Playing $10/10/20 at parx. V interesting river spot. Here is action:

Everyone is about $8k - $10k deep. Playing 7-8 handed

Preflop:
V1 (tight nit pro) Raise to $50 MP, V2 (spewey, limpy, weird reg) calls next to act , Hero (competent rec) makes it $240 from SB w J♠️J ♦️. Both V1&V2 call.

Flop ($750):
9 ♠️ 9 ❤️ 7 ♠️

I bet $330, V1 folds, V2 calls.

Turn ($1,410):
9 ♠️ 9 ❤️ 7 ♠️ 3 ❤️

I bet $630 he tank calls…. Makes a comment about getting there “one time”. Seemed like a genuine tank, v weird comment.

River ($2,670):
9 ♠️ 9 ❤️ 7 ♠️ 3 ❤️ A ♦️

I check he bets $2,200 after a bit of thinking …..

More info on villain: ~50 year old v friendly guy, clearly a reg knew everyone in the game. Has played their high stakes $50/$100 game. Plays a ton of hands, loves to limp pre flop. Doesn’t bluff that often from what I’ve seen over 8 hours but bluffed a few times.

We both had like $3k-$4k behind our stacks after all betting was done in this hand.

Wdyd?

Seems like he should have a lot of A ♠️ x ♠️ hands . A ♥️ 7 ♥️ . From what he said. Which means he probably doesn’t.

But usually from spewy regs “one time “ means V has 9 ☘️ 9 ♦️ or any made hand. At 1/3 vs 90% of players that is what it means.

Maybe he knows that is a common thing spewy regs say when they donÂ’t need help and wants you to think he is strong when he has nothing or a weird hand like 6 ♦️ 8 ♦️

I would attempt to talk to him since he was talking on the turn. Ask him if his one time wish was granted.

At 1/3 I would fold because of the almost certain tell coupled with most of the draws that make sense now beating your hand. At this level players are a lot more complex. Or maybe simpler and he has 8 ♦️ 8 ♠️ and knew on the turn he probably really needed help and then turned his hand into a bluff on the ace he can represent with the flush draws he asked for to come in.

We have a bluff catcher so I would have to consider how he's bluffed in previous hands such as did he make big river bets after someone showed weakness, did he ever bluff in a 3bet pot (which is huge here since most players play more straight up) but in general to a guy who bluffs only a few times per session I'm not gonna call just because he plays higher stakes.

If he thinks you missed the flop with AK, what does he think you have now otr then? It looks like he's tryna get paid off on 9x or A9 perhaps and there are plenty of 9's in a stations pre flop range usually.

So he is the same as every random 1/3 player who says “i need one card”. Made hands almost always, unless you see them do it a lot and are extreme action players

Right... I think I thought too hard about this one. However, I am confident he'd never bet this large with just an ace, and like I mentioned, even a small 9 I doubt he'd bet that much. So imo the bet was HYPER polarizing, and a bunch of draws did miss. Still probably should've folded

I’m having a hard time not being swayed by the results but in my experience speeches = the nuts pretty much always.

I probably fold the river and expect to be shown a lot of missed draws.

His almost PSB sizing OTR I think discounts a naked A from his range, I would expect more of a 1200-1500 size so I would expect a more polarized range. Because of that, he has far more combos of missed draws I probably call here too (minus the speech, of course).

agree, perhaps i didn't put enough weighting in the speech play.

This deep and with dead money in there I’m going 300-350 pre.

Flop and turn 2/3 pot would be more appropriate.

River looks like a clear check/fold when we consider the speech and the fact that he can certainly take a big size with AXss trying to make it look like a bluff vs a capped range. I would

I think based on odds pre flop you should be sizing up. Opponent 1 has good odds (he needs 33% equity) to call if he doesn't think opponent 2 will re raise. Opponent 2 is getting even better odds, he's got position, and closing action. On top of this opponent 2 is probably aware enough to know that if he has an A you probably don't. In situations where an oop opponent check/calls flop, check/calls turn and then leads river, in those situations they almost always have a hand that beats TP or an over pair. I know this situation is different but your description of him is that he limps a lot and calls pre flop a lot to play hands. I would think he is on the passive side meaning his calling range should be strong. I think his comment was genuine too, he was afraid of the flush draw. AP it seems like a check/fold. I know you mentioned he's bluffed a few times but you should closely watch those hands and the board texture I can almost guarantee you'll find a key difference between his bluffs and this hand.

I think generally a weak-hand statement, when said by a player making or calling a significant bet, strengthens that player’s range. But he could be running a reverse tell on you also...tough spot..

If both players are at least 8k deep (400bb+) I would sqz somewhere around 450-500. To compensate for such a large sizing I would mix in some flats with JJ here preflop. When we're this deep and you sqz 240 vs 50 and a call both players can flat basically their entire range in position. Flop I would X my entire range either to xc or xr based on sizing and reads on my opponents. Playing this deep is very difficult and if you're at a table with very good opponents they can make your life miserable. We have very little nuts in range and our opponents have probably all of them. If the flop X thru we can comfortably value bet the turn and/or river. AP turn is way too small and again V can just flat everything and make our life hell on scary rivers. If you're going to bet here I suggest a size around 2k but again I don't really feel great about doing this with JJ at this stack depth. AP for the river you can either block bet or X. You have a decent combo to xcall bc you block AJhh but some players just don't have the stones to make a 2k bluff otr in position. Against this player type (limping/passive reg making speech and tanking forever) I would just xfold.