Quote:
Originally Posted by RobertUCooper
So first for theory, the preflop ranges are weird because of the dynamics so I think a bunch depends on how wide you are iso'ing the button and therefore how wide you are defending vs. 3 bet. I think your defend range is going to be about 5-7%ish, but it depends on things, like are you going to pure 4 bet QQ+/AK or not (especially if you trap AA sometimes), are you going to pure call/pure fold/split a hand like ATs, etc. How OOL do you think he is getting or is he a nit here, etc.
So given ranges flop you don't want to have a raising range which I'm sure you're aware of. On turn JJ is a pure call unless its your exact suits blocking both flush draws in which case solver mixes 50/50 based on inputs I gave. You have some other hands to snap off turn with (Txcc, 88, TT, QQ) and then closer hands (JJ, AK/AQ with nfd, AT no flush draw).
When it comes to him I think it is super obvious, but this is a spot where his flop betting size is on point but on turn he wants to bet 60%ish turn 60%ish river, going a little larger on turn is definitely fine but jamming solver will almost never do and a human definitely shouldn't do either because the size makes no sense.
So exploitatively depends if this feels like KK trying to fold out equity or AQcc trying to maximize fold equity knowing he always has outs.
It's funny because was thinking about it before the solver and I really like calling QQ+, Tx with clubs, and all JJ combos besides your specific one and folding your combo. But if you call/fold can't be a huge mistake either way.
Also one other thing to note, if he uses a normal size the solver is going to jam hands like red JJ for equity denial and its not intuitive for a human who views JJ as a bluff catcher but I agree with the solver
Thanks for running this.
Agree his turn sizing doesn’t make a ton of sense. I ran solver input and it had him 2x pot shoving 0% of the time. Therefore I couldn’t get useful output for my response to his line — solver had me folding 100% of my combo of JJ facing 2x pot, but I sorta suspect this output is gibberish because solver gives 0 weight to this branch of the tree. I did give the 66% pot options on turn/river and I noted that my combo of JJ was a mix between call/fold on turn facing 66% pot. Is this what you found as well?
Agree it’s a weird spot due to the dynamic with the whale and due to my large open over 2 limps. Thinking back, I wonder if his perception of my opening range might be wider than my opening range actually is because he may just assume I open a standard BTN range, when in reality I’m opening narrower than usual due to 3-blind configuration and 2 limpers. OTOH he possibly noticed the 7x size is larger than I’d been using in the past. So, maybe he’s made the correct deduction on my range being rather tighter. IDK it’s a weird dynamic and I wish we had more history so that I could be more confident he knows how I’m playing and visa versa.
Just in a vacuum, if I’m opening AJ+,KQ,88+,QTs+,T9s+,ATs,KTs on the BTN and face a 3bet at this big 4.5x size, how wide should I be defending? Is there a set percentage of my range that I should defend? I feel that hands like ATs,KJs,AQo are cusp hands. I probably would defend ATs,AQo (but don’t love it), and fold KJs-, but I have no idea if that’s right. IDK if I should defend JTs,QJs or not.
Last edited by ChaosInEquilibrium; 10-11-2021 at 10:22 AM.