...

As an aside- I do not agree with this: "V1 on button thinks for a couple of minutes and calls $270 more (perceived range is moderate to big ace, small to medium pair, a couple of paint cards, suited connectors or one-gap)." I think you underestimate his actual range here if he is truly steamy, making blind bets, having the BTN, and sensing a squeeze by you given his actions...
10-10-20 live - flop decision Quote
07-14-2009 , 11:45 AM
Jloc is right in saying the button's calling range was probably wider than I suggested in OP. No doubt a variety of OS connectors, one gappers, etc. Maybe most any 2 suited. I will say I've never seen this guy put much money in with pure junk hands no matter how tilted.

As noted earlier, I agree the preflop raise should have been bigger. And actually I had intended to make it a little bigger (350 on top instead of all day) but only cut off and pushed out 350 worth of $10 chips).

And as also noted, this BB's push did not necessarily indicate any strength at all (which I think is important in thinking about the "dry pot" status).

One factor I forgot to mention in my original post - with this particular lineup I tend to often get credit for a real hand (or a big draw) when I make a big bet. And no draws on this board.

The idea of taking a free card (if offered) has merit. But I decided this opponent in this frame of mind might not check back any pair, and I'd be put to the test with a hand that could not stand any pressure. And I figured that if he did make any sort of bet he'd be committing so a bluff check raise would be futile. And what are we doing if he does check back on the flop - hoping to hit on the turn? Planning to bet any turn? Checking again if we miss (which really would be giving up)?

The two courses of action I seriously considered were to check, hoping for a check back and then bet any turn, or make a big bet on the flop.

My actual play was to look inquiringly at button's stack, and after short consideration I bet $1400. I basically decided to gamble that he did not have an ace (which I'm certain he'd have called) or flop a set. Button tanked for a couple of minutes and finally folded; I could see he wanted to call so I imagine he had a little something at least (pocket pair or a small piece of the board).

Turn was a 6 or 7 and river was a jack. BB flipped over J-10 off-suit.

No doubt it was spewy, and I just got lucky.

Maybe this hand really is not that relevant for a post in this forum since my decisions revolved heavily around my view of the players (who I know well) and my perception of how they view me and would react to my actions.

But one question for the group - if I do post a hand for discussion is it more productive to describe the full course of play and ask for comments or is it better to structure the post kind of like I did here, pausing at a big decsion point?

Incidentally, the baseball game that BB was watching was a Giants/Padres game. BB was fading a 10k bet on total runs with a line of 8, and when the game came on it was already 7-0 Giants. We are all kind of halfway paying attention since BB was was really moaning and groaning with each hit and long fly ball. The score held and we all congratulated our colleague. Not one of us knew that the Giants pitcher had pitched a no-hitter.
10-10-20 live - flop decision Quote
07-14-2009 , 12:22 PM
I'm still unsure with what your preflop motives are with a raise. Again, it wouldn't surprise me in the least if the UTG was trapping given he limped into a blind bet. It wouldn't surprise me to see the BTN calling any size raise from you given his mental stability. It wouldn't surprise me to see the SB shove his $400 in to gamble given his shortstack, overlay with a probable multi way pot, and his semi tiltness with the ball game.

Given all these factors, raising it up here just doesn't seem like the right play, but again maybe I'm missing something.

As for taking the flop decision, if you are going to bet, than I like your sizing. You can't go half assed on this bet considering your play up to this point. You have to gamble he won't call with a pair (obviously you're going broke if he has an A) and a big bet is the only way to possibly succeed in this.

But now looking back on it I hope you see, you took a huge gamble for possibly no payoff and more likely a big payout. I mean you risked $1400 on the flop just to fold out 2 random cards. Once he does fold, you win nothing but the right to see a showdown with no guarantee of being ahead or even in good shape. This is just kamikaze poker and it stems from your preflop decision which I don't think you understood the ramifications of in real time. Now's a great time to explore it...

When I said that people play side pots the wrong way, it seems evident that I was referring to you I guess. If you check you seem convinced the BTN will blow you off your hand. Well if he doesn't have a pair then why would he? He would just be doing the same kamikaze play you made. A big bet with no upside and a ton of downside. He would still have to make a better hand than the SB to reap any benefits of his incurred risk.

If you do the math on this play and forget completely about the metagame that is going on (which in this tilty case usually means less FE, not more), you are risking $1400 to possibly win $1360 which means your flop bet has to work half the time for you to have a chance at winning the main pot. Then KJd is a ~62% against a random hand from the outset but the SB, tho tilting and shortstacked and not really into the poker game doesn't have that 'random' hand now. He consciously made the initial call of the $80 raise and then shoved in when it got back to him. I would gather that we can probably rule out the bottom 30% of hands or so (and I'm being generous as it should probably be more like the bottom 50% given that he is into the ballgame and will only play better than average hands), so now KJd win % against the top half of his range is probably more like 55% or so (sorry I don't have pokerstove here) and if he started out with an A you were a ~43% dog from the get go and drawing close to dead after the flop.

Also, hilarious that you didn't realize you were watching a no hitter. True degenerates

Last edited by jlocdog; 07-14-2009 at 12:34 PM.
10-10-20 live - flop decision Quote
07-14-2009 , 03:30 PM
I do see the kamikaze aspect of this hand - one reason I posted it I suppose, since I felt like I had gotten pretty lucky to survive unscathed.

Once I did make that preflop raise, which agreed was questionable both in concept and size, I had to decide whether to essentially try to check it down with the button and hope for the best or take agressive action. Certainly BB could have an ace, in which case the main pot is essentially gone, and then it's not worth screwing around for a side pot, but barring a random ace in BB I felt like I was in fair shape against his range. So then the question seemed to be should I go ahead and gamble that button did not have an ace or a set, because I did not think he'd call off the rest of his stack with an underpair that he had not reraised with.

One possibly beneficial side effect - I had to show the hand. Probably no harm in demonstrating some maniacal behavior occasionally to adjust the image a bit.

And yes that is a group of real degenerates :-).
10-10-20 live - flop decision Quote

      
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