$550 deep with the relevant player in this hand, similar with others. Game is 8-handed, playing bigger than most 1/3 games (most hands have a $6 or $10 button straddle, but not this one).

In the CO with KdKh.

Preflop:
Folds to me in the CO
I open to $18 with KdKh
BU calls, others fold

Flop ($36): Ks8h7h
I bet $20, he calls.

Turn ($76): Ks8h7hJc
I bet $40, he calls.

River ($156): Ks8h7hJc5h (completing the flush). There’s about $475 behind.

What’s our plan here? As usual, our options are (1) bet/fold, (2) bet/call, (3) check/fold, (4) check/call, or (5) check/raise. If it affects your plan, BU is a big bald apparently-aggressive Mexican guy who just bought in for $500.

I’ll post my thoughts but wanted to get some opinions first.

I would bet the flop $12, and the turn $60. I'd bet-fold the river $150 - I don't expect to ever see a bluff raise here.

B/f or c/c are your options here. If V brought a little pride and ego to the game then go 1/2 PSB. If V brought a lot of pride/ego to the game then c/c. If V is maniac then crai.

pre and flop fine

against aggressive player

I C/C turn and river

against passive I

would $60 on turn and B/F river

Bet 100

I don't understand x-c turn at all, and I'm curious as to the reasoning behind it.

Absolutely don't x-c river though. X'ing river is not an option, but if we do, it's to x-f. Don't check river though, even though we heavily block top pair, there are still 4 combos of AK (people seldom 3 bet AK), 4 combos of KQ, 3 combos of KJ, and 3 combos of 87s. There are also discounted combos of 88 and 77 that slow played. We will value own ourselves/get raised a lot, but there are more worse hands that can call. I might actually go $100 instead of $150 to not get a station to "hero fold" AK/KQ.

The other problem with x-c river is that I expect only flushes to bet. I expect T9s to check back.

I think x/c blocks a bet/shove line, which might be preferable.

Just me, but I think a big bald Hispanic male with possible aggressive tendencies is just the type to wait for a scare card and try to bluff us off of an apparent AK. Players like this don't bluff OTF when a FD is present, they bluff on the river when the flush comes in. They will semibluff with a FD rather than wait for the flush to come in, however.

I might rather pot control than count on him having the case K. I don't know if I can find a fold here, not to a b/r or c/b line from V. I also realize I could be very wrong on my entire read, this V could have played a FD passively and spiked on the river.

So split the difference, lose some value if we are ahead, sure, but don't bloat the pot if we are behind. That's my thought process for the c/c line, anyway.

The basic fundamentals of betting the river is that you do so if you can get a better hand to fold or a worse hand to call. No flush is folding on the river after calling down. T9 is betting the turn to prevent a FD getting a free call.

Two pair or a pair isn't calling when the obviously FD hits on the river. I'd mostly c/f. Top set is a bluff catcher. I might c/c if I've seen the villain bluff this type of river multiple time.

Based on the highlighted, I'd X/C a reasonable bet.

I can't even think of any air that villain will have on the river that he'll turn into a bluff. People almost never turn a pair into a bluff either.

Also, saying two pair isn't calling the river is beyond ridiculous. Some villains will be able to fold AK/KQ here, but this is LLSNL.

Top set is interesting on this texture given we block a lot of V’s calls.

I’d bet/fold, but wouldn’t go too large on this card. Aggressive players (typically) don’t call on every street so off weak reads I’m not too concerned with getting bluffed.

$100 looks good, I’d go $60-80. I think vs a very large bet (% of pot) V’s mostly continuing with better. V doesn’t have that many two pair as well I don’t think as that would’ve probably raised earlier in the hand.

I have seen some V’s show up with total air here, and in particular aggressive Hispanic male players are one of the likeliest types to overshove with air in spots like this. Playing their opponent and not their cards OR their range. The players I’m thinking of play for the machismo, not the value. Forcing the big lay down is their favorite strategy because owning others players is what they value, not necessarily chips.

The hand is too good to fold, which necessarily means it’s too good get blown off of. Until I know more about this V, info like does he bet or c/r FDs, does he shove on a lot of scare cards, does he slowplay strong hands and overplay weak hands, I’m going to go with my population read. My read is he might call 2p, sure, but he might also shove air.

I know I’m calling. I don’t want to have to call a possible shove, so I’ll sacrifice some value and take a pot control-y x/c line OTR here.

What air combos do you think he has in his range?

I don't think you realize how often raises on the river are bluffs. I would expect the number to around 1%, if not less.

Well, first, assume he doesn’t have a range. The players I’m thinking of aren’t playing their range, they are playing against ours. The want the bluff, even if it’s suicidal. But their bluffs aren’t hopeless, they wait on scare cards and then bet hard. They bet so large it gets even the stations to fold.

