Even if they have 10 outs, I really don't care. I'm still a huge favorite, and I want to realize that equity in the largest pot possible. Shutting down the hand loses money, period.

Two pair vs 1 pair hands should be a cash-cow in your LLSNL repetoire. If you aren't maximizing these opportunities, you're not crushing the game.

Shutting down this hand out of fear just isn't good poker.

So what you're saying is if the $150 isn't guaranteed you wouldn't take it? Also if villain has an overpair, there's absolutely zero guarantee he's putting in any more money given our line of calling the 3bet is already super strong.... Being risk-averse isn't a terrible thing.

Do we think he's putting in much more money on the river if he only ends up having one pair? He's much more likely to do so now if he has a draw to go with that pair, plus no reason for him to go nuts on the river with a showdownable hand (especially since a lot of cards are just as scary to him as they are to us), imo.

GcluelessNLnoobG

Agree.

.

I think our hand looks more like a draw than two pair. By a lot. 4-bet shoving ruins that. I'd like to convince V that we still have a draw. And in that case, I don't think a lot of cards are as scary to him.

If he does have an overpair, he was going for a check/raise on the flop and didn't get it. So after missing a street of value, he could very well could bet/fold the river. If he's drawing, or has something like 56, and believes we are also drawing, he could also very well bet/fold the river.

Maybe this V has never heard of Baluga theorem, but if you 4-bet his JJ on the flop, he's gonna puke. The chances he leads river if you call are not zero.

I believe my sentiment has been echoed. Nuff said, you get my point. I'm not an english major so pardon my double negative.

I actually didn't get your point, that's why I asked.

Way too much concern about our perceived range in the villain's eyes here IMO.

V has bet, then 3-bet. He likes his hand, and He is probably never folding. This spot is about deciding if we are ahead of his range, if so, we put the money in and fully expect him to call. "Keeping our range wide" should not even be a part of our thought process on the turn here unless we are facing a much more advanced opponent than this.

With what draw do we raise pre-flop, check flop, and raise turn on a rainbow board? T9? 76?

(Not personal -- I'm really curious what draw V can put us on.)

I'd believe this if there were some action on the flop. But given the non-action, I think we're still up against a range that is super-rich with over-pairs and 1pair hands that will bail if we 4-bet.

Against those hands we have huge equity, so I'm not in a rush to fold them out. With only one card to come, I'm willing to pay it off if he spikes a set on the end.

To me you just weigh...

A) He calls our turn shove
B) He leads river, or calls our bet on the end with a hand that's worse than two pair.

I gotta believe that if A happens, we're beat more often than we're crushing overpairs. And I gotta believe that the chances B happens is not 0

I don't think our turn raise is particularly scary to anyone since the flop checked through. If all of this action happened on the flop, I don't think we'd be crapping our pants yet. And the turn 5 only completes 96, and 64.

The OP claims that Hero has been playing quite actively in the <1hr he's been there.

JT, J9s, T9, 76, 56, 89, A6, 66, A8, K8s, and I'm probably missing some hands. If he's got JJ, he's probably targeting us for TT and 99 as well.

Given description of hero, V could put all of those hands in our range on the turn.

I think some folks ITT thread are also neglecting the possibility that a river card looks like a sweet bluffing opportunity for V.

I mean, if he's sitting there with TT or JJ and a K hits the river....is he worried about it? Does he think you will be?

How often does a Villain described as aggro show up with JJ/TT due to preflop?

And if he does has JJ/TT, is he raising the turn / betting the river for value? Or as a bluff?

GIthinkwe'reoverthinkingthings,imoG

It wasn't my range. I was responding to a range provided by another poster.

In my opinion V's range, and our perceived range are pretty much all over the place. If I were a spectator in this hand I'd say either a) both players have big hands and both had the same idea to tricky slow play the flop or b) both players just spiked a monster when an offsuit 5 turned *pffft* or c) both players have huge ranges that includes tons of garbage and they're now in a levelling war with each other because they both think the other guy has crap after checking the flop.

We happen to know that our hand is not garbage, but the jury is still out on v's hand. A 4-bet on the turn removes all doubt. We're often behind when called, and we surrender every dollar earned when V bluffs, or check/calls somewhat light on the river.

With no flush draw, the number of scary river cards is pretty low. And most of them are only mildly scary. A 4 completes some parts of v's range, but not others, so does a 9, etc.

If we're willing to get it all in here, I say we do it in a way that brings the weakest range possible for villain, not the strongest.