Quote:
Originally Posted by johnnyBuz
Yes true, so 8 bluffs 9 value now.
Quote:
Originally Posted by p566
So, that is the combinatorics. But what about frequency? It seems an aggressive, value seeking villain plays the value hands this way near 100%. But does he play all those bluff hands this way 100%. That seems unlikely. Does he play them that way enough to make up 31% of the times he bets every street?
So 8*N/(8*N+9)=.32 solve for N. N=.53. So he has to bluff that range 53% of the time to justify calling. Seems unlikely.
His bluffing frequency (to break even) I believe needs only to be the ~31% pot odds he is laying. So he just needs to bet his 9 (let's make it 8 for ease) value combos at 100% and all 8 bluffs at 50% (or half his bluffs at 100%).
Granted, it's a real life hand, so perceived ranges and exploitative play count for a lot. V
likely is trying to get paid and expects to get called too often (It is MGMNH after all) in which case hero can consider folding just about everything but the best hands. Perhaps though, KQ is the best hand in which case you simply have to call.