Against the whole population? Sure, 1% bluffs. Against a large Hispanic male with possible aggressive tendencies? I’m going to go with my table read - subject to change with new information - that they are bluff heavy. I form a plan and stick to it. Call down even if the scare card hits, but don’t bloat the pot.

I’ve called down light against Vs like this and seen A high of a non-scare suit. Or they have insta-mucked when I put the chips in. I do this move once, maybe twice and these Vs adjust and stop bluffing me, but they still play just as wide. This is a win for me also - now they are playing my game instead of theirs. I can c/c more often and realize equity with more marginal holdings.

i'd c/f to any bet more than 1/3 pot, which is what i always do whenever flushes complete in live poker

+1 to this. If you default assume every river raise is not a bluff, you're very unlikely to go far wrong.

Ed Miller makes a really good point that in general at 1/3 you shouldn't try picking off big turn and river bets (unless you have hecka good reads), because the average player just doesn't make these bluffs at anywhere near the frequency that you're going to able to pick them off profitably.

Thanks for the comments. I agree that in general a bet/fold is probably better. But against this particular opponent (who, as I mentioned, seems to be somewhat aggressive/tricky), I don’t know that I’m good enough to lay this good of a hand down for around a pot sized raise. So I decided on a check/call.

If our opponent has a flush, we’re paying them off for one bet with either a check/call or bet/fold, so that doesn’t really matter. So is he more likely to take a stab if we check (i.e., we should check/call), or to call a bet with worse if we bet (i.e., bet/fold)? It’s close, and I’d probably bet/fold against most, but I went with the live read in this case. Especially because he’s so unlikely to have a K here.

Anyway, result: I check, he bets $100, I call, he says “I missed”, I show, we’re good. It was interesting because the guy across the table was giving me crap for not betting and called me a nit... okay. The table also gave me crap a couple hands earlier when I had AQ for TP2K on a dry board OOP, and just went check/call, check/call, check/check. It was a new room and I’d never really experienced people commenting on my play like that.

I think you played both pots just fine. Depending on opponents I’ll x/c strong but non-nut hands all the way sometimes. If your table is overly aggressive it might be good to play a tight and passive strategy to exploit it.

People are going to try and get you to play their game. “You should straddle!” My point is this table may have wanted to get in your head a bit, maybe their style is to see a lot of money get in the middle. It sounds like you’ve got good instincts, so listen to your instincts instead your competition.

Wow...I couldn't disagree more. Granted, I play almost only home games (social), but there are players who will fold to a bet, but take a stab 100% of the time if checked to...like clockwork.

As for the hands you list, I've seen players show up with a dozen more in this kind of scenario.

As for people not three betting AK...again, I disagree completely...not only do I see it, I do it!

Also, I almost never see someone wait to the river to raise a flopped set or two pair...they may slow play the flop, but almost never the turn...unless its a very wet board.

It's like the two of us have been playing a different game...bizarro world poker!!!

Btw, there’s some talk throughout the thread about what if he had raised the turn. Is everyone happy getting it in here OTT with top set on Ks8h7hJc? eg, if we bet $40 and he raises to $150, what’s our plan for our remaining $475?

Well.... not folding the second nuts ott if that's what you're asking. I can see flatting vs. someone you view as aggro, but there are enough draws out there where GII OOP makes a lot of sense.

9-10 coming in is bad but I doubt V has the offsuit variety facing your large open preflop, so there's only 4 combos of that. If they do have 910o, than they (probably) have a lot more junk that will GII with you as well. Maybe they don't all play this way, but J8o, J8s, J7o, J7s, 56o, 56s, and way more flush draws for example.

Bet bigger on flop/turn. This is a wet board and no time to slow play. Your hand is still vulnerable to draws much like flopping top pair. Hand you dominate will still call the bigger bets while offering worst price for draws.

Would probably check-call river. Betting is right in the middle of getting value from worst and getting value-owned from better. Checking may induce a bluff from busted draws or hands that may fold to river bet <2P.

It sounds like your home game plays differently than the traditional LLSNL game.

As far as 3 betting AK pre - yes, it happens, and yes I'm 3 betting AK pre in 99%+ spots, but the population flats it more than they 3 bet it.



Yes. I don't love it, but I'm definitely calling. Four find of T9s, but three combos of 87s, three combos of KJ, discounted combos of slow played sets, and villains occasionally go nuts with J X.

my reasoning for C/C turn is purely 100% based on desc of V

to this type of V it looks like we made a C-bet on flop then checked turn out of weakness. If we can't check call here at the top of our range then what if anything are we ever checking with here ?

the flush coming in is the perfect scare card for a V of this type to bluff with hence the river check
and I would rather C/C here givin desc of V then C/F

again without this read of V I would do as others stated bet turn and B/F river.

Against an aggro villain x/c seems good. I'm betting more flop and turn on this board, I know we block TP hands but so many draws.

I rip it in and feel good about it. He has 6 combos of flopped sets with 4 combos of T9s, maybe KJs. If he has T9o, then he has K8, K7, KJ.