Quote:
Originally Posted by pokerfan655
He's very unlikely to have a flush draw given he raised pre and he raised our flop raise. I think the big question is when he makes it 450 is he doing that with overpairs? If he can overplay AA/KK/QQ then it's fine, but maybe he isn't and only making it 450 with sets. If he only re-raises with sets then we should just fold to the 450. Either way I still like the flop raise - most of the time he just calls the raise and we keep betting or he folds, but of course this hand was posted for probably the 5% of scenarios where we get re-raised. Think we should be concerned with the 95% of outcomes.
I think you misunderstood the point I was making.
V c-bet the flop. At this point, hero hasn't raised yet, and V hasn't 3B yet. Hero doesn't know V is going to 3B over hero's raise. Hero still has the option to just call, which is what I'd prefer, rather than raising.
V could have a better flush draw when he c-bets here, so our flush outs aren't clean (as far as we know, before we've raised and he's 3B). I don't like raising here, assuming we have a monster combo draw with 15 outs when it really may only be 8 outs to a straight.
Once he 3B's flop, whether or not our flush outs are clean is moot, since he's not repping a draw when he 3B's.
Even if we don't get 3B, V isn't always going to call if we make our hand after we've check-raised, because all our most obvious bluffs would have gotten there. His over-pairs are more likely to call a turn donk-bet if we just flat call here, whereas those hands might fold to our flop raise. We could also wait and check-raise the turn, for value or as a bluff.
Could V be 3B'ing with over-pairs? Sure. Probably not, but it's possible. But if so, he could also 3B with two overs and a better draw. Probably wouldn't, but he might, if he looks at the board and decides hero isn't limping-flatting first-to-act pre with 99, 77, 22, or 97. Flop check-raises are going to be more bluff-heavy than turn check-raises, so he might put hero on a hand like T8dd or 86dd.
Both are hypotheticals and beside the point. I don't like check-raising T8dd on the flop here, as played, because a competent V is going to pounce on that raise like a fat kid pounces on a candy-bar. I'd much prefer a check-call on flop, followed by a donk-lead or check-raise on the turn, either for value when we make our hand, or as a bluff when we don't.