Hero UTG ($800) - LAG image. Has been caught raising 74o on BTN and 3bet squeezing QTo.
Villain BB ($260) - Old man. Very loose passive. Probably the weakest player on the table. Has been caught flatting a $75 preflop raise with 54o and then saying "I only called because I was short-stacked".
Yes. Shove river and hope to get called by all of his Ax hands.
While he could have a flush, have to discount it a bit because Ah is in your hand and you'd have to imagine he'd lead river once the flush card hits. 5x is possible, but if that's possible Tx is there too.
let's discount villain's flushes because; you have the nut blocker which means he has no Axs that became flushes (and that's kinda a big deal in these low stakes live games.. these dudes love their suited aces)
you also could imagine that the player may decide to raise his draws at some % greater than zero, even if it's not a huge % it's got to be SOME of the time??
And you could imagine some villains check calling the flop w a flush draw "because they have two cards coming" and then check folding the turn "because they only have one card coming" (that makes little sense because he only had one card in the first place if he was going to fold the turn but, it is a thing people say)
and you can imagine a player who won't draw to non nut flush draws on the turn and/or who will not call a turn bet with a flush draw once the board pairs
So these draws are really more in your range than in your opponent's range IMO.
That does still hurt your attempts to get value as he can likely imagine you were betting a draw and got there. Your range has a lot of good hands in it which would normally mean you have to be careful about going for value too thinly.
But your range also has a lot of worse hands that could have bet flop and turn for value and also some hands that were bluffing and missed (KQ for instance).
You beat all kinds of hands your opponent can have and call you with including all the Ax (remember that the really bad Ax actually improved to Aces up with a ten kicker) so A3 is effectively the same hand as A9.
You can def get here with better and worse hands so it wouldn't be an awful candidate as a bluff catcher so I don't hate a check and call against an aggressive opponent but if your opponent is going to make mostly calling mistakes and can't be expected to bluff often then you should tend to bet pretty thin for value against him.
I see no other size that makes sense, i think it's a great value jam.
I would typically fold AJo- in EP at a full table (although I guess at a 7 handed table it's more playable).
SPR is 8 and board is drawy, my plan would be to hammer the flop/turn to setup a river shove unless board runs out bad.
I like the big flop/turn bets (although I probably eke out just that much more immediate value by doing a full PSB).
We have a FOS image and have been caught a few times, so I'd go ahead and ship the rest in on the river. Obviously not the best river card but flushes sometimes donk (for fear of us checking behind) and Ax (and sometimes even underpairs) are still snapping us off.
