Quote:
Originally Posted by MAGAHat
I knew it!!
For anyone who said "fold"......why? What ranges are you giving the villains?
With so many OESD's, double-gutters, and pair+draw's possible, how are we folding? Sets are discounted immensely here. We block almost all the 99 and TT, and those hands don't fit the preflop action anyway. There are only 3 combos of 77, and those are also probably discounted by the lack of preflop action.
Too much MUBS in this thread
This was what I have been asking myself after the hand was played, as we do block a lot of sets, but we also block a lot of the hands that we want to be called by (other two pair). We don't block straights, or straight draws.
Whatever else we may think, this is a very clear shove or fold spot. Calling makes no sense at all. So what do we get called by if we shove? I cracked open an equity calculator and plugged some numbers in. Here is what I found.
For starters, assume I shove for $300, and get called by just one player.
1. Get called by made straights, and sets only
No surprise here, we have miserable 17.568% equity in the pot.
2. Straights, sets, and all Two Pair combos
36.144% equity. Better, but still not what we want.
3. Straights, sets, all Two Pair combos, and all pair plus 8 combos
46.966% equity. Still not what we want, although now we can start talking about the money in the pot already, maybe making this worth it from pot odd POV.
4. Straights, sets, all Two Pair combos, all pair plus 8 combos, and JT, QJ 88
52.405% equity.
5. Straights, sets, Two Pair combos, all pair plus 8 combos, and some other 8's
By other 8's I mean all combos of A8 and K8, plus 88, Q8s, 82s, 83s, 84s, 85s. Fish do like any suited cards.
Here we have 56.127% equity.
6. Straights, sets, Two Pair combos, all pair plus 8 combos, JT, QJ, 88, and some other 8's
57.82% equity
There was $137 (after rake) in the pot by the time the action got to us. If we push for $290 there is $427 in the pot.
V2 and V3 need to call $230 so they are getting about the right price to call with their open enders.
Its a complicated spot with multiple players. If I assume that V1 calls with range #5, V2 calls with Range #2, and V3 calls with Range # 4 then we have only 18% equity.... but that's if they all call.
If V2 always folds, then we have 35% equity.
So I am guessing that from a pure math POV this is always a shove, since we must have some fold equity (where all 3 fold, or two fold), and get called wide enough to be in a +EV spot, especially with the chips already out there. But I have no idea how to factor in fold equity with this many players.
Does anyone know how to work out the full math ie plug in each players calling range, and folding %, and calculate all the different scenarios?