Quote:
Originally Posted by jesse123
We still have ~$400 left and we've only put $65 in. I don't think we're committed to making a $400 bluff to win a $130 pot; especially since we might win it anyways by checking.
Villain knows what his cards are. He gets to decide whether to stick in the remaining $400. Hero's ranged is pretty capped. V knows overpairs and AK are almost all of Hero's range. He can make an informed decision for $400. If Hero bluffs, it's just a guess and a hope.
Our hand has great equity against ATC, but V isn't going to play for stacks with ATC. We don't need to fold out ATC anyways. We don't have good equity against any hand he'll call with. Even a hand like KJo has ~70% equity against us.
dgiharris loves to say that villains like to "put you on AK". This seems like a villain who might just do that. We're at least a 2 to 1 dog against hands he might take a stand with like KT/QT, AJ.
We've got two more streets to push V off a marginal hand if we really do want to bluff. Plus, we'll have more information when we do it.
It's not correct to say that hero's range is capped when it consists entirely of {the nuts, the second nuts, overpairs, hands with 10 outs to beat top pair}. Really, it's floored. It's villain's range that is capped.
It's also wrong to say that we're going to have more (useful) information if we check the flop. Either we improve our hand, in which case villain is highly unlikely to put any more money in, as all the cards that help us (other than diamonds) are utterly terrifying. Or the board "blanks" and we have absolutely no idea whether the card hit villain's range or not.
I mean, do you ever make double-barrel bluffs? It's hard to think of a situation where a two-street bluff is going to work better than it will here.
EDIT: Let me ask a different question. If you have AA, do you expect to stack this guy 100% of the time when he has 88 or T9 by betting the flop and the turn? 3bet preflop, multiple overcards, bomb the flop, bomb the turn, and he's just blithely calling because hey, maybe it's AK?
Last edited by bobman0330; 03-12-2015 at 06:47 PM.