Hero is early 20's white male, not exactly sure what my imagine is. I spewed off a buy in very early in the session against V but for the last 4 hours folded nearly everything and then flopped quads and the nut straight back to back, so my image is probably somewhat tight with the ability to make plays.

V is older guy 60-70ish, decent thinking player, somewhat TAGish, few notable hands was he opened KQ for $10, bets $15 into a 5 way pot on a AT7ss board. I call with 54 with 2 other calling. Turn is a brick, checks to me on the cutoff I bet $70 everybody quickly folds to him who tanks for a bit then shoves for $100 total, obv I have to call. He hits a pair and I don't show my hand. Very confused why he checked if he was intending to get it in anyway -- much better off shoving with massive equity. I also saw him get in like $140 with AK on a AT5r board after raising the flop and getting 3bet, running into a set of aces. And on a 89Tdd board he just flatted me 2 streets with A7 in a multiway pot, but I think he might be capable of raising combo draws in some instances.

OK, Onto the hand.

Effective Stacks ~$1150

Hero is dealt 88 UTG and opens to $13, V calls on my direct left, 2 others call behind, and both the blinds call.

Flop ($68): 568

Blinds check, Hero checks, V bets $45, everybody folds around to me. I think for a bit and checkraise to $135. I thought the sizing was fine, keeps his continuing range as wide as 76 or 87, though he knows I'm never really bluffing here so probably folds out hands like 98.

V thinks for a minute or so then 3bets the flop to $320, with about $800 more behind.

Hero ???

This is a very rare line to see IMO with older players, so it really catches me off guard. We're almost 400bb deep, I don't know if I can shove here but I don't know if I can fold either -- problem is if I call I almost always have to check/fold the turn. (But if I don't check fold the turn then I'm way better off just shoving the flop)

Noting hands I played with V earlier I try to narrow down his range here.

First off, I'm going to give V all suited combos of 97 (4 combos), and while he likely doesn't play 47s maybe he sometimes plays 97o so let's say he plays 47s half the time and 97o 1/3 of the time, giving him approximately (10 combos) of nutted hands (probably closer to 6 but for the sake of arguement this seems fine).

Now what does my percieved range look like? I'm opening UTG and have a TAGish imagine, V likely assumes I have QQ+ or Nut diamonds.

If V has diamonds, then either

A) He's scared that I have nut diamonds and folds, or
B) He has lower diamonds and flats, or
C) V has nut diamonds or combo diamonds and flats sometimes but maybe 3bets this portion of his range sometimes

So while I think he's mostly flatting even with combo draws, let's say he's going to 3bet A7, AK, AQ, A5, and 57
(5 combos)

Now the non-nutted portion of his value range, seeing as my range is perceptually capped to an overpair (it's unlikely I'm opening UTG anything that really smashes this board other than 8s exactly), is 65(9 combos), 55 (3 combos), and 66 (3 combos), 15 combos of value hands that I have drawing nearly dead.

So 10 hands I have 35% equity against, 15 hands I have 95% equity against, and 5 combos of hands that I have 33% equity against, against total range I have about 70% equity.

But thats assuming these ranges are even proper for V.

I can shove and have at least 35% equity against the top of his range, or call and reevaluate OTT. The problem with just calling though is I'm denying myself $850 in value from the 15 combos (50%) of his non-nutted value range that will likely check back turn and river. On a similar note, I'm allowing the 5 combo draw combinations free equity.

If we limit his range to exclusively 4 combos of 97s and 6 combos of sets, it becomes a more apparent shove -- but that's still assuming he's capable of ever doing this without a straight.

Is this just a standard shove? Obviously this would be a lot different if the board was say, 678, as theres many more nutted combos.

Will post results tomorrow

I'm not folding top set ever. I think I am shoving here. Based on your previous description, it seems like V has 66 or 55. Seems like a cooler. If he has 97 so be it, but at least we have outs to fill up.

Sorta grunch (read up to end of flop action, but not thoughts yet).

I would lead out on this flop. I think you have a lot more value in that than a c/r, and a check through would be a disaster.

AP, I'm never folding against described V, and hate flatting, as so many cards kill our action or our hand. I probably make it $520, which should make getting the rest in pretty easy, could lead to confusion of "that's not a real raise" (it is) which can get Vs flustered, and might make him think he has FE if he shoves.

If he flats, shoving any turn. OK, off to read rest of thoughts.

Is everyone this deep? If not, is this the best seat, directly to the right of the one guy who is deep?

I'm not thrilled with the preflop raise if it's not going to thin the field. If the field is going 6ways to the flop, we basically have to hit a set to win, and if we're not comfortable getting stacks in with the 3rd nuts (2nd nuts if he can never have 74) when we do that, then aren't we better off limping in and having a much higher SPR where we can decide how much to put in postflop without necessarily playing for huge stacks?

