V: MAWG, played with him a couple of times, pretty aggresive, plays a wide range.
H: has been only at the table for an hr or so, been opening a decent amount of pots, playing aggressive post.

1/3 10 handed

SB V (500)
CO H (500)

H has 78

UTG limps, folds to H who makes it 20, V in SB calls, BB folds, UTG folds

Flop ($46) 783r
V checks, H checks (decided to play this flop tricky bc it doesn't hit our raising range much. thoughts? we have this board pretty much locked down, and he's going to fold most of his range to a bet, give him a chance to catch up?)

Turn ($46) 5
V bets out $20, H raises to $60, V 3! to $160, H?

I would have bet the flop because I expect him to call at least one bet on this board.

As played, against V who is "pretty aggresive (stet), plays a wide range" you can gii now or wait until turn if there is any chance he'll fold a draw or worse two pair on flop.

Any more info on H or V? Any showdowns? Any re-raises with showdowns?

I'm cool with preflop. Lately I've actually been wondering if overlimping in this spot is fine too, and I'm not convinced either way.

SPR is 10ish against an aggro guy who has a wide range (and might even show up with a ragged two pair here) and we have a somewhat disguised hand. Pretty sure I feel committed here unless there is a bad run out. In order to play for stacks, we'll need some PSBs on the flop/turn, so that's what I'd do (unless I think a smaller "normal" small cbet will induce a raise). So I'd lean towards a PSB on the flop. I can't stand our check back.

As played on the turn, I'd probably just ship but I guess it depends on how aggro this guy is and how much he can overvalue hands. Since he plays a wide range, he could have a worse two pair. He could also be getting aggro with a pair + draw. Although our check back flop / raise turn kinda looks like a monster and yet he seems to be cool playing for stacks; but it's possible he has us on a weirdly played overpair. If we're continuing, I like getting this done now due to all the ugly straightening cards that can come to kill action/hand.

GcluelessNLnoobG

H showed down QQ and ATs prior to the hand in question.

He probably puts you on an over-pair or similar and probably has two-pair or a pair and straight draw type hand. Agree w/ gg, just gii now. Doubt he's folding.

If he shows up with a made straight or set, it's a bit of a cooler. Bink river!

It's like you're trying to invent confirmation bias out of thin air.

Definitely gotta bet the flop, the hand plays itself after that. I'm never folding.

As played, you can call here leaving you with one PSB on the river, which I would be looking to get in. Probably a good chance he fires again on the river, but if not, you can put the money in yourself.

There aren't many draws he could have. T9 or some kind of 6x are the only things that makes sense. So there aren't many hands to victimize by shoving on the turn. Everything else should be willing to put chips in on the river, regardless of what the card is.

And if he does have a draw, he's shown plenty of willingness to bluff with it. I'd rather keep under-repping my hand and let this guy blast the river. We have position, so if he doesn't bet, we can just do it for him.

Did the turn card complete the rainbow, or did it bring out a flush draw?

completed the rainbow

Given this, the Villain's range just got quite a bit better. He's rarely semi-bluffing with a draw or pair+draw.

You are not condescending at all (sarcasm, in case you don't understand). Glad you are trolling me, though. It's a huge compliment. Makes me feel special.

Too bad you don't use reads to play poker -- it might really improve your game.

What if H had said: I showed down 89 and 56? Or, V has shown down sets and straights and other big hands and only raised with the nuts?

You are right, berninader, I don't know what I was thinking. Bored, I guess.

seems like the general consensus is "H should've cbet the flop". so for the sake of discussion:

Flop ($46) 783r
H bets $30, V calls

Turn ($106) 5
H bets $80, V jams, H?

I also dislike the checkback on the flop.

I guess he's repping a str8 or a set, mostly the set. If he is only on a draw/combo draw - he's really pressing it. The rainbow board takes most of the possible draws away. Would he play a 67 68 9T draw this strongly.... from his POV you could still have a slowplayed set in your range and the re-raise opens it up for you to push. I liked the raise - but now I'm leaning to letting it go.

