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1/3 TPGK on paired board

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12-15-2018 , 09:10 PM

SUYAPA

adept

Join Date: Oct 2017 Posts: 769

Hero ~700€ card dead

Villain loose recreational ~400€
Calls a lot pre and plays straight forward. He limp/calls pre shyte like J3s and gets sticky with FDs but havent seen him show down a bluff so far.

Folds to villain otb, he limps. We are in sb and iso-raise 15€ with Q

, bb folds, villain calls.

Flop (33€) 9

We cbet 17€ with our 2 overs and backdoors, villain calls.

Turn (67€) 9

Hero bets 47€, villain calls.

River (161€) 9

Hero checks, villain bets 110€, hero?

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12-15-2018 , 09:26 PM

Garick

Oberbiergenießer

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 26,648

I'm letting this go, if we've yet to see a bluff. Sure this is a common busted FD line but 1, it's not usually so big a bet, and 2, we have no evidence that he bluffs so far.

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12-16-2018 , 11:37 AM

GuitarDean

journeyman

Join Date: Apr 2018 Posts: 260

Quote:

Originally Posted by Garick

I'm letting this go, if we've yet to see a bluff. Sure this is a common busted FD line but 1, it's not usually so big a bet, and 2, we have no evidence that he bluffs so far.

Agreed.

And I want to add: villain's hand may even be a turned straight with any of 16 combos of 87 that decided not the raise immediately OTT given that you've shown aggression on every street thus far; a perfectly valid play with 87 would've been to hope for a non-spade turn, wait for your triple barrel OTR, and then raise. And if a spade comes, it's still safe to call the river with the straight.

There are more combos of hands that beat you than just 9x, pushing this even further towards a fold.

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12-16-2018 , 07:59 PM

6bet me

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: May 2016 Posts: 3,885

I'm snapping this off. If he limp-called pre with some random 9x hand then good on him. There's too many busted draws and villain is going to just have too much air here. We also only need to be good like ~30% of the time to make this a profitable call, and we're near the top of our range and we unblock bluffs.

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12-16-2018 , 10:21 PM

SUYAPA

adept

Join Date: Oct 2017 Posts: 769

I wanted to call so badly because i thought about the suited trash hands he got sticky before but convinced myself that he has a nine because i didnt saw him bluff yet.

We think for a minute and fold. He shows J

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12-16-2018 , 10:30 PM

ChrisV

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 40,336

Tough spot, but looks like a fold imo.

Edit: Don't rate the "haven't seen him bluff" reasoning though. This is the world's most obvious bluff spot. Very few players will simply check and show down J high here.

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12-17-2018 , 12:10 AM

RyanK

newbie

Join Date: May 2017 Posts: 34

Hi, did you pick any read on him as he called the turn ?
And as he bet the river ?

I think that is the most important part here. Yeah we could analyze the spot mathematically and come up with an answer with odds and your range by the river but it doesn't help for 1/2.
Vilain are so different. Some will never bluff, some will always bluff this spot but betting small etc...
I think we can't give a linear answer, especially when we didn't play the hand

Live read and your feeling at the moment are way more precious than analysis for 1/2

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