HERO is UTG $430
Villain is UTG+1 and covers

No history though he may have seen me fold AQo vs SB 3bet after opening to 12 UTG 3-4 orbits prior.

Hero has TAG image

Villain is also TAG and playing 1-3 waiting for 3-5

OTTH
Blinds are 1-1-3 with a $1 on the button. Game had been playing loose passive with minimal 3betting preflop.

Hero opens UTG to $12

Villain calls UTG+1

Loose passive old guy calls in CO

Flop Kc5s2s

Hero cbets $20 into $30 after $6 rake

Villain raises to $50

CO folds and hero calls

Any other choice at this inflection point?

I put villain on a range of all Axss, 55, 22 maybe KQs/KQo KJss. Threw in QJss, JTss and T9ss though I do not believe those are calls 100% of the time from this opponent.

Turn is the Qh

Hero checks

Villain bets $100 into $130

Hero???

Feel like my options are Jam or Fold. Or call and call all non spade rivers?

Vs assigned range on turn my equity is 42%

Can someone help me with the math on this? Looks to me like I am calling $100 to win $230 which means I need 43% so basically even $$$ at this point. And non spade rivers make it an easy call equity wise.

TIA for your feedback.

Your math is incorrect. You are getting 2.3 to 1 on a call. That means you need to have 30% equity. 1/(2.3+1) = 1/3.3 = 30%


Having said that, I think villain is much more weighted to spades and you have the best hand here more often than you think, especially if he's actually TAG as you described. He shouldn't have any 2 pair combos on the flop, and should have very few set combos too. KK 3 bets (and is only 1 combo left), 55 and 22 shouldn't be calling an UTG raise from +1. I wouldn't want to call the flop and see the turn checked through allowing him to realize his equity with the flush. I think it's lots of Kx of spades here.

What are your two starting suits? Do you have any spades?

Is this a good seat? Sitting directly OOP non-short to a guy who plays in bigger games?

I limp in but that's my style.

SPR is a biggish ~12, so I definitely don't want to play for stacks with one pear. Although the board is somewhat drawy, I would often lean to a check OOP. I'm not looking to play a big pot and I'd rather not be put in a stoopid spot of facing a raise (unless I feel very comfortable laying down my hand, of which I might not against this guy).

This is kinda the stoopid spot I was hoping to avoid postflop. Facing the flop raise means the pot is going to get very big very fast and stacks will be in play by the river, something I don't want. Kinda hate the spot we're in now. What's our plan? Just call down for non-trivial stacks if the draws bust?

Turn card sucks as now KQ gets there (one of the main hands that we were beating that could play preflop/flop this way). Life isn't going to get any easier on the river (where we'll only have a 3/4 PSB left), so I probably bail now.

GcluelessNLnoobG

AdKd

Sorry about that.