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1/3 two pair facing flop shove 1/3 two pair facing flop shove

05-21-2012 , 06:47 PM
A quick hand that's been bothering me a bit -
Local casino 1/3 game, been playing for about 3 hours.

Hero: 20's white male messy hair, tshirt, no hoodie/sunglasses etc
playing pretty standard abc tagish

Villain: late 20s? male, couldn't put a race on him, somewhere between asian and hispanic. also playing somewhat tagish, though over the small sample size we've played maybe tighter than normal, not many preflop raises, could just be bad run of hands though.

our only meaningful history is him 5betting AIPF into my aces, flop ran out queen high, i flipped em over and he nodded, mucked and re-bought without complaint.

Villain: UTG+2 with a little over $200
Hero: SB and covers

a limp in front of him he limps, a few others, 6 iirc. it's a somewhat passive table preflop, with pretty good implied odds when you hit gin, so I find K6 and toss in the two chips. BB checks.

Flop: KQ6 yay

I pause a moment to consider betting or checking, because the table is somewhat loose postflop and there were 6 limpers to the pot, i'm hoping someone has a one pair hand and will make a bet that I can raise for value. Maybe that's not the right line, would like to hear thoughts on that.

Anyhow, I take maybe 2 seconds and check, it checks to villain who makes it 20 without much pause. It folds to me, and I just take a moment to count out a raise to 55, and place them over the line. it folds to villain who checks his cards, stacks all his chips and without more pause than that moves them all over the line.

...I play with my cards for 10 seconds or so before deciding my action.

What range do we assign villain here, and by extension do we call or fold?
1/3 two pair facing flop shove Quote
05-21-2012 , 07:07 PM
KQo K6s Q6s 66

You're chopping 25%, crushed 50%, crushing 25%. Facing ~145 call to win ~255 is about 1.8:1, so it's a fold.

From combinatorics standpoint, only 1 combo of K6s (spade) and 2 combos Q6s (spade, heart), given flop texture, so super snap fold.

Last edited by scelsi; 05-21-2012 at 07:11 PM. Reason: Combos
1/3 two pair facing flop shove Quote
05-21-2012 , 09:05 PM
Fold.

OTF - don't CR, lead instead. You are probably against a better hand here. Most times however you'll be facing a Kx hand that you will fold out with a CR.
1/3 two pair facing flop shove Quote
05-21-2012 , 09:10 PM
Pf complete is whatever but checking here makes no sense since there is no pfr. bet into the field.
1/3 two pair facing flop shove Quote
05-21-2012 , 09:13 PM
how soon after you felted villain did this hand occur? Does villain appear to be tilting?
1/3 two pair facing flop shove Quote
05-21-2012 , 10:29 PM
Quote:
how soon after you felted villain did this hand occur? Does villain appear to be tilting?
At least an hour after, and no, if he has it out for me hes not showing it by anything but betsizing

Quote:
Originally Posted by samo
Fold.
OTF - don't CR, lead instead. You are probably against a better hand here. Most times however you'll be facing a Kx hand that you will fold out with a CR.
Quote:
Pf complete is whatever but checking here makes no sense since there is no pfr. bet into the field.
In general I agree with you guys, and that's even something I advise when I bring friends to the place, "People play really loose passive with one pair hands, if you have something, bet it."

My thought process at the time was maybe a little tilted myself, I've been here with a hand like JTs, check raised and get called with Q7o or something like this, so I felt like "This time I'll show up with two pairs."

I realize that was the live boredom talking and I really don't need to be balancing my range here, nor was this villain the one I wanted to be doing that against. As soon as he bet out and nobody else called I should probably have seriously reconsidered the line. Or perhaps got up and left once I wasn't thinking straight enough to just bet out on his board... heh.

In any case, I did end up here and I just called it off, he showed me two Queens, I realized immediately that I was probably an idiot for calling against this villian, and ordered some black coffee.

I've been looking at potential ranges because I'm just thinking about the idea of folding top and bottom pair on a board with a couple draws to a taggy guy with 60bb stacks. even in a limped pot. Seems weird instinctively, but maybe my instincts are flawed as they often are.

Quote:
Board: Kd Qc 6h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 44.702% 42.16% 02.54% 8765 528.50 { Kc6c }
Hand 1: 55.298% 52.76% 02.54% 10968 528.50 { QQ, 66, AKs, KQs, K6s, Q6s, AKo, KQo }


Board: Kd Qc 6h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 27.929% 24.07% 03.86% 3098 496.50 { Kc6c }
Hand 1: 72.071% 68.21% 03.86% 8779 496.50 { QQ, 66, KQs, K6s, Q6s, KQo }
If he can show up limping with QQ here, maybe KK AA or AK? but does he ship with AA or AK? not sure. what do you think?
1/3 two pair facing flop shove Quote
05-21-2012 , 10:36 PM
only ONE aspect of your read is tempting me to call this shove:

Back to the KK vs. AA hand...it went to 5bets before stacks got in. Granted stacks were deeper than in this current hand. But I get the sense that he wants callers when he feels he is ahead and isn't content with folding worse and picking up dead money.

55 to 200 is a huge jump on a relatively dry flop, so maybe a JTs with a backdoor FD can be a part of his range
1/3 two pair facing flop shove Quote
05-21-2012 , 10:48 PM
First, you should lead this flop most of the time. Hard to say for sure, since really it depends on all table dynamics, but you are not getting a bet on this flop as often as you think. Also in my experience it's just so predictably bad with 1/2 "tags" that they c/r from the blinds whenever they have something, but so rarely lead with hands that they'll 3-bet all in with. Don't be like that. Mix up leads from EP with varying strength.

Second, for the love of god he could easily have been attempting a lrr with AA or be semi-bluffing with JT here. You aren't deep. Call.
1/3 two pair facing flop shove Quote
05-21-2012 , 10:52 PM
he easily could have AA or QQ with a missed l/rr

also i dont see why you c/r
try to never c/r in limp pots lead all day
1/3 two pair facing flop shove Quote
05-22-2012 , 12:00 PM
Taggy limp with the queens. U probably should be paying more attention to villains if u thought he was at all tag before this hand.
1/3 two pair facing flop shove Quote

      
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