1/3nl 250 eff stacks

hero- mid 20s white guy. sat down in cutoff so at table leas than an orbit. no sunglasses no headphones

villian- early 30s white guy. looks like casual rec. player. limped in 2 hands but folded to flop and turn bets

villian utg+2 open limps co limps btn limps sb completes i check with 44

flop kq4 rainbow i bet 10 villian calls all others fold.

turn 9. kq49 still rainbow i bet 25 villian raises to 75 hero?

Call, hope to bink boat OTR. Still prob calling a river bet, because though he often has TJ, he could also have K9 or Q9.

From my experience at $1/3, (or maybe I'm just snake bitten due to recent results) I think he has JT a large majority of the time. Maybe he shows up with the occaisional Q9, K9, or an even rarer 99 or KQ. I'm discounting 99 and KQ heavily as well as discounting KK and QQ completely due to the preflop limp. 99 should fold with that flop bet anyway.

You're looking at $50 to call in a pot of $135 giving you 2.7:1 direct odds, and he has $162 behind. If he has the straight, you need roughly 4:1 to call. Given he looks like a casual rec player, I would say he calls another big bet or AI on the river if you hit your boat. Those implied odds are enough to make the call.

Don't raise. You'll get it in against a hand that has you beat, and it's not worth the risk. If he calls you with two pair, he'll call with that same two pair on the river barring a J or T.

I call and probably bet fold river, I think he can have hands besides tj that we can get value from that may check back river

agree with other responses RE calling turn raise.

I prefer a C/C line on the river. I think it's unlikely that V checks river through unless a 4th straight card hits. Regardless of what they have (TPTK, two pair, straight) the turn raise makes it highly likely that they will go for another street of value unless a scare card hits.

guess turn is an easy call. river is a 6. board kq496 i check he shoves 163 to call hero?

Played alright if you folded river, and didn't show.

Vomit fold but the right play. This is JT 99% of the time.

+1

Even if V flipped over a hand that isn't JT, you have no info to say otherwise prior to this hand

163 into 343 = 2.1 to 1 = 32.26% needed to break-even.

Board: Kc Qd 4h 9d 6s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 55.556% 55.56% 00.00% 60 0.00 { 44 }
Hand 1: 44.444% 44.44% 00.00% 48 0.00 { KQs, K9s, Q9s, JTs, K9o, Q9o, JTo }

Board: Kc Qd 4h 9d 6s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 23.810% 23.81% 00.00% 15 0.00 { 44 }
Hand 1: 76.190% 76.19% 00.00% 48 0.00 { K9s, Q9s, JTs, JTo }


Board: Kc Qd 4h 9d 6s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 40.741% 40.74% 00.00% 33 0.00 { 44 }
Hand 1: 59.259% 59.26% 00.00% 48 0.00 { K9s, Q9s, JTs, Q9o, JTo }


Kinda close. I think you need to call it off with the limited information you have.

It's 1/3, his range will have some combos of KK, QQ, and 99

99 no chance.

KK/QQ has a very small possibility (less than 5%) hence it's not even worth factoring into the equation.

K9/Q9 are the hands that one should factor in before KK/QQ/99

Calling on the turn as well. Checking river and folding to his shove. Not really enough info to justify a call here. I find that live with anyother hand but JT most villains are either checking this river back or putting >1/2 psb.

I think KQ is more likely than people think. Villain could easily slowplay it on the flop because a lot of villains slowplay too much. But I also see a lot of villains playing KK this way. They go for the limp-reraise pf, slowplay the flop and then wake up on the turn.

Call the turn. I think the river is close. If the bet was smaller I'd say it's an easy call. The large bet looks like JT more than it looks like two pair. But it also looks a little bluffy (not too much though since we don't have a read yet that this player will do that). I lean towards a fold.

River is a fold. He doesn't have anywhere near all of the K9 and Q9 combos. Many times, those fold pre, and though any K9 combos that saw a flop are still there, many of the Q9 ones fold flop. And of the K9 and Q9 combos that do make it to the turn to hit 2 pair, not all of them play this aggressively.

I bet/fold river for $80. Get called by all 2 pairs, get raised by all sets/straights

No one is bluff raising 80 more

So at a table with literally no reads on V, you're going to say it's virtually impossible for him to limp KK/QQ pre because LLSNL never try to l/rr big pairs from up front and it's completely impossible for V to limp 99 and call a small flop bet with 3rd pair.

I'm sorry, but I disagree 100% with your assessment of this.

99 is completely in his range, 100% of the time. KK/QQ I would put at a solid 1-2 combos chance

I do agree that K9/Q9 are in his range though.

Either way I still fold because it's JT a disproportionately large % of the time

So ugly. Your average low stakes unknown villain doesn't take such an aggressive line without a monster. Bet-call, bet-raise, check-shove = the nuts at 1/3.

most are advocating a fold which might be right but im a station and called. if im going to call a river bet on a blank maybe i should just ship turn not sure.

results

Shouldn't be a call unless hero has a read that villain overplays his non-nutted hands. (Or is playing Vegas 1-2 at a wild table.)

It's unlikely (albeit possible) that someone limped in with KK/QQ. So unless board runs out pretty bad, my goal is to attempt to stack off postflop. The SPR is a rather largish ~16 on the flop, so if we're going to play for stacks we need to be getting some serious money in there ASAP. So I would donk $20 into the $15 pot; really dislike the smallish bet, especially when you consider that no one ever folds a draw on the flop.

Gross spot on turn. JT got there. Of everyone at the table, EP is most likely to actually have KK/QQ already (failing to get in a limp/reraise preflop). But he could have KQ, or even K9/Q9, which I don't believe he's folding. I wish we hadda bet just that much more on the flop to make committing easier, but I still think our hand holds up pretty well against a range of hands that are willing to raise the turn and stack off here. So I probably shove the turn.

GcluelessNLnoobG