Quote:
Originally Posted by Mlark
Very close here not having a ton of history with villain. For that sizing I think we can bluff catch. Villain could have bluffs and he could just have 8x and not know what to do. He could also have AA-TT or Qx.
What is the rake structure? Unraked 3bet or call are probably fine. Raked I probably lean more towards 3bet or fold.
It is an interesting thought to bluff jam, but I think we beat too much. Maybe 7d7x could bluff jam, but that is an ambitious call on the flop multiway. We also won't have too many flushes here. I think JJ, TT, might be too thin of a range to target by jamming 99 here. I think he would have to have Qx and fold to a jam here, and it's not a huge size raise for the pot size.
I think the bluff jam is thin but these small sizings make it look like his range is something like this. AA-6. Kk-6. Jj-6. 1010-6. AQ-12. AK with the Ad-4 Maybe im putting him on too narrow of a range? I think a lot of those hands fold to a 5x $250 jam on the river. AA and KK would probably call 75% in my games but AQ would fold 75% 1010,JJ would fold near 100%.
Arbitrary numbers and percentages I know, but everything is arbitrarty and unknown. 12 combos call you lose to 4.5AA 4.5KK 3AQ 24 combos fold you would otherwise lose to if you call 1.5AA. 1.5KK. 9AQ. 6 1010 and 6 JJ.
Maybe im not giving enough credit to him calling more of those hands like JJ that contain a diamond?