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1/3 TP 2nd best kicker and OOP player keeps firing dry board 1/3 TP 2nd best kicker and OOP player keeps firing dry board

08-02-2017 , 04:25 PM
Finally. An actual hand worthy of posting that highlights a common spot and requires basic analysis.

Well done.
1/3 TP 2nd best kicker and OOP player keeps firing dry board Quote
08-02-2017 , 06:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by johnnyBuz
Yes true, so 8 bluffs 9 value now.
Quote:
Originally Posted by p566
So, that is the combinatorics. But what about frequency? It seems an aggressive, value seeking villain plays the value hands this way near 100%. But does he play all those bluff hands this way 100%. That seems unlikely. Does he play them that way enough to make up 31% of the times he bets every street?

So 8*N/(8*N+9)=.32 solve for N. N=.53. So he has to bluff that range 53% of the time to justify calling. Seems unlikely.
His bluffing frequency (to break even) I believe needs only to be the ~31% pot odds he is laying. So he just needs to bet his 9 (let's make it 8 for ease) value combos at 100% and all 8 bluffs at 50% (or half his bluffs at 100%).

Granted, it's a real life hand, so perceived ranges and exploitative play count for a lot. V likely is trying to get paid and expects to get called too often (It is MGMNH after all) in which case hero can consider folding just about everything but the best hands. Perhaps though, KQ is the best hand in which case you simply have to call.
1/3 TP 2nd best kicker and OOP player keeps firing dry board Quote
08-02-2017 , 06:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by teddyrowe9
I'd at least give him a few combos of AK. There are 8 left, and to discount them all seems like a pretty big assumption that could really mess up the math. I think a lot depends on if we think he has KTo in his preflop range. If not, there are only 2 combos of KT he could have.

The only obvious 3-barrel river bluff combos are QJs, so 4 combos there (and he'd have to play it like this every time). I'd be hesitant to put much else in there without more information. I guess I'll ask OP if he thinks V would basically lead out with air on the flop?

I still think it's a fold.


You don't really have to discount them, I merely don't need to count them because I showed enough bluffs that including them doesn't change my answer.

Fwiw, I don't think there is much difference between folding and calling (hence my sigh call). I'd probably try to get some type of a live read if I was OP, to sway my decision one way
1/3 TP 2nd best kicker and OOP player keeps firing dry board Quote
08-02-2017 , 06:29 PM
I would lean towards V1 having a set here with just calling the pre-flop raiser and then leading the flop. It's pretty obvious you have Kx here, if he is any kind of reasonable thinking player then that is what he has you pegged on. The only missed draw that he might almost pot river bluff is JQ and you block it so that makes that hand even less likely.

I think you could have gotten away with it on the turn. If you called the flop and turn and believe he is simply trying to buy the pot on the river and you have a good read on him, make the heroish call. This is where it pays to go into the tank and observe your opponent, try to decipher if he looks nervous or calm and collected. Some spewy V's will get out of line and barrel this flop/turn/river with even air.
1/3 TP 2nd best kicker and OOP player keeps firing dry board Quote
08-04-2017 , 05:46 PM
Results?
1/3 TP 2nd best kicker and OOP player keeps firing dry board Quote
08-04-2017 , 05:57 PM
Is there any argument for a fold preflop? It's for a relatively cheap price, and our hand plays fine multiway, and we're position. But we might only go three way and we're facing an EP raiser (we're dominated a lot here), although I guess we release our hand if raiser shows aggression. I don't think a fold here is horrible, but I certainly don't hate a call in these conditions either.

I'm fine with flop. Let's use our position and turn card/action to help us decide on what to do instead of forgoing a lot of that by raising flop, imo.

Turn is getting a little more dicey now as he's continuing and for fairly large. I think we should at least consider exiting here, but I'm fine with calling.

River for me is very polarized as I believe most TP hands simply check to consider bluffcatching once all the draws bust (or they sometimes throw out a blocking bet). So he either has a monster or 3 barrelled air, perhaps picking up QJdd on the turn. The problem is, so few players 3 barrel at this level. But his bet size is screaming "fold", not "please pay me off".

Ggrossspot,imoG
1/3 TP 2nd best kicker and OOP player keeps firing dry board Quote
08-04-2017 , 06:04 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek
Is there any argument for a fold preflop?
vs described EP V, no, i'm never folding pre
1/3 TP 2nd best kicker and OOP player keeps firing dry board Quote
08-04-2017 , 06:56 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by johnnyBuz
Results?
Do we do that now? It's about the decision against his range, not his actual hand.
1/3 TP 2nd best kicker and OOP player keeps firing dry board Quote
08-04-2017 , 07:04 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by p566
Do we do that now? It's about the decision against his range, not his actual hand.
The journey is more important but we still wanna know your destination.

Jesus, Im about to actually submit this post.
Spoiler:
Sorry
1/3 TP 2nd best kicker and OOP player keeps firing dry board Quote
08-04-2017 , 07:19 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by p566
Do we do that now? It's about the decision against his range, not his actual hand.
We've pretty much covered everything. Nobody responded for two days so it's just going to die a result-less post otherwise.
1/3 TP 2nd best kicker and OOP player keeps firing dry board Quote

      
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