1/3 9max

eff stack ~500

2 limps, co (hero) isor 20 w/ KQhh, sb (tight) & 2 limper (one is main vil, who just sat down) call

pot ~80

flop 972 ddh

sb donk 25, fold, main vil call, hero call

pot ~155

turn Kd

sb x, main vil bet 20, hero & sb call

pot ~210

river blank, 2 or 3 of spades

sb x, main vil bet 150, hero ?

I'd either raise larger to actually have an attempt at thinning the field or just overlimp (possibly even an argument for a very small pot juicer raise), with my aim being to get myself in a spot I like (very multiway with a high SPR or HU with a smaller SPR) and avoiding spots I don't like (very multiway to a low SPR, which is a pretty standard result in this spot).

I'd just fold the flop. Yeah, it's a decent price, but dude is donking into the world and we have nothing (apart from RIO).

For this price I guess I despise a turn call. Honestly though, we're mostly being milked by the flush or by a still better hand that isn't crazy about the flush.

I'll assume the river is another K (or otherwise there wouldn't be much of a question)? Looks very boaty / perhaps flushy. I mean, really, he somehow got to the turn with a worse K and is now overvalueing trips? Going nutso with busted T8 against 2 opponents?

GcluelessNLnoobG

Pre seems standard.

Flop is a very easy fold.

Turn if I get here like this it's hard to fold, but call flop bet turn into 2 ppl is usually at least 2pr+

Easy fold otr.

River isn't necessarily a blank. On a 2s, board pairs and fkushes are slightly downgraded. On 3s, flushes are still nutted.
Whether the board paired or not is an important detail.

River is a judgment call as played. The fact is that people bluff. They end up at the ri er with all sorts of nonsense after betting turn for 20. We have to be good 29.4% to profit here. I am never worried about SB here. You have one of the better hands you are going to arrive with on the river. It is hard to have a king here and you have a king. It is also hard to have flushes - you won't have tons, and you likely would raise turn with a flush. You likely raise the flop with KK or a flopped set, 99 maybe you can trap sometimes with top set. Still, this is going to be one of your better hands. Without a strong read, I lean towards call.

Flop call I think is fine. 2 overs with backdoror potential facing a tiny bet in position. But when you actually hit top pair, it should be very difficult to make you fold.

There is an argument for raising the turn actually, and possibly betting river for value as well or maybe checking back. The turn bet is just too small. I would definitely value bet river if checked to.

The fact that SB is also still in the hand and yet Villain is still betting 3ways is the main worry, imo. I just don't see enough bluffs multiway on the river to justify a call, ime.

GcluelessNLnoobG

We only have to be good 3 our of 10 times. SB's range does not scream strength when he donked flop for less than 1/3 and called just a 13% pot bet on turn. Main villain can arrive at river will all sorts of garbage afyer his turn bet and everything about him screams recreational player. Generally when facing a recreational who we don't have a strong read or history that tell us that he isn't bluffing, his range on the river contains all sorts of garbage, and his line makes no sense, we should be inclined to call with our bluff catchers, especially our good ones.

There is a chance he can be bluffing with all sorts of nonsense. 1 spade, 2nd or 3rd pair, busted straight draw, etc.

If we fold here, we are being exploitable as this is going to be very high in our range. I get that we should make exploitable folds, but honestly I think this is more of a spot to make exploitative calls.

Do we really think we can't make this call and with 3 out of 20 times, or is our loss aversion dictating our decisions here?

I strongly disagree with almost every statement you make in this post.

Villlain bet 20 on the turn? I'm mostly raising.

As played, i call river. Hand is too high in range to auto-fold. The idea that villain can't value bet worse or bluff is crazy.

$20 iso is good, Fold flop, fold river. As soon as he donks flop, alarms should be going off in your head.

3 out of 10*

looks like a very marginal hand (probably slightly +ev or -ev) based on your different opinions.

this is how the hand turned out:

My guess (?) is the overwhelming majority of opponents in your game aren't doing that. So just make a note that he is capable of doing that, and add him to the list of opponents that you would deviate from making overly-exploitable folds to (as the rest of the population likely isn't attempting to exploit you).

GcluelessexploitablenoobG

I stand firmly but what I said. Even if the majority of players making this line aren't bluffing, villain is a subset that will bluff way too much with this line. They may never take this line for value. But I think what is telling here is that this line for value is extremely uncommon. When you take everything into consideration, I would think I'm easily good 3 out of 10 times here.

We're supposed to be wrong when we call most of the time when we bluff catch.

Yes, there are some spots that are vastly underbluffed and we should overfold. But there are other times when if we don't bluff catch enough, it can be a pretty big leak.

I will give you that the majority of players are not doing this. But the majority also aren't playing a nutted hand like this either. What this means is you aren't going to reach this node in the game tree very often. However. However, when you do make it here, the players with trash hands on the river that need to bluff are disproportionately represented. Since they are overbluffing, even if some people will take this line for value and never bluff here, we are easily hitting 30% bluffs.

Think anytime someone calls a very small flop bet. Then bets this small on the turn. He either has KK , AXs or he has jack **** when he bombs the river. So I cant fold. I think I read someone say you need to be good 3/10 times. That sounds about right. I would guess you are good 4/10 to 6/10.