Hand:

Villain: Stack $185, UTG +2
Hero: Stack $600, MP

1 fold
Villain raises to $15(standard raise in this game)
Fold, fold,
Hero calls w/AQ
All others fold.

Flop HU $33: AJ4

Villain checks
Hero checks (I usually bet here but thought I'd check for deception, I don't see him showing up w/flush draw here)

Turn $33: 7

Villain bets $40
Hero calls

River $110: Q

Villain bets $40, has $90 behind
Hero ?
I'm not folding of course, do we raise here and how much? (I set out a goal for myself this year of betting for value better on the river)


Villain: regular, seemed to be playing great earlier but ~1hr ago seemed to flip a switch and playing poorly. Stack was ~400, doesn't seem overtly tilting, maybe moreso bored. His style varies but generally solid TAG.

Hero: image is solid/aggressive, showing down winners

Comments?

Shove

I probably also call preflop. Hopefully this isn't a leak with smallish effective stack size that we have here?

I'm cool with the check behind on the flop. I'm all about pot control with TP hands, so we guarantee a street to check thru by doing it now. Plus we might get worse hands to pay us off later whereas they might just give up now.

Kinda a weird size turn bet (overbetting pot). Is that a bet trying to make up for missed value on the flop? I probably just call too.

On the river I think we've pulled ahead of quite a few hands; there are 14 AK/AJ combos and only 5 AA/QQ/JJ combos. I guess there are some other funky combos that are ahead of us (KT, 77, etc.) that make this closer. Meh, I probably push because I think we get paid off all the time by AJ here and most of the time by AK here.

GcluelessNLnoobG

raise 90>>>>raise 60-80 and hope he says F***it and tosses his last 10-30 bucks in on top

No point in raising less than all in.

Any more notes on villain?

Villain's line is strange. What hand checks the flop then overbets the turn? To me he's either trapping with a set or 2 pr, or has KK, TT and doesn't like the ace but thinks you don't like it either when you check. I would expect AK and AT to bet the flop.

I think shove is slightly better than a call. In game I probably call and it's probably a leak.

This helps.

This too. I thought his line was real strange. I thought a long time and figured he most likely had KK tho a range of AK,AQ,AJ,QJ,AA,QQ,JJ, rarely KT.

Any suggestions on weighing the likelyhood of shoving and getting called by worse vs shoving and being behind? I guess that was the nature of my decision here.

I think this is JJ and AA(less likely) a lot. When the PFR checks the flop and shows significant action on unchanged later streets, a lot of times means they flopped a set. I am obviously calling the river but I really hate raising here.

if so strong, why underbet it on the river?

Easy shove IMO

Not easy imo. I cannot picture the villian checking the flop with any ace and/or two pair. He would only check if he had nothing, set, and/or KKs or QQs. There is a slight possibility that he just backdoored the OP as well.

The way the villain has been playing does not warrant a fold, however, I cannot see a raise being +EV. I would just flat.

We have close to the nuts here, we have to raise I think to get value from all ace's/2pair hands, I don't think you'd have made the thread if you won the hand so I guess he had a strangely played AA or JJ (44+77 are less likely given the EP raise), i think its pretty unlikely he pot's the turn with K10 or QQ.

I shove the river here always.

But for the flop play I think he flops a monster. He raised pre then checked the flop and overbet the turn with a 7d. Then he value bets the river.

I think that sets are in his range or Kc10c hands. But his flop check, delayed cbet overbet line is throwing me off here.

Still, were not folding this river. We came this far but I think we are beat a lot here.

Reevaluate the turn bet and call, thats the interesting part.

Yeah I'm probably shoving the river too... but his flop play to me definitely suggests he has a monster. Who doesn't cbet an ace high flop heads up?

Get all your chips in.

Thanks for the notes.

I just called, villain showed up w/AK here.

I strongly agree with this
Flop check by villain for deception. I see this alot

This = monster-under-the-bed syndrome.

You have a blocker to AA. We're talking about 4 hand combos here. 1 that people are realistically checking with the A on board unless Villain suffers from FPS.

I'd be a lot more concerned about QQ if you think you're beat on the river, but given the passive/trappy/inducey line you took and how little money there is behind I don't see how you can possibly do anything but jam this river.

snapshove

def like check back a lot here. call turn because villain doesnt understand bet sizing and shove river because we beat all his hands besides AA/JJ. His river bet size confirms he has no clue what he is doing, and if he had nuts here, he would over bomb river just like the turn. I discount KT b/c he just can't have that in his range the way he played the hand.
If you don't hit Q on river, I probably make a call here as well (though that might be a leak)

Thoughts if river isn't a Q, would consensus be call or fold to villains river bet?