Is the pot size right on the flop (either that or a pretty big rake)?

I'd probably just bet/bet/bet.

As played, how often does this game play deep and how often does this guy get into deep situations? Is this just a totally run-of-the-mill standard situation (i.e. playing this deep) or is this rare? If it's rare, I doubt too many reggish players start playing for stacks without the stone cold nuts here, even though our hand more looks like an overpair (so he could be overvaluing two pair, sets).

I've recently seen a couple of huge pots like this recently in my game, which at super loose wild tables can sometimes get multiple 300bb+ stacks going even though it is just a 100bb max BI. In both instances, a wildly loose preflop but ABCish postflop player hit junky two pairs and played for huge stacks against overpairs (who raised preflop) on the flop. Both players with overpairs were morons, and the Villain had a wild image. Do we have a wild image? Is this guy a moron?

GI'dprobablylieinmypreflopbedImadeandshipitG

with you raising UTG, you are repping an overpair most of the time here, so he could think that he is raising any 2 pair + hand for value against you.

With your range repped at mostly overpairs, I would shove here. Lots of times he is going to have combo draws and his is going to be far from drawing thin, but I think we are ahead a vast majority of the time and we can get him to call it off.

Post "sorta grunch" I don't think you're giving him anywhere near enough diamonds in his range as described, and he seems like the kind of V to b/3b a combo draw often. If he folds these hands, that is fine, as he surrenders a bunch of equity, and if he calls, also great, as we're ahead.

I just think a shove is too big here to get called by his bare draws or his pair+draws, and we want more value from them, which is why I advocate the rare "click it back" given how deep we are.

The problem I have with not shoving is there are 18 cards (ETA: 17, I guess we're not too scared of 5 ) that could come where we might outplay ourselves on the turn in (perhaps?) the biggest pot of the year.

Gtoomanyscarecards,imoG

Ya, very gross spot.


Can see OMC playing sets like this. Given reads and hand history, I would weight his hands heavely to sets, alot less draws since he likes to just call with draws.

GII

400bbs deep, in general, not cbetting here is a serious mistake, because you're polarizing your range too early when you check raise the flop like this, and you want to keep your range wide for as long as you can this deep, even if it's only for one additional bet/raise. (Example: ... if you cbet here, and than you 3bet his raise, you could still be FOS... But if you check/raise, and then 4bet, your range is so small and defined)

As played, we gotta make sure we keep in all of his sets, 400 bb's deep, people can find a way to fold bottom set, and that's our worse case scenario here... If I thought he'd fold bottom set to a jam, I'd give up the lead to let him barrel off 55's.

This is WORSE CASE SCENARIO (if he doesn't play 47o and 47s pre, were in much better shape)

board: 5s6d8d

distribution equity win shares tie shares
8h8c 46.608% 13570.00 272.50
79,47,55,66 53.392% 15585.00 272.50

There's $523 in the pot, it'll cost us $1002 to get us all in, for a total pot of $2352, so we only need 42% equity to break even, and we have 46% against his range, so we're committed to the hand... Now, if we know he won't fold 55's to a jam, get it all in right now.

Bet the flop yourself. Checking is madness. A million turn cards kill action / are bad (at least diamonds, 4, 7, 9). As played, this is a pretty trivial shove now.

You're not giving him hands like JJ and QQ?? I see older taggish villains playing overpairs super aggressively a lot, especially against a young guy who's been seen to raise draws a lot. Given description, this sounds like him. Don't let a card peel that scares him away. Just rip it in now.

C-bet flop.

As played, all-in.

Oh sorry your right, the potsize should be 78 (13x6).
I don't really know, whenever I play it I know I'm usually very deep, but I rarely play 1/3 anymore, usually just 2/5 and 5/T.
Naw, V is capable of overplaying a hand like AK with TPTK, but he knows I'm repping an overpair and theres no way hes ever stacking off with QQ/JJ here


I agree with the first statement, but I disagree with the amount of combo draws in his range. I literally think it's limited to exactly the combos I stated, with even AKdd and AQdd being questionable. He flatted earlier with open ender + NFD, almost a snap call -- indicating he's not very inclined to raise with drawing hands unless its an extremely good spot. Theres no other combo draws he'd call with pre. Despite that, its probably still a shove (or clickback)

Basically what I just said in my comment above this -- I think the diamond range I assigned him is very accurate. Considering I believe theres 0 bare draws in his range, a shove is very capable of getting called here.

