Open Side Menu Go to the Top
Register
<img -3, Tough River Laydown <img -3, Tough River Laydown

06-15-2013 , 08:30 AM
Early in the session and have played with both villains many hours before. Villain 1 is loose and bad. Plays emotional and is good for at least one spazz hand a night. He will not fold to a normal sized raise after he limps. Villain 2 is even more special and I am more confident in my reads. He plays extremely loose and will call to chase gutshots and 5 out draws to two pairs. When he misses he will bluff some to counteract his bad chasing. I have started to notice though that his bluffs are smaller and when he hits he bets a lot bigger. Others in the player pool haven't figured this out yet and still tend to pay him off.

SB - Villain 2 ($325)
UTG +2 - Villain 1 ($225)
MP - Hero (Covers)

Preflop villain 1 limps and I Isoraise to $18 with A10, folds around to SB villain 2 who calls. BB folds and villain 1 calls as well.

Flop ($57) JQK Checks to hero who bets $40. My C-bets are usually about 1/2 pot and I increased it here because of how this should smack villains limp calling ranges. I admit I should have been closer to full pot. Only villain 2 in small blind calls.

Turn ($137) 9 Villain checks and hero bets $90. I want villain to be able to make a move with any 10 I just continue to bet for straight value. Villain calls with little hesitation.

River ($317) K and villain snap open ships $177 . Hero asks villain if he has K-J or something and villain smirks. Hero folds.

Interested in bet sizing and thoughts on fold when we beat naked 10.
<img -3, Tough River Laydown Quote
06-15-2013 , 10:40 AM
I'm probably calling. If he played 2pr this passively then he has aids. Feels much more line spazzing trips or as you say the naked ten. Might be wishful thinking though.
<img -3, Tough River Laydown Quote
06-15-2013 , 10:45 AM
This would be a call as he probably has a nice k6 suited type hand a good chunk of the time and thinks he just rivered the absolute nuts
<img -3, Tough River Laydown Quote
06-15-2013 , 11:45 AM
PF and Flop are fine, but perhaps slightly larger on Flop to set up stacking off better.

AP Turn I would go smaller, go for c/r or overbet the pot ... make him think you are something like AdK or a 10 who doesnt want diamonds to hit ... If he has 2pr at this point he will follow any size bet and AP you leave him with an amount he can fold to on River with only one pair.

I agree that he prob would play 2 pr more aggressively but if he puts you on a 10 then you give him a decent price to draw (at least to him). Could he have AK here? K10? His stack size here on the River doesnt really give you information on your read of him but I think you are slightly ahead of his range here for +EV call.

What does he put you on here? Always a 10 based on Turn bet? That may be more important than what you think he has.

I just think you needed to approach the Turn differently ... flip a coin on River. GL
<img -3, Tough River Laydown Quote
06-15-2013 , 11:58 AM
This is a call against a donk. We only need to be right about 27% of the time. He has plenty of Tx and Kx to justify our call.
<img -3, Tough River Laydown Quote
06-15-2013 , 04:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by answer20
AP Turn I would go smaller, go for c/r or overbet the pot ... make him think you are something like AdK or a 10 who doesnt want diamonds to hit ... If he has 2pr at this point he will follow any size bet and AP you leave him with an amount he can fold to on River with only one pair.

What does he put you on here? Always a 10 based on Turn bet? That may be more important than what you think he has.

I just think you needed to approach the Turn differently ... flip a coin on River. GL
I am in position, so check raise is out of the question! I think based on my turn bet he puts me on at least a 10 and maybe a set, but I may be projecting my true range onto villain!

Did you guys read my villain reads? I am suprised no one has said to fold!
<img -3, Tough River Laydown Quote
06-15-2013 , 04:49 PM
I also did think about betting smaller on the turn to make it easier for villain to bluff, but the two reasons I didn't were that this particular villain is not the type of player to do it and I am staring to listen to you guys on here about my smaller bet sizing being bad. Again, I may have the nuts, but this board smacks a raise callers range.
<img -3, Tough River Laydown Quote
06-15-2013 , 05:42 PM
Grunch

I'm not folding here given the player description... Wouldn't you have heard from two pairs or set's by now? There are too many hands in his value range that you beat, mainly Tx and Kx. If he shows up with a boat then NH and reload.
<img -3, Tough River Laydown Quote
06-15-2013 , 05:48 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Submerged
I am in position, so check raise is out of the question! I think based on my turn bet he puts me on at least a 10 and maybe a set, but I may be projecting my true range onto villain!

Did you guys read my villain reads? I am suprised no one has said to fold!
Yeah, we did... and that's why its a snap call. If he as bad as you say, he can have Tx and Kx here. If something was included in your read that he slow plays strong hands until the river, then maybe you can find a fold here. But you didn't really mention anything about how he plays his strong hands, only that he chases weak hands for big bets and then donks when he gets there. He could have "gotten there" with a weaker hand than you have.

If you are beat here I think it's by K9.
<img -3, Tough River Laydown Quote
06-15-2013 , 07:37 PM
Semi-Grunch:

This is a SNAP call! Folding is atrocious.

You play winning poker by maximizing your opponents' mistakes while minimizing your own. So let's analyze how bad it would be if you called and paid off a full house.

You had the nuts on the turn, so your opponent, if he now has a full house, was drawing. He called $90 into a pot of $137. If you pay him off, he will have won 90 + 137 + 177 = 404, for implied odds of about 4.5:1 on his $90 call.

This is not good if he has a set, because he was 3.4:1 to hit. However, because of what's on the board, we can seriously discount sets--he would have had to just call preflop with KK, QQ, or JJ. Possible, but not especially likely.

Two pair combos are more likely--there are 6 combos each of KQ and KJ compared to only, let's say 4 combos of sets (reduced from 7 because I'm heavily discounting KK and QQ, but not totally eliminating them). If he had 2 pair and improved, he was 10:1 against improving and makes nowhere near the necessary implied odds.

So let's do a weighted average here: 60% of the time, his chances of improving are 1/11, and 40% of the time, his chances are 5/22. So his total chances of improving would have been

(3/5)(1/11) + (2/5)(5/22) = 3/55 + 1/11 = 8/55

for odds of 47:8, or just under 6:1. But even if you pay him off, he only gets 4.5:1 on his money. So calling and paying off a full house is a smaller mistake than the mistake he made on the turn by calling to draw against you.

Now contrast with this: the pot is almost $500. You're getting good odds on a call. If Villain happens to be "accidentally bluffing" with Tx (or even if he knows he is bluffing) and pushes you off this pot, you have made a HUGE mistake!

"Cliffs" (as they say): Calling when you should fold is not a big mistake in this spot, but folding when you should call is a big mistake. Avoid the big mistake and call with confidence.
<img -3, Tough River Laydown Quote
06-16-2013 , 12:11 AM
I'm never folding the way this hand played out against described V. My chips would have been in the middle before he finished saying all in.
<img -3, Tough River Laydown Quote
06-16-2013 , 01:03 AM
A ten makes way more sense than a slow played two pair, and you are getting good odds. This is a snap call.
<img -3, Tough River Laydown Quote
06-16-2013 , 01:39 AM
Every street is good except river. No need to get fancy with check raising the turn, even if you could. Gotta call river, odds are too good and a drooler like that will shove worse than boats in this spot imo.
<img -3, Tough River Laydown Quote
06-16-2013 , 02:39 AM
I guess this was a "know your villain spot". I folded and he showed KJ. I was as close to 100% confident as I could get. This was really just a brag post as I never lay this down a month ago!
<img -3, Tough River Laydown Quote

      
m