Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek
I probably lean towards a 3bet preflop. The pros is that we'll have position against a loose/spewy guy and a 3bet should also get this HU (whereas a flat will often see us in a bloated multiway pot with a TP hand, something we'd rather avoid). Plus we might just pick up all the dead money with A high preflop / flop cbet. Also, it's unclear how big of a stack the Villain has; the shorter he is, the cooler we are with 3betting; the deeper he is, the cooler we are with flatting (imo).
I'm assuming the flop/turn/river are rainbow suits (i.e. no flush draw). I would also just enter in calldown mode like you did, which I think is the best method against a guy who can spew.
It's unclear how much Villain has left on the river. But at this point I'd probably shove as we only have a little over a ~PSB and most likely have the best hand unless he took a weird river line with a monster (risking a check thru). It's possible he bet the flop/turn as bluffs with Ax and then on the river realized he no longer needs to bluff anymore. Let him make the tough decision as to whether we are bluffing, weak, etc.
ETA: With just a little over a ~PSB left, I don't think we should even be bet/folding weakish TP hands the majority of the time, let alone top two on a dry board. So I hate any plan that involves folding the river. I have an inkling your thinking regarding this hand might end up being a little results oriented after the fact, but I could be wrong...
GcluelessNLnoobG
Honestly, that line of thought entered my head though on the river that if he is check raising such a dry board, there is almost no bluffs in his range, and there is certainly VERY FEW value hands that I beat. He has 9's full a ton, and random A5 that filled up when he's doing it for value, and he's got like QJ? and random K's that he turns into bluffs when he's bluffing.
I think the portion of that range when he check raises me is going to be weighted towards me losing money in the long run getting it in vs this guy in this spot.
Quote:
Originally Posted by zugzwangg
I am wondering what bets 75 onto a 93$ pot and calls a river v-bet? That sizing makes him polarized to 5x, air, but possibly air that improved to an A on the river.
I actually honestly don't think a competent villain is calling with a bare A on the river because he is not expecting us to turn our KQ into a bluff or something.
check-back is good?
Quote:
Originally Posted by fizzypants
GG, given that his most likely holding is Kx, don't you think a shove is never calling whereas a 1/3 or 1/4 PSB might look you up? Infact, he might even fold Ax to a shove by putting you on 5x which is very well in your BTN calling range.
This also went through my head. The other thing is that this guy has almost never really two barreled complete air. He almost ALWAYS has a pair of SOME sort or a really strong draw, and the lack of a flush draw on the board, kind of also concerned me.
I also think my hand has more 5's than his, which is even more reason if he check raises me on the river, no matter the amount I bet, I always almost lose.
Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek
I don't think Ax is unreasonable given this guy can bluff the first two streets and perhaps chicken out with a showdownable hand on the river, so I go for max value against that.
Plus, even if Kx looks us up 50% of the time to a 1/4 PSB, they'd simply have to look us up ~12% of the time for a PSB for the same profit, and I think they do much more than that over time.
But overall I'm of the opinion that if we have ~PSB left then the only bet size to ever make at the river is a shove, but that's me.
GshoveyG
I think he very rarely has like AQ and was trying to barrel me off a 9. Even that hand though is going to probably fold if I just jam the whole stack. 1/3 is pretty nitty, and AQ is one of his least likely holdings, imo here.
He much more often has Kx, and he's not calling off with that.
So then we arrive once again at, if we shove, what does he call with? What does he jam with? What does he fold that is better than us?
He calls with AQ. He calls with AJ, he calls with KX 1/100 times when he's on tilt, and shoves 9's full, any 5.
He folds any King probably, and folds pairs QQ-1010 and below.
It almost smells more and more like a check back to me, the more I think about it, and especially considering I always get the information.