Not really sure if betting the flop makes the later streets easier.

We bet the flop because we have a pretty good hand and we want to start getting chips into the (most likely attempting to move towards playing for stacks), plus there are draws that could start paying us off right away (with the flop being the most likely street a draw pays off). We don't accomplish any of that by checking behind.

GcluelessNLnoobG

With the checkback... by the turn the combos that have you beat are:
88 * 1
77 * 1
33 * 3
55 * 3
69s * 4
64s * 4
With the bet and call on the flop you likely eliminate 55(3) and 64s(4) or 7 out of 16. You might also be able to eliminate the sets (that perhaps would have 3 bet). That would only leave the 69 - and swing me toward an uncomfortable call

Purple font this time - cause you're special

All I was trying to say is that while reads are invaluable at the table, here they are pretty worthless. You weren't there, and if the hero had any useful information, he would have put it in the OP. Using two example hands to sway your decision in this hand, or to glean some kind of level 2 read on someone you've only read about is pretty dubious.

Let's just say that we're never folding this hand, so there is no reason to convince V to fold. No flush draws are possible. The straight draw combos are few, and unlikely to have not led the flop given what little we know about the villain. The flop check is not consistent with a bet/3-bet line on the turn if he holds a draw, so I discount the possibility further.

We have a great hand, one card to come, very few draws possible, and an aggressive V. Just calm down, let this guy hang himself. And if he doesn't, we still have a chance to attack.

Grunch

Well we definitely got what we wanted. The hands we're worried about are 69s (V may be playing wide but I want to say suited two gappers are going to be the widest he'd play), 75s, 88, 77, 33, and 55 for hands that have us beat. I also think that V could have been trying to trap with an overpair like 99-JJ. Really gross spot but I think we just stuff it in here.

Of the hands you listed, some already beat us. 75s and overpairs have outs to win, but very very few. With known cards removed, 88,77,33, and 55 only account for 8 of the 28 possible combos you mentioned. And we're only drawing dead against one of them.

The other 20 combos, we beat. 18 of them are overpairs. How much does he like an overpair if we 4bet shove? On the other hand, if we just flat the turn and keep our own range wide, there is some possibility V leads again on the river.

Shoving this turn uses Baluga's Theorem the wrong way.

Checking back OTF is unfathomable to me.

I think the lesson from this thread is that checking the flop is unquestionably terrible.

Even on your corrected, hypothetical flop you bet too little.

However, in that hypo I do think Baluga applies and we should strongly consider a fold.


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True, but Baluga's theorem would also suggest we fold in this event. I do not think folding is the correct play as we are more often than not ahead in this spot. I do agree that calling isn't a terrible line, but if and when I get stacked in this situation I'd rather be the raiser than the caller.... not that it matters at all, but meh. Plus if V is semibluffing a pair and a draw or has an overpair we can get them to potentially fold and avoid a bad river.

Baluga's theorem applies to situations where we hold 1 pair. We have top two, so Baluga isn't suggesting that WE do anything.

In this case, Baluga would apply to the V, who we hope has an overpair. If we 4-bet the turn, how good does he feel about it?

C'mon man, really? If he's still got a draw on the turn, or 1 pair plus a draw, he's got dog-crap for equity. And why do you think he has a draw? It was YOU that came up with the range that is mostly sets and overpairs. 18 of those 28 combos are overpairs. Each one has two outs to improve on the river, and is probably thinking it doesn't need to improve. You really want that hand to fold?

if he binks a full house on the river, just pay it off.

Each overpair would actually have 6 outs to improve for the river. Regardless, I don't mind getting a fold from said overpair. If we're flatting the 3bet (which is already a fairly strong line on the turn), whats the chance V is gonna stuff the river or call a river jam himself on a blank? I'd rather give him a chance to make the right play and we collect $150 on the turn than to call and let him get there and play it correctly. Or conversely, he calls with said dog**** equity and we get 6 outted I'm fine with that, too.