Despite that though, I do think I might like a click back of like... $700ish better then a shove. Its big enough that hes never folding, and the pot will be $1500 with $400 behind, so I can call/shove any turn (even a diamond or one liner to the straight) and be getting correct odds.

Either way, I think I'm capable of repping overplayed aces/kings here and shoving

I agree

I'd normally agree with you that I should be leading here, but in a 6way pot on this board texture, I like a x/r much better. The reason being that any hand that hits this flop is 1) going to bet and protect his equity, and 2) The board supports many combinations of continuing hands facing a check raise that allow me to extract max value and play a big pot.

Additionally, its a board texture such that I'm going to get called a high percentage of the time with a lead, and will be forced into many positions where I simply have to check/fold the turn or river.

Defining my range too clearly isn't much of a concern because I'm rarely expecting to be forced into a situation where I'm actually needing to 4bet. Hes the only player deep enough where it would even be considered, and just so happened to 3bet me. I'd say this happens maybe 1/200 times I checkraise this flop.

My checkraise can always be FOS, though my continuing range past there obviously is not. Still, I can be overplaying 1 pair very easily and GII vs somebody who has, say, 100bb. Just happened to be the guy with 400bb.

Lol I'm the only person I've come across in a 1/3 game that is capable of folding a set (not trying to act conceited, and I've also yet to meet somebody else who correctly folded Kings pre) -- just to say almost nobody is folding a set, so maybe shoving is correct

I agree with your analysis and c/r is the right move. We have to expect someone to have hit this board and bet it. We cannot expect someone to raise our cbet. If you psb and get 3 callers, about half the deck will kill your action or cause you to c/f. I think betting is far more risky than playing a c/r.

I think you have a clear 4bet shove. When you call, the pot is already $700. Shoving $800 more isn't really all that different than a pot-sized raise.

Two things, if u are always check raising this flop, you are killing your cbet range, and if a good player sees you check the top of your range on flops 400bbs deep, you might find yourself in some really tough spots... I'm not saying never do it, but you should consider heavily balancing your play towards a cbet, as that's the range u want to protect the most.
Also, based on the pot size, this is a clear jam if the worst possible hand your opponent could have is 555 and will call it off, so if he could have flush draws and overpairs, this isn't a gross spot, this is an easy fist pump shovel.

I don't play this game enough to warrant factoring in balance/meta-game.
Also, having top set on a wet board, in a 6 multi-way pot, when it's very hard for me to have a nutted hand.. not a situation that comes up often enough where I need to balance. Against weak players you should really always play the most exploitatively.

Just givin' advise... When ur done crushing this game and u move up in limits, you're going to have to start considering some of these suggestions...

You should consider not only the immediate profitability of your choices, but also the consequences on the profitability on future hands... If you've determined that you're opponents never adjust and are completely brain dead, which happens, that's great.

But I tell you with absolute certainty, when you check/raise this flop, in my game, no one is three betting you 400bbs deep without 97 or 88, which is terrible for u.

Really shouldn't be folding sets on the flop in 1/3. Folding on the turn or river on occasion may be fine, but I'm almost always willing to get it in on the flop with sets unless there's some very strange dynamic (i.e. guy only ever has AA and there's an A on the flop).

On this hand, I'm more than happy to GII. Against a range of only sets, 74s and 97s you are 60% to win.

Shove.

I agree on cbetting flop.

AP would anyone just call V reraise and if we can dodge a scare card on the turn, shove or bet big?

I assume V will call your shove on flop with a FD. So why risk our entire stack when we can see a turn for $200 more?

Ch raise flop is really bad

AP never folding as middle set and bottom sets are in his range
Once you ch raise flop, then his re raise skews his range more to value hand as now your perceived range can include KdQd or NFD ( if he doesn't have a hand like Ad5d or Ad7d). He is going to have some combo draws with a pair like 4d5d or 5d7d which fair well against NFD, if he is putting you on AdXd

Against a straight you have 34% equity
Once you add sets your equity bumps to 50%
And if you sprinkle the obvious combo draws you get an additional 5% equity

Because so many turn cards can kill the action, I would just shove now and don't expect much fold equity against his range. But if you get 1-4% FE, then that's fine imo

As you correctly said his combo draws have a bunch of equity (40%) so if he lays them down he is surrendering a lot of equity which is a decent outcome imo

I shove also.

Regarding his range, if he can have 97 then he can usually have 57 (57dd would def play this way), and 56s. Some more hands to consider that we're beating.

I think the danger in this is potentially outplaying ourselves out of this huge pot in the cases where we still have the best hand when one of the 17 scare cards hit, especially being OOP. Plus flush draws (which we are a pretty big favourite against) might not put any more money in after whiffing the turn, so might as well attempt to get their money now.

GimoG

results?